Can Israeli PM Netanyahu achieve his stated war objectives with Rafah assault?

For the Netanyahu government, however, Rafah represents a last opportunity to declare the war won and, in the process, to ensure Netanyahu has a political future. (AFP). (AP)
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Updated 13 May 2024
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Can Israeli PM Netanyahu achieve his stated war objectives with Rafah assault?

  • Despite claim there are four brigades in Rafah, it is unclear how many operational fighters Hamas still has
  • Some Israeli analysts say Israel needs to make Hamas ideologically and politically irrelevant, not do the opposite

LONDON: This week, before-and-after imagery released by US commercial satellite company Planet Labs showed the extent of the damage inflicted in just one day by Israeli forces on the outskirts of Rafah, close to the Egyptian border.

This is not the city of Rafah itself — yet. Awaiting a resolution of the political standoff between their government and the US, which has threatened to stop supplying ammunition if Israel invades Rafah, the 98th Airborne and the 162nd Armored divisions are massing to the south of the city.

In the satellite imagery captured on Tuesday, groups of tanks can be seen in the vicinity of the Rafah crossing, which Israeli troops occupied and closed on Monday, and grouped in several other strategic locations.

While they are waiting, however, they have been laying waste to much of the surrounding infrastructure and indulging in some symbolic wanton vandalism: in a video released on Tuesday a tank rolls over a “I love Gaza” sign near the crossing.




Netanyahu has gambled his political future on two objectives tied to a continuation of the devastating and murderous assault on Gaza — the destruction of Hamas and the killing of its top commanders. (AFP)

The contrast between the satellite images taken on Monday and Tuesday is striking. In the course of one day, hundreds of homes, commercial buildings, agricultural plots and other structures on dozens of sites either side of the Salah Al-Din highway were destroyed.

“This,” said a spokesman for the Israeli government on Tuesday, “is the beginning of our mission to take out the last four Hamas brigades in Rafah.”

But although Netanyahu has gambled his political future on two objectives tied to a continuation of the devastating and murderous assault on Gaza — the destruction of Hamas and the killing of its top commanders — after seven months of all-out warfare those objectives seem increasingly unattainable.

Despite the Israeli claim that there are four brigades in Rafah, it is unclear exactly how many operational fighters Hamas still has, or exactly where they are. It is also not clear if they have chosen, as some commentators have suggested, to make a “last stand” in Rafah, or even, after seven months of war, if they have the weapons and ammunition necessary to do so.




Groups of tanks were seen in the vicinity of the Rafah crossing. (AFP)

Even less certain is the location of Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar, from whom nothing has been heard since the invasion of Gaza began.

Sinwar, Israel’s public enemy number one, has become a ghost, so much so that on Thursday US National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby made a public plea for him to “come clean about what his intentions are.”

Writing in The Spectator this week, Middle East analyst Jonathan Spyer suggested that, “contrary to what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might wish, Sinwar, his brother Mohammed, and the Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif are almost certainly not currently besieged in a bunker in Rafah, surrounded and obliged to either agree to the Egyptian (ceasefire) proposal or be crushed beneath the treads of the 98th and the 162nd.”

In fact, added Spyer, director of research at the Middle East Forum, “it is not even certain if the Hamas leaders and their hostages are even still in the Rafah area, or ... in some other part of the strip.”

Gaza, although barely larger than the small Mediterranean island of Malta, has nevertheless proved to be a frustrating landscape for Israeli operations.




“The only way to defeat the Hamas ideology is with a better ideology, and that is to make the two-state solution real to Palestinians,” said Gershon Baskin. (AFP)

On Thursday it emerged that even before the Oct. 7 attack, Israel had tried, and failed, to assassinate both Sinwar and Al-Deif, the commander-in-chief of Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades.

In remarks made to a Jewish organization in the US and broadcast on Israeli television’s Channel 12, Israel’s former military chief of staff Aviv Kochavi said a perceived “change with Hamas” in 2021 had led to the decision to try to kill the two men.

“We tried, and it’s hard,” he was reported as having said.

“In a densely populated, heavily built-up area it is very hard. So, we had been working for months in order to procure the operation but we couldn’t.”

Kochavi also added his voice to the growing chorus in Israel critical of Netanyahu’s increasingly unpopular determination to continue military operations in Gaza.




