Afghanistan government, neighbours and the peace deal
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The peace deal signed between the US and Taliban is considered a great diplomatic achievement for Pakistan with the country acknowledged as a major mediator and facilitator in the process. But other regional players that share strategic interests in Afghanistan are not as happy with the outcome and are now more alert than ever.
As for Ghani, the government is already in a problematic space as the election results were contentious between him and Abdullah Abdullah. A day after the peace deal was signed on Feb. 29, Ghani looked out of place and is already balking at the release of 5,000 Taliban members that the deal promises.
‘The Taliban’s demand for the release of its prisoners cannot be a pre-condition to direct talks with the hardliner group,’ said Ghani last week in Kabul. Up to 5,000 Taliban members will be released in exchange for 1,000 Afghan government captives, the pact states. Once again, the Taliban have proven they do not shy away from gaining the most out of the bargain.
Even the foreign minister of Pakistan, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, hinted at ‘spoilers’ of the US-Taliban peace deal. Speaking to the press a day after the signing ceremony he said: ‘People want peace now. Now it is time to see what the Afghan leadership does. Do they prioritise Afghanistan’s interests or give their own personal benefit more importance?’
It should be noted that the US did not congratulate Ghani on securing the presidential seat. Only India and EU did. This not only puts Ghani and his government in an uncertain position but could also allow the Taliban, in future, to oust Ghani in the foreseeable future as the Taliban have long refused to accept the government as legitimate.
In India, an important ally of the Afghan government, the peace deal has stirred a lot of paranoia. India is one of the strongest proponents of the Afghan government, and for a long time has refused to accept the legitimization of Taliban. You cannot decide who geography puts you next to. On one hand, Pakistan’s conflict with India over Kashmir on the eastern border and on the other hand its engagement on the northwestern border with Afghanistan has put a lot of strain on its economy and strategic interests.
Now that Pakistan has done as much as it could to facilitate talks between US and Taliban, it can focus on its eastern border with India and pursue the case of Kashmir more diligently. India is paranoid that Pakistan facilitated the Afghan peace deal because Islamabad wants to frustrate Delhi’s efforts in Indian-administered Kashmir, India and Afghanistan.
Iran doesn’t seem too happy about the deal, although it should have been the first to celebrate the US withdrawal of influence from the war-torn country. First and foremost a theological confrontation which can be an inevitable consequence of Taliban coming into power in Kabul.
Naila Mahsud
From the outlook, India mainly propounds a development policy in Afghanistan maintaining infrastructure, education and diplomatic missions but it is not a bystander without any stakes. Afghanistan is also the center of focus for India with respect to India’s energy security. Delhi desires access to central Asia energy resources through Afghanistan and the fear of Taliban coming into power upsets India’s regional interests as it has invested billions of dollars in Afghanistan.
Iran doesn’t seem too happy about the deal, although it should have been the first to celebrate the US withdrawal of influence from the war-torn country. First and foremost a theological confrontation which can be an inevitable consequence of Taliban coming into power in Kabul.
Additionally, the hazaras are main allies of Iran and they feel that any agreement between the Pashtun dominated Taliban and Iran would be at their expense. The two groups already hold it against Tehran for adopting an approach of appeasement towards Taliban.
The most worrisome factor for India and Ghani is the part of the agreement that binds the US to not interfere in Afghanistan’s domestic affairs, contrary to what Indian and Afghan officials desired. They wanted the US to reposition itself as a facilitator in intra-Afghan dialogue.
Will the deal bring peace as anticipated and celebrated by many? Taliban doesn’t see eye to eye with the Afghan government and all the regional rivalry and interests at stake, and it is likely that Afghanistan is headed towards another testing phase since the Taliban were thrown out of power in 2001.
- Naila Mahsud is a Pakistani political and International relations researcher, with a focus on regional politics and security issues.
