DUBAI: The summit of the G20 nations assembling in Buenos Aires comes at a crucial time in world affairs, as well as a critical juncture in the economy of its host nation, Argentina.
For Saudi Arabia too, the meeting comes at an important crossroads – an opportunity to move its economic transformation strategy onto another level in the face of challenges at home and abroad.
While public perception of the G20 is based on the power-play politics on display over the traditional 48 hours of summitry, behind the scenes the gathering is a forum for the resolution of economic and financial issues.
The two days of in-your-face events are preceded by more discreet meetings of business leaders and financial officials — the legendary “sherpas” — from the member countries and their invitees; their discussions are decidedly economic, rather than political; their implicit agenda is to maintain economic stability within the existing financial framework.
Maybe this is why, over the course of the 10-year history of the G20, it has attracted more criticism and opposition from the left wing, and physical opposition from violent extremists, than any other multinational gathering.
The G20 is unashamedly a club of capitalists, even when its most populous member and second biggest economy, China, is still nominally a communist economy. In its decade in the capitalist inner sanctum, China has proven just as orthodox a capitalist as any of the other members, including the standard bearer of free enterprise, the US.
In 2009 at the G20 in Pittsburgh, China joined with the US to bail out the world with an expansionist program after the global financial crisis had led it to the brink, declaring itself a committed member of the club.
How different the atmosphere is in Buenos Aires. The global economic system seems to be on the point of fracture again, but this time there seems little chance of a US-China double act coming to the rescue.
The Costa Salguero Center on the edge of the Rio de la Plata will be the venue for the first meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping since, earlier this year, the former fired the opening shots in the “trade war” going on between them by declaring his intention to impose $250 billion of tariffs on Chinese imports.
China retaliated with its own tariffs, and there is a danger that the confrontation — which some American officials describe as merely a “skirmish” — will descend into a full-scale battle next year, when the tariffs take effect.
That would have serious consequences for a global economy that is looking increasingly fragile amid concerns that the financial system, too, is laboring under a weight of increased debt and overinflated asset prices.
China recently held out an olive branch, with deputy president Wang Qishan declaring his readiness to enter serious negotiations to avoid a breakdown in the global trade system. The hope is that Trump will hold off formally applying the tariffs in January.
But in Buenos Aires, nobody is expecting too much from the dinner that the two presidents have arranged on Friday night.
By then, the first full day of the summit will have been completed, and President Mauricio Macri of Argentina will be hoping that it has gone off without the major incidents that have been threatened by home-grown and international agitators.
If there was a repeat of the serious football-related violence that broke out in Buenos Aires recently, it would take the shine off his attempts to claim that Argentina had turned a corner in its economic troubles, in the run-up to presidential elections next year.
Macri was elected three years ago in a burst of optimism that his reformist policies would put the Argentine economy on the road to stability after years of boom-and-bust cycles, interspersed corruption scandals, and domestic unrest.
For a while it seemed to be working, and winning the G20 was seen as a mark of approval by the international community for his presidency.
But recently the old Argentine malaise has come back with a vengeance. The peso has lost 50 percent of its value against the dollar this year, Argentine financial markets have been chaotic, and inflation has soared to more than 30 percent per annum. Some Argentinians complain they cannot afford steak.
Macri has stabilized the situation in recent weeks, with the IMF giving its blessing in a series of measures to stabilize the economy and the financial system.
But Argentine citizens are still having to live with an austerity program that threatens their standard of living, and it would not take much for ordinary citizens — the ones who have not taken Macri’s advice to have a long weekend away from Buenos Aires — to join protests that could easily descend into violent confrontation as the G20 leaders meet.
That would be an embarrassment for Macri in front of his fellow leaders, and would also distract from the rest of the very worthy G20 program.
While the media is salivating for a Trump-Xi confrontation on trade, more fireworks on climate change and street protest, the compilers of the G20 program have actually put together a formal agenda that reflects some of the other genuine concerns of the international community.
