FOCUS: THE FUTURE OF TRADE, CHINA, THE US AND EUROPE – DEGLOBALISATON?

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A man wearing a protective mask is seen inside the Shanghai Stock Exchange building, as the country is hit by a new coronavirus outbreak, at the Pudong financial district in Shanghai, China. (File/Reuters)
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Updated 19 June 2020
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FOCUS: THE FUTURE OF TRADE, CHINA, THE US AND EUROPE – DEGLOBALISATON?

What happened:
On Tuesday, global COVID-19 cases passed 8 million, while economies across the world continued their reopening process. Fears of a second wave have been mounting with the virus spreading again fast in Beijing and Texas, Florida and California and elsewhere.
US first-time jobless claims for the week ending June 10 came in at 1.5 million, a figure only 58,000 lower than preceding weeks and higher than expected. This marks the 13th week running of job losses.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a two-day testimony in Congress. He warned against withdrawing fiscal stimulus too quickly. He expects a full economic recovery to be unlikely before there are solutions to the health crisis. He also warned that it would take time before the labor market went back to pre-pandemic levels. He had his Mario Draghi (president of the European Central Bank who promised to do everything in his power to preserve the euro) “whatever it takes” moment, saying that the Fed was “committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy in this challenging time.” He reiterated his skepticism about negative rates and said that the Fed was in the early stages of evaluating yield curve control. He deplored racial and other inequalities.
After the losses toward the end of last week, markets traded moderately up for this week.


US retail sales increased by 17.7 percent month-on-month after having declined by 14.7 percent in April. This marks the highest jump since 1992.
UK government debt reached 100 percent of GDP for the first time since 1963, while retail sales in May rose by 12 percent after having fallen by 14 percent in April.
Oil performed better this week than last: Brent continued to trade well above $40/b and WTI pierced the 40-dollar mark. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC+ (a grouping between OPEC and their 10 allies led by Russia) met on June 18 and found compliance of 87 percent, which is higher than anticipated. Iraq and Kazakhstan have come up with a compensation schedule for their compliance shortfall of May/June during the third quarter.
The IEA forecast oil demand to fall by 7.6 percent in 2020 and only grow 5.7 percent in 2021. The agency predicted that demand would not reach 2019 levels until well into 2022. While that may sound bearish, the IEA has increased the forecast by 800,000 bpd compared to its May predictions.


Background:
China has announced it would increase purchases of US soybeans, corn and ethanol to keep phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries on track.
This followed a tweet by US President Donald Trump in which he flagged complete decoupling from China as an option. While the president is known for letting off steam via Twitter, the rhetoric between the world’s largest and second largest economies is getting increasingly acrimonious — especially on the trade front. This is set to continue during the presidential election as both candidates assume a hawkish stance toward Beijing.
The EU, the world’s largest trading bloc, also wants to level its playing field with China. The commission envisages preventing state-subsidised companies from bidding for public contracts as well as limiting their options when taking over strategic European companies. However, the measures do not mention China explicitly.
Globalization and trade have been the drivers behind lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and with it bringing significant global economic growth. However, the current political climate coupled with the pandemic may lead to a realignment and partial localization of supply chains, which has implications for business practices as well as demand for raw materials, particularly oil.
Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder and co-chief investment officer, warned about a lost decade for US equities if returns fall victim to deglobalization and margin compression — eroding the profit potential beyond a pandemic-induced cyclical downturn.
Where we go from here:
On Friday, the EU is holding a virtual summit to discuss the proposed €750 billion pandemic rescue package. It envisages the commission borrowing funds and appropriating them via its budget, distributing €500 billion as grants and €250 billion as loans. The proposal is supported by France and Germany and opposed by the so-called “frugal 4” — Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and Austria. They consider this package a defacto mutualization of debt. Some of the most heavily indebted Mediterranean countries, which were hardest hit by the pandemic, do not think that it goes far enough. Markets have priced the package into their outlook. However, while it has a good chance of passing eventually, reaching consensus will neither be easy nor fast.
June 19 is quadruple witching day when US futures and options expire simultaneously for single-stock options, single-stock futures, and stock-index options and stock-futures. This means a forced turnover of $48 billion, leading to heightened volatility.
On June 24, the IMF will release its revised economic forecasts for 2020 and beyond. They are expected to be far more pessimistic than the minus 3 percent the fund predicted for 2020 in April.

— Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources.
Twitter: @MeyerResources


WHO says no medical supplies received in Gaza for 10 days

Updated 3 min 16 sec ago
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WHO says no medical supplies received in Gaza for 10 days

GENEVA: The World Health Organization said Friday that it has received no medical supplies in the Gaza Strip for 10 days as Israel pursues a new offensive against Hamas.
Israel’s closure of the Rafah crossing into Gaza has caused “a difficult situation,” WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic said. “The last medical supplies that we got in Gaza was before May 6.”
Israeli troops entered the city of Rafah on May 7 to extend their offensive against Hamas over the militant group’s attacks seven months earlier. They closed the Rafah crossing into Egypt that is crucial for humanitarian supplies.
With UN agencies warning of a growing risk of famine in Gaza, the Kerem Shalom and Erez crossings from Israel are also virtually shut down.
Jasarevic said the biggest concern was over fuel needed to keep clinics and hospitals running. Gaza’s health facilities need up to 1.8 million liters of fuel a month to keep operating.
The spokesman said only 159,000 liters had entered Rafah since the border closure. “This is clearly not sufficient,” he added, highlighting how only 13 out of 36 hospitals across the Palestinian territory were now “partially” operating.
“Hospitals still functioning are running out of fuel, and that puts so many lives at danger,” said Jasarevic. “Current military operations in Rafah are putting countless lives at risk.”
The Hamas attack on October 7 resulted in the death of more than 1,170 people in Israel, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures. Out of 252 people taken hostage, 128 are still held inside Gaza, but the army says 38 have died.
More than 35,300 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in the Palestinian territory since the war broke out, according to data provided by the health ministry of Hamas-run Gaza.


EU bans 4 more Russian media outlets from broadcasting in the bloc, citing disinformation

Updated 4 min 50 sec ago
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EU bans 4 more Russian media outlets from broadcasting in the bloc, citing disinformation

  • The EU has already suspended Russia Today and Sputnik among several other outlets since February 2022

BRUSSELS: The European Union on Friday banned four more Russian media outlets from broadcasting in the 27-nation bloc for what it calls the spread of propaganda about the invasion of Ukraine and disinformation as the EU heads into parliamentary elections in three weeks.
The latest batch of broadcasters consists of Voice of Europe, RIA Novosti, Izvestia and Rossiyskaya Gazeta, which the EU claims are all under control of the Kremlin. It said in a statement that the four are in particular targeting “European political parties, especially during election periods.”
Belgium already last month opened an investigation into suspected Russian interference in June’s Europe-wide elections, saying its country’s intelligence service has confirmed the existence of a network trying to undermine support for Ukraine.
The Czech government has imposed sanctions on a number of people after a pro-Russian influence operation was uncovered there. They are alleged to have approached members of the European Parliament and offered them money to promote Russian propaganda.
Since the war started in February 2022, the EU has already suspended Russia Today and Sputnik among several other outlets.

 

 


Hezbollah uses new weapons in Israel attacks

Updated 33 min 12 sec ago
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Hezbollah uses new weapons in Israel attacks

  • The Israeli army said three soldiers were wounded in an attack on Thursday
  • Hezbollah has a large arsenal of weapons, that it has expanded significantly in recent years

