What Sharif’s departure means for polarized Pakistani politics
For Nawaz Sharif, who is suffering from multiple ailments that pose a serious threat to his life, including kidney disease and a platelet-destroying immune disorder, leaving Pakistan was the last option.
Sources told me that Sharif said to his family members: “I have nothing to lose. I have lost my wife. I have lost my rule, honor, and dignity. I want to fight my political battle here.”
But amid emotional scenes, he is said to have been persuaded by his old mother, who told him: “Puttar (son), fight the battle for your life first. Then fight your political battle.”
And so, on Tuesday, Sharif left the country with a court-approved guarantee he would return once he received a clean bill of health.
Understandably, Sharif, who heads his family’s political dynasty, is angry — with his family politics in dire straits.
He is now at loggerheads with the country’s powerful military and political arch-rival Imran Khan and believes both have formed a nexus to deprive him of power.
Sharif has been disqualified from Prime Ministership by the judiciary on corruption charges, as well as barred from heading his own political party. Currently, he is out on bail while serving a seven-year prison sentence. He believes it’s a conspiracy against him.
His daughter Maryam, his political heiress, has also been convicted in a corruption case and is out on bail. His two sons living in London are declared absconders, and his closest confidantes are behind bars. His brother Shehbaz also faces corruption cases.
Sharifs’ party is caught between a narrative of resistance and reconciliation, so if it decides on non-confrontation against the military establishment, both sides will heave a sigh of relief.
Owais Tohid
The Sharifs are facing the wrath of the system which they once ruled, and the father-daughter duo is aggressively invoking a political discourse of resistance. His younger brother, Shehbaz, on the other hand, has been the bridge with the military whenever Sharif came into power and still believes reconciliation is the best bet for political survival.
“We shouldn’t go on the warpath. We are the second largest party and lead the opposition in parliament. Our parliamentary strength is our political bargain, why should we let it go?” Shehbaz told his party’s senior leaders recently in a fiery debate on the party’s future strategy.
But there are now divisions between the party’s leadership and its cadres.
With Sharif’s critical health, the party’s political line is likely to be put on the back burner. It is also possible Maryam will be politically inactive in the near future depending on her father’s health.
Sharifs’ party is caught between a narrative of resistance and reconciliation, so if it decides on non-confrontation against the military establishment, both sides will heave a sigh of relief.
The first signs of the party’s changed, more non-confrontational behavior recently emerged when it distanced itself from the protests of Fazlur Rehman, who leads the country’s largest religious political party.
With the tenure of military chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa extended for another three years, it's clear that the bonding between Imran Khan’s rule and the military establishment has been further cemented.
There is an understanding between the country’s civil and military leaderships, that economic stability and security are interlinked and though there have been huge successes in curbing terrorism, problems continue to persist.
Tensions with India over Kashmir continue, the fate of the US-Afghan Taliban peace process still hangs in the balance, the fear of being placed on terror financing watchdog FATF’s black-list still lingers, while Pakistan’s economic woes keep piling pressure on the government.
Once more this week, Imran Khan reshuffled his cabinet because of performance issues. His political rivals want to target the government’s failures to deliver on the economic front, hoping to change the perception of the common people and to create cracks between the establishment and the government.
Sharif’s party will wait for its leader’s return and Sharif will come back because he knows his party splintered when he went into exile during General Musharraf’s rule.
This is why he returned from London last year, leaving behind his ailing wife, faced court cases and went to prison.
If something happens to Sharif now, the situation will change and the lava of the opposition’s anger may erupt and create mayhem.
For its part, the military establishment cannot afford a political martyr from the country’s biggest province of Punjab. The Sharifs still enjoy massive political support in Punjab, which is also a major recruitment ground for the army. Both sides are rooted in the same base and a war-path will cut through home terrain.
Vividly, I remember interviewing Sharif in prison when he had been ousted during General Musharraf’s rule. He said to me: “My days are short, the nights are long.”
I hope the dark nights are not too long for our democratic system.
*Owais Tohid is a leading Pakistani journalist/writer. He tweet @OwaisTohid