The theme of the Buenos Aires G20 — as it is the case increasingly with international forums from Davos to Singapore — is sustainability. The world has to live within it means, both in terms of energy, environment, society and finance.
The Argentine G20’s self-declared goals are to focus solutions on the future of work, infrastructure for development, viable food production and consumption, and the inclusion of more women in the global workforce, all against the backdrop of the rapid technological change turning most aspects of the economic process on its head.
That coincides with many of the goals of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which Saudi policymakers — led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — will be at pains to stress is still on track in Buenos Aires. The event gives the opportunity to reassert the project’s credentials on the international stage after a period of uncertainty in crucial global energy markets and changes in the international perception of the Kingdom.
Some aspects of the Vision 2030 program — like the initial public offering of Saudi Aramco originally slated for next year — have been modified in line with changing circumstances, and lower oil prices threaten to alter the fiscal mathematics for the Kingdom’s economic policymakers.
As the biggest economy in the Middle East, a leading oil producer and a long-standing member of the G20, Saudi Arabia will retain its role and its influence in Buenos Aires. The top-level delegation will be working hard behind the scenes, at the bilateral and “retreat” events at the summit center, to argue its case among its global peers.
It all promises to be an instructive lesson in the stagecraft, and statecraft, that goes into hosting a G20 summit, which, after a move to Japan next year, is planned to be held in Saudi Arabia in 2020, its first time in the Middle East.
Why the G20 matters now for both Saudi Arabia and the international community
Why the G20 matters now for both Saudi Arabia and the international community
- The world is hoping the US and China will resolve their trade war
- Saudi Arabia will showcase Vision 2030 on the global stage
Macron blasts ‘ineffective’ UK Rwanda deportation law
PARIS: French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday said Britain’s plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda was “ineffective” and showed “cynicism” while praising the two countries’ cooperation on defense.
“I don’t believe in the model ... which would involve finding third countries on the African continent or elsewhere where we’d send people who arrive on our soil illegally, who don’t come from these countries,” Macron said.
“We’re creating a geopolitics of cynicism which betrays our values and will build new dependencies, and which will prove completely ineffective,” he added in a wide-ranging speech on the future of the European Union at Paris’ Sorbonne University.
British MPs on Tuesday passed a law providing for undocumented asylum seekers to be sent to Rwanda, where their asylum claims would be processed and where they would stay if the claims succeed.
The law is a flagship policy for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government, which badly lags the opposition Labour Party in the polls, with an election expected within months.
Britain pays Paris to support policing of France’s northern coast, which aims to prevent migrants from setting off for perilous crossings in small boats.
Five people, including one child, were killed in an attempted crossing Tuesday, bringing the toll on the route so far this year to 15 — already higher than the 12 deaths in 2023.
But Macron had warm words for London when he praised the two NATO allies’ bilateral military cooperation, which endured through the contentious years of Britain’s departure from the EU.
“The British are deep natural allies (for France), and the treaties that bind us together ... lay a solid foundation,” he said.
“We have to follow them up and strengthen them because Brexit has not affected this relationship,” Macron added.
The president also said France should seek similar “partnerships” with fellow EU members.
US alarmed by signs of ‘imminent military offensive’ in Darfur
WASHINGTON: The US has warned of a looming rebel military offensive on the Sudanese city of El-Fasher. This humanitarian hub appears to be at the center of a newly opening front in the country’s civil war.
After a year of fighting between the armed forces of Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces, under Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, millions have been displaced in the northeastern African country.
Until recently, El-Fasher — the last Darfur state capital not under RSF control — had been relatively unaffected by the fighting, hosting a large number of refugees.
But since mid-April, bombardments and clashes have been reported in the city and surrounding villages. The US “calls on all armed forces in Sudan to immediately cease attacks in El-Fasher,” the State Department said.
“We are alarmed by indications of an imminent offensive by the Rapid Support Forces and its affiliated militias,” it said, adding that “an offensive against El-Fasher city would subject civilians to extreme danger.”
After several days of “arbitrary shelling and airstrikes” in the city and its outskirts, a pro-democracy lawyers’ committee reported last week that at least 25 civilians had been killed.
