Senate election deals a blow to Sharif’s comeback hopes

An embattled Nawaz Sharif suffered a serious setback last week in his struggle for political revival when his party lost the critical election for the Senate chairman. The large margin of defeat is a clear indicator of how the dice has been loaded against the ruling party. The reversal was more shocking as the PML(N) had emerged this month as the largest party in the midterm election for the upper house of parliament. It looked an easy sail for the party with the support of its allies. 
It was apparent that the outcome of election was craftily sewn up with bitter political rivals PPP and PTI coalescing into an unholy alliance, ensuring victory for a little known Baluch politician. The newly elected Senate chairman, Sadiq Sanjrani, belongs to a small independent group in western Baluchistan province. His rise to one of the nation’s highest elected public offices has raised many questions. 
There have been widespread allegations of corruption and money changing hands in the election for 52 Senate members — half the total number. The Senate elections manifest all that is wrong with the country’s flawed democratic process. Candidates are mostly handpicked by all-powerful party heads. Cronies are accommodated in the house. Loyalties are shifted overnight and one is not surprised to see the turncoats returning to the house under a different party banner each time. 
Money can buy a party ticket or even a seat in the august house as an independent. The latest election has not been any different from what we have witnessed in the past, raising questions about the sanctity of the elected forum representing the federation. Allegations of horse-trading and the purchase of votes have tarnished the image of parliament. While crying foul, political leaders are still not willing to reform the system and make their party more democratic in order to stop the corrupt practices. 

A major challenge for the PML(N) is how to maintain unity in its ranks after its failure to secure the chairmanship of the upper house. 

Zahid Hussain

A victory in the election for the chairman of the Senate would have given a massive moral and political boost to the disgraced leader, yet the setback has not blunted his defiance. The surprise outcome of the election has intensified the clash between the PML-N and the security establishment that has been blamed for producing a “favorable result.” Unsurprisingly there has been a marked stridency in the tenor of the members of the ruling coalition with their no-holds-barred attacks on the military and the intelligence agencies. 
Surely political expediency brought the squabbling opposition political groups together, but the role of the security establishment in blocking the ruling party is too obvious. The chain of events over the past few weeks gives credence to the allegation of manipulation by the deep state. 
From the political re-engineering in Baluchistan to the emergence of an independent group of newly elected senators from the province, the chain of events over the past few months does not appear to have been coincidental. The hurriedly cobbled alliance helped thwart the attempt by the PML(N) to establish control over both houses of parliament. The ruling coalition already has a comfortable majority in the National Assembly, though only few months are left for the completion of its five-year term. 
Winning the chairmanship of the Senate was particularly important for the PML(N) to change the laws in order to remove the disqualification of the former prime minister. The Senate election had also assumed greater significance because of rising political polarization and the approach of general elections in July. 
A major challenge for the PML(N) is how to maintain unity in its ranks in the aftermath of the latest setback.  Although the ruling coalition appears united, defections can not be ruled out before the general elections. A major test for the party would come if Nawaz Sharif were convicted on graft charges. The former prime minister and his family are facing trial on several counts ranging from money laundering to living beyond their means. 
A recent ruling by the Supreme Court removing him from the party leadership dealt a serious blow to Sharif’s struggle to stay on the political center stage despite his disqualification from holding public office. 
Notwithstanding the allegations of foul play and horse trading, the Senate election has removed the uncertainty surrounding the general elections and the second transition from one elected government to another. It bodes well for the democratic process in the country. But what happens over the next few weeks could change the political dynamics yet again. 
— Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC.
Twitter: @hidhussain