BEIRUT: Lebanon’s powerful armed group Hezbollah announced on Thursday it had used a drone capable of firing rockets at a military position in one of its latest attacks in northern Israel.
Israel and Hezbollah have been involved in near-daily exchanges of fire since the war between Israel and Hamas broke out on October 7.
Hezbollah announced it had used an “armed attack drone” equipped with two S-5 rockets on a military position in Metula in northern Israel.
The Iran-backed group published a video showing the drone heading toward the position, where tanks were stationed, with the footage showing the moment the two rockets were released followed by the drone exploding.
It was the first time they had announced the use of this type of weapon since the cross-border exchanges with Israel erupted in October.
The Israeli army said three soldiers were wounded in Thursday’s attack.
Hezbollah-affiliated media said that the drone’s warhead consisted of between 25 and 30 kilogrammes (55 and 66 pounds) of high explosive.
Military analyst Khalil Helou told AFP that the use of drones offers Hezbollah the ability to launch the attack from within Israeli territory, as they can fly at low altitudes, evading detection by radar.
Hezbollah also announced on Wednesday that it had launched a strike using “attack drones” on a base west of the northern Israeli town of Tiberias.
That attack was the group’s deepest into Israeli territory since fighting flared, analysts said.
In recent weeks, the Lebanese militant group has announced attacks that it has described as “complex,” using attack drones and missiles to hit military positions, as well as troops and vehicles.
It has also used guided and heavy missiles, such as Iran’s Burkan and Almas missiles, as well as the Jihad Mughniyeh missile, named after a Hezbollah leader killed by Israeli fire in Syria in 2015.
Helou, a retired general, said that depite its new weaponry, Hezbollah still relied primarily on Kornet anti-tank missiles with a range of just five to eight kilometers.
They also use the Konkurs anti-tank missile, which can penetrate Israel’s Iron Dome defense system.
Hezbollah has a large arsenal of weapons, that it has expanded significantly in recent years.
The group has said repeatedly that it has advanced weapons capable of striking deep inside Israeli territory.
Analysts have described the skirmishes between Israel and Hamas as a war of “attrition,” in which each side is testing the other, as well as their own tactics.
Hezbollah has expanded the range of its attacks in response to strikes targeting its munitions and infrastructure, or its military commanders.
One such Israeli strike on Wednesday targeted the village of Brital in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley, with the Israeli army later announcing it had hit a “terror target related to Hezbollah’s precision missile project.”
Helou said Hezbollah’s targeting of the base near Tiberias and its use of the rocket-equipped drone “can be interpreted as a response to the attack on Brital, but it remains a shy response compared to the group’s capabilities.”
He suggested that the Israeli strike likely hit a depot for Iranian missiles that had not yet been used by Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah does not wish to expand the circle of the conflict,” Helou said.
“What is happening is a war of attrition through which it is trying to distract the Israeli army” from Gaza and seeking to prevent it from “launching a wide-ranging attack on Lebanon.”


Hoor Al-Qasimi appointed artistic director of the Biennale of Sydney

Updated 45 min 28 sec ago
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Hoor Al-Qasimi appointed artistic director of the Biennale of Sydney

DUBAI: The Biennale of Sydney announced this week that Emirati creative Hoor Al-Qasimi will become its artistic director for 2026.

The 25th edition of the biennale will run from March 7 to June 8.

Since its inception in 1973, the biennale has grown to become one of the longest-running exhibitions of its kind and was the first biennale established in the Asia-Pacific region.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

A post shared by IBA (@biennialassociation)

Al-Qasimi created the Sharjah Art Foundation in 2009 and is currently its president and director. Throughout her career, she acquired extensive experience in curating international biennials, including the second Lahore Biennale in 2020 and the UAE Pavilion at the 56th Venice Biennale in 2015.

In 2003, she co-curated the sixth edition of Sharjah Biennial and has remained the director of the event since.

Al-Qasimi has been president of the International Biennial Association since 2017 and is also president of the Africa Institute. She has previously served as a board member for MoMA PS1 in New York and the UCCA Center for Contemporary Art in Beijing, among other roles.

She is also the artistic director of the sixth Aichi Triennale, scheduled to take place in Japan in 2025.


US bike shops boomed early in the pandemic. It’s been a bumpy ride for most ever since

Updated 18 May 2024
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US bike shops boomed early in the pandemic. It’s been a bumpy ride for most ever since

  • A surge of interest in cycling in the US pushed sales up 64 percent to $5.4 billion in 2020