Clashes in the eastern and northern parts of the city have already resulted in 36,000 displaced people, according to the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
As the war enters its second year, the UN and US have warned the breakdown of the fragile peace in El-Fasher would be catastrophic.
The city functions as the main humanitarian hub in the vast western region of Darfur, home to around a quarter of Sudan’s 48 million people and the site of harrowing violence during this and previous conflicts.
The State Department said it had seen “credible reports” that the RSF and affiliated militias had razed multiple villages west of the city, while it condemned “reported indiscriminate aerial bombardments” in the region by Sudan’s armed forces.
Death toll in migrant boat capsize off Djibouti rises to 24: UN agency
- 20 remain missing after the boat carrying at least 77 migrants, including children, capsized near the town of Obock
NAIROBI: The death toll from a migrant boat disaster off Djibouti this week has risen to 24, the UN’s migration agency said, highlighting a sharp increase in the number of people returning from Yemen to the Horn of Africa nation this year.
The capsize on Monday was the second fatal maritime accident in two weeks off Djibouti, which lies on the perilous so-called Eastern Migration Route from Africa to the Arabian Peninsula.
At least 24 people died, and 20 remain missing after the boat carrying at least 77 migrants, including children, capsized near the town of Obock, the International Organization for Migration said.
It said 33 survivors were being cared for at an IOM center in Obock and that local authorities are conducting search and rescue operations in the hope of finding more people alive.
Addis Ababa’s ambassador to Djibouti had said those on the boat were Ethiopian migrants.
Another vessel also carrying mainly Ethiopian migrants sank in the same area on April 8, with a death toll of at least 38.
“The occurrence of two such tragedies within two weeks highlights the dangers faced by children, women, and men migrating through irregular routes, underscoring the importance of establishing safe and legal pathways for migration,” IOM chief of mission in Djibouti, Tanja Pacifico, said.
The IOM said it had recorded a total of 1,350 deaths on the Eastern Route since 2014, not including this year.
In 2023 alone, it said it documented at least 698 deaths along the route, including 105 lost at sea.
The agency believed the people on both ill-fated vessels were attempting to return from Yemen to Djibouti.
Each year, tens of thousands of African migrants brave the Eastern Route across the Red Sea to reach Gulf nations, escape conflict or natural disaster, or seek better economic opportunities.
However, many are unsuccessful and “thousands are stranded in Yemen where they experience extremely harsh conditions,” the IOM said.
Since the start of 2024, the agency said 3,682 migrants have left Yemen for Djibouti, more than double the figure for the same period last year.
155 killed in Tanzania as heavy rains lash East Africa
- Kenyan president convenes emergency multi-agency meeting to respond to crisis after floods cause chaos
DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania: At least 155 people have died in Tanzania as torrential rains linked to El Nino triggered flooding and landslides, Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa said on Thursday.
Tanzania and other countries in East Africa — a region highly vulnerable to climate change — have been pounded by heavier than usual rainfall during the current rainy season, with dozens of deaths also reported in Kenya.
Majaliwa said the rains have affected more than 51,000 households and 200,000 people, with 155 fatalities and 236 injuries.
“The heavy El Nino rains, accompanied by strong winds, floods, and landslides in various parts of the country, have caused significant damage,” Majaliwa told parliament in Tanzania’s capital, Dodoma.
He added: “These include loss of life, destruction of crops, homes, citizens’ property, and infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and railways.”
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern typically associated with increased heat worldwide, drought in some parts of the world, and heavy rains elsewhere.
It can have a devastating impact on East Africa.
In Burundi, around 96,000 people have been displaced by months of relentless rains.
In addition, about 45 people have been killed in Kenya since the start of the rainy season in March, including 13 who lost their lives in flash floods in the capital, Nairobi, this week.
Kenyan President William Ruto convened an emergency multi-agency meeting on Thursday to respond to the crisis after torrential rains triggered floods that caused chaos across the city, blocking roads and bridges and engulfing homes in slum districts.
