Ignoring the risks posed by climate change would be a fatal mistake for millions
“The more we heat up the planet, the more it costs all of us, not just in money, but in colossal famines, displacements, deaths and species extinction, as well as in the loss of some of the things that make this planet a blue-green jewel, including its special habitat, from the melting Arctic to bleaching coral reefs.” Rebecca Solnit, activist and contributing editor to Harper’s Magazine.
Countries in the South Asian region are reeling under the effects of climate change. Unprecedented heat waves recorded during late March and early April in Ahmadabad, India and Karachi, Pakistan cannot be overlooked. According to a recent article published by scientific journal Science Advances, the number of deaths due to extreme heat events has skyrocketed in the subcontinent region. The scenario is expected to get worse as rising global temperatures result in more frequent heat waves worldwide. The article added that countries in the South Asian region, where a large number of people live in poverty, will prove to be a grim symbol of cost of climate change.
Scientists around the globe unanimously agree that the extreme heat events will be the lasting legacy of climate change. The increase in heat waves in recent decades was caused by a mere 0.5 degrees Celsius rise in mean temperatures. The high heat intensifies factors that affect human health such as air-quality issues, reduced crop yields and droughts. Hence, it is not erroneous to assume, based on future-projection models, that a temperature increase of 2.2 to 5.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century could render countries in Asia and the Middle East, as well as other parts of the world, uninhabitable during the prolonged summer months.
The effects on health of heat levels are more intense in urban areas, where residents are exposed to higher temperatures that are nocturnally sustained compared with their surrounding rural areas, due to a phenomenon called the Urban Heat Island. Cities trap more heat than rural locations due to the injudicious use of heat-absorbing concrete and steel to replace vegetation, rendering them more sensitive to climate change. This translates to a greater increase in average temperatures in cities, and a reduction of diurnal variation, meaning the loss of cooler nights.
The health effects of heat waves are further exacerbated by an increase in humidity levels. The elderly, young children and those with pre-existing health problems or living in poverty are the most vulnerable in such a situation.
The increased frequency of extreme heat events and the potential implications for public health mean there is a dire need for a countrywide plan of action.
Dr. Mehreen Mujtaba
Heat waves are silent killers. Mortality rises sharply a day or two after extreme temperatures begin, meaning there is a small window of opportunity for effective action.
Already, the relative increase in summer temperatures has had disastrous health consequences in Pakistan. The increasing health risks due to heat waves require urgent attention and advance preparation, underlining the need for holistic heat-wave management planning. Examples from developed countries show that much of the reduced mortality across Europe, Canada and the US can be attributed to early-warning systems.
The increased frequency of extreme heat events and the potential implications for public health mean there is a dire need for a countrywide plan of action. The development of a national heat-wave management plan is the first step towards creating a conducive environment for the planning, implementation and monitoring of heat-wave management initiatives, guided by the relevant ministries, departments, nongovernmental organizations, civil society and other stakeholders.
Short-term interventions are required at the planning stage to improve our preparedness for extreme-heat events. Long-term goals should include climate- and heat-risk reduction through policy development, regulation and urban planning. It is also imperative to develop strategies for public awareness, systems for heat alerts, emergency-response readiness and community engagement. For an effective national heat action plan, the priority areas of consideration would include institutional and capacity building, resource mobilization and the development of effective communication strategies.
On a positive note, in 2017, the National Disaster Management Authority, in collaboration with the Climate Development and Knowledge Network and Leadership for Environment and Development Pakistan, developed its first regional toolkit for heat-wave management. The toolkit and heat-wave management plan is under implementation in Karachi city and will be replicated in other cities across the country.
• Dr. Mehreen Mujtaba is a freelance consultant working in the areas of environment and health.