Yahya Sinwar, Israel’s public enemy number one, has become a ghost. (AFP)

“I don’t think there is a way to bring back the hostages without halting for the time being the war,” he said. Furthermore, he added, “I don’t think we can achieve complete victory in months — forget it, it will take years.”

For the Netanyahu government, however, Rafah represents a stage for political theatre — a last opportunity to declare the war won and, in the process, to ensure Netanyahu has a political future.

INNUMBERS

• 120 People taken hostage by Hamas on Oct. 7 still unaccounted for.

• 252 Israelis and foreigners taken hostage in the attack, according to Israel.

• 80,000 People known to have fled Rafah since last Monday after Israeli warning.

“They're looking for a victory,” said Yossi Mekelberg, a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Program at London-based policy institute Chatham House.

“They are looking for a photo op: ‘Here is his head, we’ve cut off the head of Hamas, now it’s all over’.”

Although the message from Biden “is very clear — for the United States to even suggest imposing an arms ban on Israel is a huge thing,” Netanyahu is also facing a potential internal revolt by his right-wing cabinet members, such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Givr and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who oppose any ceasefire with Hamas.




Despite the Israeli claim that there are four brigades in Rafah, it is unclear exactly how many operational fighters Hamas still has. (AFP)

Ultra-religious, “they are on a different planet,” said Mekelberg. “It’s not between them and other human beings, it's between them and God. And they are telling Netanyahu if he compromises too much with Hamas they will leave the government, and that there is no point in them staying in government if we don't enter Rafah.”

Whether they would find Sinwar there is anybody’s guess, says Gershon Baskin, a former adviser to Israeli, Palestinian and international prime ministers on the Middle East peace process.

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“I'm sure that he's not just sitting and waiting,” he said. “He has certainly booby-trapped tunnels and bunkers in the whole area between Rafah and Khan Younis, and maybe they also have access to places north of there. We don’t know.”

But if Sinwar is in Rafah, “from my experience with the man there is no way he is going to surrender. He will fight to the death. I think that he believes that he will never survive this war. He’s not afraid of death. In fact, he believes that it’s his duty to become a martyr and he will try to kill as many Israelis along the way as possible.”




For the Netanyahu government, however, Rafah represents a stage for political theatre. (Reuters)

According to Baskin, an all-out ground attack on Rafah would be “catastrophic, for any hostages and the civilian population. There’s no doubt about it. I have heard there are about 40,000 people left in the quadrant that Israel said they wanted people to move out of, and you have another 1.2 million at least in the city of Rafah and its surroundings.”

Humanitarian considerations aside, Mekelberg believes that, even if Rafah is attacked and razed to the ground, Sinwar is killed and victory declared, assaulting the city would be a strategic mistake — and would not deliver the hoped-for existential blow to Hamas.

“The main threat to Israel from Hamas comes from its ideology and politics, not from its military,” he told Arab News.




The contrast between the satellite images taken on Monday and Tuesday is striking. (AFP/Maxar Technologies)

“The military you can deal with. But the Israelis need to convince people that this ideology doesn’t serve the Gazan people or Palestinian people generally, and that there is an alternative that offers hope, and it is doing very badly at that right now.

“Israel needs to make Hamas ideologically and politically irrelevant and it is doing exactly the opposite, making them more and more relevant.”

Baskin agrees.

“The only way to defeat the Hamas ideology is with a better ideology, and that is to make the two-state solution real to Palestinians, to show them that their fight, their struggle for independence and dignity, is on the road to victory,” he told Arab News.

That, he added, “is the only way to defeat Hamas” and, with the right leadership in Israel, and an alternative to Mahmoud Abbas for the Palestinians, doing so would be “easy.”

“All Israel has to do is declare that it recognizes the state of Palestine, and then every other country in the world would do that as well,” he said.




“The main threat to Israel from Hamas comes from its ideology and politics, not from its military,” Yossi Mekelberg told Arab News. (AFP)

“Then what I would do is organize a regional conference, including all of our neighbors, hoping that the Saudis would participate, and asking the Americans and Europeans to join in but not to run the show, and negotiate borders and Jerusalem and refugees and economic relations.”

The stumbling block to all this, he says, is Netanyahu, “who since 2009 has done everything he can to avoid the possibility of a two-state solution and for whom this war is definitely about his own personal political interest.”

