MIRPURKHAS: Pakistani wheat farmers are cutting back on a key fertilizer after its price surged 23 percent following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, threatening harvests in a country already struggling to produce enough wheat to meet domestic demand.

The price of diammonium phosphate (DAP), a fertilizer that helps wheat plants develop strong roots and grow, has risen sharply as the conflict disrupts shipments from the Gulf and drives up production costs.

A 50-kilogram bag now costs Rs17,183 ($62), up Rs3,174 ($12) from Rs14,009 ($51) since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to price lists issued by Fauji Fertilizer Company, Pakistan’s sole DAP manufacturer. Farmers say retail prices are even higher, at around Rs18,000 ($65).

For Muneer Ahmed, who grows wheat on nine acres in Jhurby village in southern Sindh province’s Mirpurkhas district, the rising cost has left little choice but to switch to a cheaper fertilizer.

“We cannot use DAP and are using 23-23 instead,” Ahmed told Arab News , referring to nitrophosphate (NP), a fertilizer commonly known by its nutrient ratio.

NP costs around Rs10,500 ($38) per bag, roughly 42 percent less than DAP. But Ahmed fears the switch could come at a heavy cost to his harvest.

“If this [NP] yields 25 maund per acre, then that [DAP] will be 45-50 maund per acre,” he estimated.

A maund is equivalent to 40 kilograms. While actual yields depend on soil conditions, fertilizer application and other factors, Ahmed’s calculations reflect the difficult choices facing farmers as the wheat planting season approaches.

The price surge follows disruptions to trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for Gulf exports, since the conflict began. Reduced fertilizer shipments from the region have pushed up international prices and the cost of raw materials used in fertilizer production.

Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to these increases because it imports nearly half the DAP it consumes. Of the approximately 1.5 million tons used annually, around 800,000 tons is produced locally, according to Karachi-based brokerage Insight Securities.

“Our local DAP prices are based on import parity prices. So, if there is an increase in DAP prices internationally, it reflects in local DAP prices as well,” said Minal Ali, a research analyst at Insight Securities.

Fertilizer demand is already showing signs of weakness. DAP sales fell 3 percent to 775,000 tons during January-September 2026 compared with the same period last year, according to Insight Securities, citing National Fertilizer Development Center data.

FEWER ACRES, SMALLER HARVESTS

For farmers, the consequences extend beyond the price of a single agricultural input. Higher fertilizer costs, combined with rising fuel and transport expenses, are forcing some to reconsider how much wheat they can afford to grow.

Muhammad Iqbal, senior vice president of the Farmers Organization Council, cultivates around 600 acres in Mirpurkhas but plans to plant wheat on fewer than 50 acres this season after suffering losses on more than 100 acres last year.

“Right now, the landowner is worried about planting wheat,” he said. “The first thing we need is the DAP fertilizer.”

DAP supplies phosphorus, a nutrient essential for root development and crop growth. Iqbal said farmers typically need two bags to achieve the yields they seek, but many can no longer afford the recommended quantities.

“If we apply one sack [of DAP], then there is a difference of 30 to 35 maunds [per acre],” he said.

Without sufficient fertilizer, he estimated, yields could fall to around 20-25 maunds per acre, although the impact varies with growing conditions.

The pressure is also evident at fertilizer shops.

“Earlier, people used to use it [DAP] well. Now, they ask the rates and leave without buying it,” said Mukhtar Ahmed Khan, a retailer in Mirpurkhas.

For Iqbal, fertilizer prices are only part of the uncertainty. He said doubts over government wheat procurement and the prices farmers will receive for their crops have further discouraged cultivation.

Pakistan’s food ministry has announced a minimum wheat support price of Rs4,500 ($16) per 40 kilograms, but Iqbal questioned whether farmers would actually receive that amount.

PRESSURE ON WHEAT SUPPLIES

Reduced fertilizer use and shrinking cultivation could pose a wider problem for Pakistan, which has already struggled to produce enough wheat to meet domestic demand.

In July, the government decided to import one million tons of wheat after shortages and rising flour prices strained supplies in parts of the country.

The Federal Committee on Agriculture had set a wheat production target of 29.7 million tons for the 2025-26 winter growing season, but output was estimated at 27.5 million tons in May after cultivated area and yields fell short of projections.

A further decline in production could increase Pakistan’s dependence on imported wheat, adding pressure to a country already facing financial constraints.

Minal Ali of Insight Securities warned that declining DAP use could affect wheat productivity and increase the need for imports.

Agriculture officials in Sindh acknowledge the growing strain on farmers.

“If you don’t give DAP in a basal dose, then your yield per acre will be affected,” said Imran Ali Kumbhar, deputy director at the agriculture extension department in Mirpurkhas, referring to fertilizer applied at planting.

The provincial government has begun offering a subsidy of Rs4,000 ($14) per acre to small farmers cultivating between one and 25 acres, Kumbhar said.

About 300,000 farmers have registered in Sindh, with enrollment continuing for the current winter growing season.

But for growers such as Ahmed, who are already contending with higher fuel and freight costs, the subsidy may ease only part of the financial burden.

“We are worried because of the war. May Allah save us from this,” he said.