SINGAPORE: Oil prices dipped on Monday amid concerns that an economic downturn may dent fuel consumption, but crude markets remain broadly supported by supply cuts led by producer group OPEC and US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.
Brent crude oil futures were at $67.03 per barrel at 0231 GMT, down 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close, but not far off the $68.14 per barrel 2019-high reached last week.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $58.32 per barrel, down 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last settlement, and also not far off their 2019-high of $58.95 from the previous week.
“The greatest downside risk to our oil price view is demand weakness on slower economic growth. Our base case is that global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019 ... A synchronized global slowdown in growth could push global demand growth to below 1 million bpd,” Bernstein Energy said on Monday.
US manufacturing output fell for a second straight month in February, in a sign that the world’s biggest economy has been slowing down in the first quarter.
In Asia, Japan’s exports fell for a third straight month in February in a sign of growing strain from slowing global demand.
Despite this, oil prices have gained around a quarter since the start of the year amid US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, and as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russia — known as OPEC+ — have pledged to withhold 1.2 million bpd in supply to prop up prices.
Saudi Arabia said on Sunday that balancing oil markets was far from done as inventories were still high.
Russia also said production cuts would stay in place at least until June.
As a result, Bernstein forecast an inventory draw of 37 million barrels in the first quarter for the 36 member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which comprises most industrialized nations.
The International Energy Agency said on Friday it expected oil markets to be in a modest deficit from the second quarter of 2019.
Key for the supply and demand balance will be the US, where crude production has soared by around 2 million bpd over the past year, thanks largely to an onshore boom in shale formation drilling.
The number of rigs drilling for new oil production in the United States has been falling in 2019, and hit its lowest level since April 2018 last week, at 833 operating rigs.
However, US crude oil production still increased at the start of 2019, hitting a record 12.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed.
Output has since dipped back to 12 million bpd, but that still makes America the world’s biggest crude oil producer.
Oil slips on economic slowdown, but OPEC-led cuts still support
Oil slips on economic slowdown, but OPEC-led cuts still support
- US manufacturing output fell for a second straight month in February
- It was a sign that the world’s biggest economy has been slowing down in the first quarter
Egypt’s non-oil exports rise 17% as trade deficit narrows
RIYADH: Egyptian non-oil exports increased by over 17 percent year on year in 2025, reaching approximately $48.6 billion, new figures showed.
Latest foreign trade indicators released by the country’s Ministry of Investment and Foreign Trade revealed the trade deficit narrowed by 9 percent over the 12 months, reaching around $34.4 billion, according to a statement.
This supports Egypt’s ambition to enter the global top 50 in trade performance, boost exports to $145 billion a year, and narrow the trade deficit.
It also aligns with the country’s efforts to streamline procedures, maximize the benefits of trade agreements, and protect local industry in line with international agreements.
The newly released data said: “Egyptian gold exports also saw a substantial increase, reaching $7.6 billion in 2025 compared to $3.2 billion in 2024, an increase of $4.4 billion.”
It further indicated that the largest markets for Egyptian non-oil exports in 2025 included the UAE, Turkiye, and Saudi Arabia, as well as Italy and the US.
The most important export sectors included building materials at $14.9 billion, chemicals and fertilizers at $9.4 billion, and food industries at $6.8 billion.
In October, Egypt’s credit rating was raised by S&P Global to “B” from “B-,” while Fitch reaffirmed its “B” rating, citing reform progress and macroeconomic stability.
S&P said at the time that the upgrade reflects reforms implemented over the past period by the country, including the liberalization of the foreign exchange regime, which boosted competitiveness and fueled a rebound in growth.
Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly also said at that time that both rating agencies’ decisions signal confidence in the government’s reform agenda and its expected returns.
In September, Egypt’s Ministry of Planning, Economic Development and International Cooperation reported that the economy expanded 4.4 percent in fiscal year 2024/25, driven by a strong fourth quarter when gross domestic product growth hit a three-year high of 5 percent.
This reflects the impact of the more flexible exchange rate regime adopted since March 2024, which has helped stabilize the balance of payments and restore investor confidence.