Kenyans have been warned to stay on alert, with more heavy rains forecast across the country. Officials said people living in the most vulnerable areas would be relocated.
“The government ... will do whatever it takes, apply all the required resources in terms of money and personnel to make sure that lives are not lost and the people of Kenya are protected from this disaster,” Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua told a press briefing.
Meanwhile, the UN humanitarian response agency OCHA said in an update this week that in Somalia, the Gu (April to June) rains are intensifying, with flash floods reported since April 19.
It said four people had been reportedly killed, and at least 134 families or more than 800 people were affected or displaced across the country.
Late last year, more than 300 people died in torrential rains and floods in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia just as the region was trying to recover from its worst drought in four decades that left millions of people hungry.
From October 1997 to January 1998, massive floods caused more than 6,000 deaths in five countries in the region.
In March, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization said that El Nino, which peaked in December, was one of the five strongest ever recorded.
Though the weather pattern is gradually weakening, its impact will continue over the coming months by fueling the heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases, it said.
Therefore, the WMO said in a quarterly update that “above normal temperatures are predicted over almost all land areas between March and May.”
‘Uncommitted’ organizers will join campus protesters in Michigan over Gaza
- Student protests in the US over the war in Gaza have intensified and expanded over the past week
- Democrats have become increasingly uneasy over the US support for Israel as the death toll and destruction climb in Gaza
WASHINGTON: Organizers behind the “uncommitted” political movement against President Joe Biden’s staunch support for Israel’s war against Hamas will travel to the University of Michigan’s campus on Thursday to join students protesting the war.
Student protests in the US over the war in Gaza have intensified and expanded over the past week after police first arrested students at Columbia, with so-called Gaza solidarity encampments established at colleges, including Yale, and New York University. Police have been called in to several campuses to arrest hundreds of student demonstrators.
Uncommitted organizers will travel to the University of Michigan’s Ann Arbor campus, they told Reuters, bringing together a political movement that’s disrupted Biden events and amassed hundreds of thousands of votes in Democratic primaries and a student movement that’s drawn students and faculty of various backgrounds.
Biden won Michigan by less than a 3 percent margin in 2020.
Democrats have become increasingly uneasy over the US support for Israel as the death toll and destruction climb in Gaza. A growing revolt inside the Democratic base signifies the challenge Biden faces in bringing together the coalition he needs to defeat Republican frontrunner and former President Donald Trump.
“President Biden is choosing to put his hands over his ears and ignore the hundreds of thousands of people who have already come out against the war at the ballot box,” said Abbas Alawieh, a prominent “Uncommitted” organizer, who is going to Ann Arbor with Layla Elabed, another Michigan organizer.
“Signing into law more money for Israel is sending a clear message to uncommitted voters, young voters that he doesn’t care to engage seriously with our demands to end this war,” he said, referring to the $26 billion in new aid Biden recently approved.
Alawieh said the uncommitted movement has not been coordinating with student groups so far. “We have an electoral focus, but we certainly see the demands of student protesters, who are calling for peace,” he said.
On campuses where protests have broken out, students have issued calls for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, an end to US military assistance for Israel, university divestment from arms suppliers and other companies profiting from the war, and amnesty for students and faculty members who have been disciplined or fired for protesting.
Biden told reporters on Monday that he condemned both “antisemitic protests” and “those who don’t understand what’s going on with the Palestinians.” Biden campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt has said the president “shares the goal for an end to the violence and a just, lasting peace in the Middle East. He’s working tirelessly to that end.”
Trump called the campus protest situation “a mess” as he walked into his criminal trial in New York.
The uncommitted movement amassed sizable vote totals in Michigan, Minnesota and Hawaii primaries and had won 25 delegates as of the beginning of April. They are preparing to target the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August, where Biden is expected to be nominated.
Polls show Biden and Trump running neck-and-neck ahead of their Nov. 5 election rematch nationally. Biden’s 2020 victory was due to narrow wins in key swing states like Michigan.
