Sharif flies out but the crisis is far from over
Nawaz Sharif, the ailing former prime minister, has finally been allowed to fly to London for medical treatment amid doubts over his returning home to resume his prison sentence soon. Sharif’s deteriorating health condition and legal battle for removing the travel ban had intensified political polarization.
Sharif’s leaving the country has come as a sigh of relief for his family and party supporters worried about his illness. But the controversy surrounding the entire episode is not likely to die. It may not be curtains yet. His departure could radically change the political dynamics in the country.
Sharif has flown to London on Tuesday after a Lahore High Court bench struck down the government’s condition of submitting an indemnity bond of Rs. 7 billion. The court granted the permission after getting separate affidavits from Nawaz Sharif and his brother, Shahbaz Sharif, on the surety that they will return to the country after treatment. Shahbaz, who is also facing a corruption investigation, is accompanying his brother.
The permission is for four weeks and can be extended only if the former prime minister can prove through his medical reports that his treatment requires him to stay abroad longer. The court approved undertaking says that if at any time the government has credible information that Sharif is “living abroad despite his fitness to travel,” a government representative will have the right to verify the state of his health.
Given the seriousness of his illness, there is little likelihood of Sharif returning to the country and perhaps the government also knows it.
Zahid Hussain
Not surprisingly, both the government and opposition hailed the court decision claiming vindication of their respective positions. The court decision, however, is not likely to lower the political temperature.
Various medical reports show that 70-year-old Sharif has suffered from multiple ailments that cannot be treated in Pakistan. He has been serving a prison sentence and facing trial on a number of corruption cases, and his supporters and family members accused the government of denying Sharif proper medical care in prison, leading to a worsening of his condition. Islamabad High Court last month ordered his release on bail for eight weeks on humanitarian grounds. His daughter and political heir apparent, Maryam Nawaz, is also out on bail.
The development came as Fazlur Rehman called off his party’s two-week-long sit-in in Islamabad where his Jamiat Ulema Islam- Fazal (JUI-F) party, the country’s most powerful Islamic political party, had been demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Imran Khan.
The two largest opposition political parties – the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People's Party (PPP) had supported the march but didn’t participate in it. Rehman may have failed to bring down the government, but his march has succeeded in shaking the fragile ruling coalition.
Sensing the gravity of the situation, some of the coalition partners had started reviewing their options, further adding to Imran Khan’s woes, and some of the allies have publicly expressed their reservations over government policies. With the worsening crisis of governance, things could change dramatically. Too many fronts are hard to defend. Meanwhile, some recent developments on the political front are ominous.
Sharif’s release on bail and permission to fly out has raised suspicions of some back-room deal to ease the rising political pressure on the government. Both the government and Sharif’s party deny the assumption, but many believe there is a ring of truth to the speculation.
Given the seriousness of his illness, there is little likelihood of Sharif returning to the country and perhaps the government also knows it. It also raises questions about Sharif’s political future. Even from behind bars, the former prime minister had continued to cast shadows over Pakistani politics. But his credibility may diminish if he decides to stay abroad. Most PML-N leaders seem to have reconciled with that probability.
Sharif and his family were exiled to Saudi Arabia after his second government was ousted in a military coup in 2000. He returned to the country a few years later and swept back to power. But it would be difficult for him to maintain his political support base staying back in London and violating a court order, even on health grounds.
This was the third time his government was ousted halfway through his term in 2017. Sharif has been barred from holding any public office and convicted of various corruption charges, and many analysts believe that it may be the end of Sharif’s long political career. His entire family is in the dock over corruption allegations.
His departure also raises questions about the future of the House of Sharif that has dominated the country’s political scene for the past three decades, whether in or out of power.
– Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholar, USA, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with militant Islam (Columbia university press) and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan (Simon and Schuster, NY). Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ.
Twitter: @hidhussain