 


African Union: Sudan war is world’s ‘worst humanitarian crisis’

Updated 6 sec ago
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African Union: Sudan war is world’s ‘worst humanitarian crisis’

  • The Sudanese army has been at war since April 2023 with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces
  • The Sudanese army controls the east and north of the country while RSF holds most of Darfur region
ADDIS ABABA: African Union officials on Tuesday branded Sudan’s civil war the “worst humanitarian crisis in the world” and warned it was leaving hundreds of thousands of children malnourished.
The Sudanese army has been at war since April 2023 with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in a conflict that has displaced around 12 million people, according to the AU and the International Rescue Committee.
It “has hampered access to humanitarian relief, led to shortage of food and aggravated hunger,” Mohamed Ibn Chambas, chairman of an AU panel on Sudan, said Tuesday on X.
“Children and women are continually abused, and the elderly and sick lack medical assistance,” he added.
“This is the worst humanitarian crisis in the world.”
A senior AU official for child welfare, Wilson Almeida Adao, said in a separate X post that hospital admissions for malnutrition rose by 44 percent in 2024, with over 431,000 children receiving treatment.
“We witness reports of grave violations, including attacks on schools and hospitals, forced recruitment of child soldiers, and the denial of humanitarian access,” he said.
The Sudanese army controls the east and north of the country while the RSF holds most of the stricken Darfur region, where the United Nations on Monday accused it of blocking aid.
For the AU, “only inter-Sudanese political dialogue, not the military option, can end this war,” said Chambas.

Syria’s Sharaa calls Trump Gaza plan ‘serious crime’ bound to fail

Updated 2 min 23 sec ago
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Syria’s Sharaa calls Trump Gaza plan ‘serious crime’ bound to fail

  • Trump had said the US would take over the war-ravaged Gaza Strip and develop it economically after Palestinians are resettled elsewhere
DUBAI: Syria Arab Republic’s new president, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, said in remarks broadcast on Monday he believes US President Donald Trump’s plan to resettle Palestinians from Gaza and take over the Strip “is a serious crime that will ultimately fail.”
Trump had said the US would take over the war-ravaged Gaza Strip and develop it economically after Palestinians are resettled elsewhere. He said Palestinians would not have the right of return to Gaza under his proposal.
In an interview with a UK podcast, Sharaa, an Islamist whose militant group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham was once an affiliate of Al-Qaeda, said Trump’s proposal would not succeed.
“I believe no power can drive people from their land. Many countries have tried to do it and they have all failed, especially during the recent war in Gaza over the past year and a half,” he said.
Sharaa, declared president for a transitional phase after his group’s fighters led the overthrow of Bashar Assad, said it would be neither “wise nor morally or politically right” for Trump to lead an effort to force Palestinians out of their land.
“Over 80 years of this conflict, all attempts to displace them have failed; those who left have regretted their decision. The Palestinian lesson that every generation has learned is the importance of holding on to their land,” he added.
Egypt, Jordan and other Arab nations have strongly opposed any attempt to push Palestinians over the border.
They fear any mass movement across the border would further undermine prospects for a “two-state solution” – creating a state of Palestine next to Israel – and leave Arab nations dealing with the consequences.

Syria Kurds say aim to empty northeast camps of Syrians, Iraqis this year

Updated 11 February 2025
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Syria Kurds say aim to empty northeast camps of Syrians, Iraqis this year

  • Kurdish-run camps and prisons hold about 56,000 people, many with alleged or perceived links to Daesh
  • Al-Hol is northeast Syria’s largest camp, with more than 40,000 detainees from 47 countries, living in dire conditions