For the nation’s bicycle shops, the past few years have probably felt like the business version of the Tour de France, with numerous twists and turns testing their endurance.
Early in the pandemic, a surge of interest in cycling pushed sales up 64 percent to $5.4 billion in 2020, according to the retail tracking service Circana. It wasn’t unheard of for some shops to sell 100 bikes or more in a couple of days.
The boom didn’t last. Hobbled by pandemic-related supply chain issues, the shops sold all their bikes and had trouble restocking. Now, inventory has caught up, but fewer people need new bikes. So, bicycle makers have been slashing prices to clear out the excess. It all adds up to a tough environment for retailers, although there are a few bright spots like gravel and e-bikes.
“The industry had a hard time keeping up with the demand for a couple of years, but then demand slowed as the lockdowns ended, and then a lot of inventory started showing up,” said Stephen Frothingham, editor-in-chief of Bicycle Retailer & Industry News. “So now for the last, a year and a half, the industry has struggled with having too much inventory, at the supplier level, at the factory level, at the distributor level, at the retail level.”
In 2023, bike sales totaled $4.1 billion, up 23 percent from 2019, but down 24 percent from 2020, according to Circana. The path out of the pandemic has been uneven — national retailers, such as REI and Scheels, are stabilizing faster than independent bike stores, said Matt Tucker, director of client development for Circana’s sports equipment business.
For John McDonell, owner of Market Street Cycles on the popular thoroughfare of Market Street in San Francisco, the shift to hybrid work brought about by the pandemic has been particularly tough on business. There used to be 3,000 bikes passing by his shop a day during the summer. That’s fallen to below 1,000, with fewer people commuting to work.
According to Pacer.ai, which tracks people’s movements based on cellphone usage, San Francisco lags all other major cities when it comes to workers returning to offices, with April office visits still down 49 percent compared with April 2019.
“Our downtown is still a wasteland,” McDonell said.
Independent bike stores not only have to compete with national chains, but increasingly, bike makers such as Specialized and Trek as well. They’ve been buying bike shops and selling their bikes directly to consumers, essentially cutting out the middleman. Frothingham estimates there are now around a thousand bike shops in the country owned by either Trek or Specialized.
“They’ve got the money to absorb the fact that bike stores, you know, are not a super profitable thing, and in the process, they’ve also been able to cut us out of it,” McDonell said.
McDonell has been forced to cut down to using a skeleton crew of himself and another staffer, down from five previously. His dream of selling his shop to a younger bike enthusiast when he retires is fading. He might close his store when his lease is up in a couple of years.
“Now I am just trying to land it with both engines on fire and trying not to lose money on my way out,” he said.
In Boulder, Colorado, Douglas Emerson’s bike shop, University Bicycles, is faring better, boosted by its location in one of the most popular places to ride bikes in the country. He’s had the shop for 39 years and employs 30 staffers.
Like other bike stores, the pandemic spurred a frenzy of bike buying at University Bicycles. Emerson recalls selling 107 bikes in 48 hours. But right after the boom, sales slowed dramatically because inventory was scarce, and rentals died down since no one was traveling.
“It became a struggle right after the boom,” Emerson said. “And since then, the manufacturers have overproduced. And they’ve slashed prices dramatically which is good for the consumer. But with the small shops they’re often not able to take advantage of those prices.”
Emerson says the shop reached a “saturation point” – everyone who wanted a bike bought one. Now, he’s selling those customers accessories like clothing, helmets and locks. His shop has returned to its 2019 sales numbers.
University Bicycles has also benefited from some of the shifts in buying patterns. Continued high demand for e-bikes and a growing demand for children’s bikes have helped. And gravel bikes, which are designed to be ridden both on paved and gravel roads, are replacing road bikes as a popular seller.
John Ruger, who has been a cyclist for 50 years and is a loyal University Bicycles customer, hasn’t bought a bike in 10 years, but plans on taking advantage of the current prices to buy a gravel bike. A top gravel bike he’s eyeing that would normally sell for $12,000 to $14,000 is currently retailing for $8,000, he said.
“The timing is good,” he said. “I can get a bike now because they’re less expensive and my bikes are getting old.”
Shawna Williams, owner of Free Range Cycles in Seattle, Washington, didn’t have the sales surge others did because her 700 square foot shop was so small she took customers only by appointment from March 2020 to May 2021.
But Williams did have to deal with the eventual shortages. She spent a lot of time “checking in with other shops to see if we could buy something, even at retail, from them, just in order to get a repair done or a build done.”
She adapted by offering more services like repairs and maintenance to offset lower sales of bikes. The maneuvering helped her keep overall sales steady even throughout the pandemic.
“Bike sales, the way that I have kind of framed the shop, are an awesome bonus, but we really need to be sustaining the shop through repair and, like, thoughtful accessory sales,” Williams said. “A bike sale to me, if we do things well, that means creating a customer for life.”