ENERGY RECAP: All about Permian, not politics

A Port Authority officer points at the Bavand, one of two stranded Iranian vessels, anchored at the port in Paranagua, Brazil, Thursday, July 25, 2019. (AP)
Updated 28 July 2019
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ENERGY RECAP: All about Permian, not politics

  • The EIA sees US oil production continuing to set records through 2027

Oil prices remain relatively stable and ended on Friday with slight losses, taking them close to where they started the week. Brent crude fell to $63.46 and WTI fell to $56.20 per barrel.
Continuing threats to supply from the Arabian Gulf and huge drawdowns in US crude oil inventories could not dampen doubts over future demand and fears about sluggish growth.
US oil inventories fell by a massive 10.8 million barrels to the lowest level in four months, according to the EIA. This decline was mostly attributed to the impact of Hurricane Barry on the Gulf of Mexico offshore oil fields.
The EIA reported that US oil production fell to its lowest level since October 2018. US oil output fell sharply by the most in almost two years to 11.3 million bpd.
But the market shrugged off that news and prices did not react. Traders continued to focus on the global oversupply situation rather than the latest OPEC+ cuts aimed at providing support to the oil price.
How can the surge in US oil production cause downward prices in oil while a sudden sharp decline in production keeps prices stable?
The growth in US oil production was always thought to outpace the growth in global oil demand since 2018. This was one of the main reasons for keeping  OPEC+ supply cuts for the third year in a row.
The EIA sees US oil production continuing to set records through 2027. But demand growth will swiftly absorb any additional barrels from shale producers in the medium term, and indeed that requires much more than 2.5 million bpd of incremental pipeline capacity that is expected to come into service from the Permian Basin between now and the end of 2020.
Until now, the limited US pipeline capacity to move crude oil out of the shale plays in the Permian has been the biggest challenge facing shale producers.
Though some shale producers raised capital expenditure during high oil prices in October 2018, oil prices subsequently fell and the pace of that spending slowed. That has raised questions over expanding export capacity in the near term.

Faisal Faeq is an energy and oil marketing adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Twitter:@faisalfaeq


UAE non-oil business growth at 1-year high in February: PMI report

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UAE non-oil business growth at 1-year high in February: PMI report

RIYADH: The growth of the non-oil private sector in the UAE ticked up to a 12-month high in February, driven by rapid increases in business activity and new work orders, an economic tracker showed.

In its latest Purchasing Managers’ Index report, S&P Global revealed that the UAE’s PMI rose to 55 in February from 54.9 in January.

Any PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 reflects contraction.

The upturn of the non-oil private sector in the UAE aligns with the broader trend observed in the Gulf Cooperation Council region, where countries, including Saudi Arabia, are pursuing economic diversification efforts to reduce reliance on crude revenues.

In January, the Kingdom’s PMI stood at 56.3, the highest in the region, while Kuwait recorded a reading of 54.5.

“The UAE PMI signalled the strongest growth in non-oil business conditions for a year in February, with output increasing rapidly in response to strong inflows of new work. So far, the data points to an encouraging picture for the domestic economy in the first quarter of this year,” said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

According to the report, stronger output among non-oil sectors was driven by higher demand, successful contract wins, and growth in key sectors including construction, real estate, logistics, and technology.

Additional factors that contributed to this growth include rising tourist arrivals, the expansion of e-commerce channels, and growing demand for AI-related products.

While international orders also contributed to the expansion of the non-oil sector, the increase in export sales remained modest, suggesting that sales growth was mainly driven by domestic demand.

The analysis highlighted that employment numbers rose modestly in February, marking the largest uplift since last November.

UAE non-oil businesses successfully increased their inventories of purchased inputs for the second month running, supported by another rapid improvement in supplier delivery times.

Regarding the future outlook, non-oil firms in the UAE expressed optimism, although the level of confidence declined from the recent high in January.

“The outlook is positive, as demand has continued to pressure business capacity, suggesting additional expansions in output and employment may be necessary,” added Owen.

In the same report, S&P Global revealed that Dubai’s PMI slipped to 54.6 in February from 55.9 observed in January.

Rates of output and new order growth lost momentum, but remained sharp overall, with firms highlighting increased opportunities and new projects.

The release highlighted that demand was also lifted by various factors, including marketing activities, AI adoption, population growth and increased tourism.