QAMISHLI, Syria: Syria’s semi-autonomous Kurdish administration aims to empty camps in the country’s northeast of thousands of displaced Syrians and Iraqis, including suspected relatives of Daesh group fighters, by the end of the year, an official said.
“The autonomous administration is working to empty the camps” of Syrians and Iraqis “in 2025... in coordination with the United Nations,” Sheikhmous Ahmed, an official in the Kurdish administration, said late Monday.
Kurdish-run camps and prisons hold about 56,000 people, many with alleged or perceived links to Daesh, more than five years after the group’s territorial defeat in Syria.
The US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) spearheaded the military campaign that ousted the jihadists from their last scraps of Syrian territory.
Al-Hol is northeast Syria’s largest camp, with more than 40,000 detainees from 47 countries, living in dire conditions.
According to 2024 figures, there were more than 20,000 Iraqis and 16,000 Syrians in Al-Hol.
An Iraqi security source said that about 12,000 Iraqis had left Al-Hol camp since 2021, while around 17,000 remain.
Last month, the Kurdish administration said it would facilitate the voluntary return of residents of Al-Hol and other camps to their areas of origin.
Ahmed said some Iraqis had already departed Al-Hol, while “for Syrians, the decision is still being studied.”
The “return and exit mechanism” is being coordinated with the UN refugee agency and other organizations, he said, noting the “very large number” of people affected.
No solution has been found for other foreign nationals.
Ahmed said the presence of other foreigners in Al-Hol “is an international matter linked to the countries that have oversight in Al-Hol camp and also the fighters” imprisoned by the SDF.
Some countries have repatriated nationals from Al-Hol, but most “have not carried out any withdrawal,” he added.
The push comes amid talks between Syria’s new authorities and the SDF over the group’s future, and as clashes rage in the north between the force and pro-Ankara factions.
Ahmed said the initiative was launched “after the fall of the regime of Bashar Assad” in December, noting that Syria is now “heading toward reconstruction.”
The official denied recent US aid cuts were the reason for the push, adding that UN-affiliated and local organizations were still providing support and the administration was “continuing to provide services to the camps.”
Human Rights Watch has warned that recent US aid suspensions could worsen “life-threatening conditions” in camps in Syria’s northeast.


UN chief: Renewed hostilities in Gaza must be avoided at all costs

Updated 11 February 2025
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UN chief: Renewed hostilities in Gaza must be avoided at all costs

  • Hamas on Monday announced it would stop releasing Israeli hostages until further notice
  • It claimed Israeli violated ceasefire agreement in Gaza, raising the risk of reigniting the conflict

GENEVA: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged Hamas to continue with the planned release of hostages on Tuesday, a day after the Palestinian militant group announced its intention to halt the exchange.

“We must avoid at all costs the resumption of hostilities in Gaza that would lead to an immense tragedy,” he said in a statement.

Hamas on Monday announced it would stop releasing Israeli hostages until further notice over what it called Israeli violations of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, raising the risk of reigniting the conflict.

Hamas was to release more Israeli hostages on Saturday in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and other Palestinians held in Israeli detention as had happened over the past three weeks. An Israeli delegation returned from Doha for talks on the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Monday, amid growing doubts over the Egyptian and Qatari-brokered process to end the war in Gaza.

“Both sides must fully abide by their commitments in the ceasefire agreement and resume negotiations in Doha for the second phase,” Guterres added.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Hamas should release all hostages held by the militant group in Gaza by midday Saturday or he would propose canceling the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and “let hell break out.”

Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump must remember that the only way to bring home Israeli prisoners is to respect the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.


Governments need to regulate AI tech, says Klaus Schwab at World Governments Summit

Updated 11 February 2025
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Governments need to regulate AI tech, says Klaus Schwab at World Governments Summit

  • World Economic Forum founder urges education to counter ‘fear’
  • Govts have ‘big responsibility’ in shaping ethical regulations, rules

DUBAI: Governments need to provide an ethical regulatory framework for the artificial intelligence sector, and provide public education to counter fears of the emerging technology.

This is according to the World Economic Forum’s Executive Chairman Klaus Schwab who was speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai on Tuesday.

“We are living in a transition into a new time that will change everything. How we communicate, how we work and how we live,” he said.

“Governments have to be an agent of change in lighting speed … They need to provide the necessary infrastructure to sustain change at this rate.”

Schwab urged governments to work together to create what he said was the necessary ethical policies around new technologies so they can serve humankind.

“What we are seeing today as international efforts, is not enough. We need a coordinated global process to make sure that those technologies are constructive,” he added.

“Many people are afraid of the future because the progress is so fast. Not understanding new technologies can create fear. It is our job to educate and allow people to understand this technology, so it is not feared,” he explained.

He added that AI should not be treated and regulated like nuclear technology. “It is an enabling technology, governments have a big responsibility in shaping these regulations and rules.

“Government people today have to be governance architects to create a systems approach to define a system-oriented attitude,” he said.

Schwab added: “The future is shaped by us, so let’s look with optimism into the future. Let’s look at our future with constructive optimism.”