There
is no convincing reason to believe that the May 2 raid conducted by the United
States at a residential place in Abbottabad did take out Osama Bin Laden or
that the same was conducted without the prior knowledge or approval of
Pakistan. All that has come out so far suggests otherwise.
The
unfolding narrative has necessarily to be seen in the perspective of the
divorce made by Islamabad consequent to the capture of CIA operative Raymond
Davis in Lahore on Jan. 27 and his interrogation at the hands of the notorious
Punjab police about which many South Asians share a joke.
That
has to do with how a certain stolen donkey of a village influential was
“recovered” by cops from this force in the form of a poor elephant shouting all
the way on top of his voice from the wilderness to the habitation: “I am that
same donkey.”
So
this particular White elephant of ours sang like a canary after being feted by
studsat
the dingy Old Anarkali Police Station overnight. He compromised in the process
not only his own mission; which was but one string of the covert war launched
by the CIA to destabilize Pakistan; but also numerous cells of fifth columnists
spread all over the country.
That
turned the tables on both America and its quislings within Pakistani political
and diplomatic echelons. All strategic decisions came under the firm grip of
the military leadership. It still suited the latter to let the democratic
circus go on.
Having
ended the marriage of inconvenience with Uncle Sam that it had been coerced
into at gunpoint following 9/11, Islamabad effectively broke off whatever
little cooperation it had been obliged to extend to the pathological sex
offender. It was time for the ugly American to pack his bags and go back to
where he had come from.
The
United States was for once desperate. It still beseeched a less than
dishonorable exit (of most but not all of its military presence) from
Afghanistan. Pakistan obliged with the caveat that Washington would utilize it
strategic partnership with New Delhi to arrive at a peaceful settlement of the
Kashmir dispute.
Kashmir,
with Pakistan’s water lifeline of the Indus River System emanating
overwhelmingly from the territory of the former Princely State under India’s
illegitimate control, has become a concern of the state’s survival.
India
has persistently, albeit not surprisingly, been eating up Pakistan’s share as
the lower riparian recipient of the Indus Water System allocated by the 1960
Treaty brokered by the United States. The large number of new projects it is
currently working on upstream pose a real and present threat to Pakistan.
If
these schemes are made operable now, India would be in a position to remove the
only physical obstacle in the way of launching a military assault to have a
handle on Pakistani Punjab’s narrow waist: it could dry up the canals; most
crucially, the Bambanwala
Ravi Bedian (BRB) Link Canal to expose Lahore; this summer by storing more
water in its planned reservoirs upstream.
Pakistan
has delivered on its word to the United States; it has let Uncle Sam take the
purported trophy of Osama’s head so that the former’s espoused “graceful” exit
can be materialized. “We had gone to war in Afghanistan to take out the big bad
guys; we have achieved the mission. Time for our brave soldiers to be reunited
with their families!” Obama would declare triumphantly. Loud applause all
across the United States.
Obama’s
popularity graph has already started going up. Upcoming mid-term Congressional
elections are finally not such a big problem for the Democratic Party; the president’s
re-election next year also appears a less formidable challenge.
What
of India? New Delhi is squirming. Deliver it must. It would not be easy for the
bloated self-image of ‘Shining’ India that cannot feed well over its
billion-plus population to come to terms with the changed geo-strategic
realties.
Then
came the attack on the Karachi naval-cum-army base of Mehran on May 22,
crippling Pakistan’s naval surveillance arm by destroying two P-3C Orion aircraft;
India and India alone has the motive for the cowardly crime. But then, what
else is new in New Delhi?
Meanwhile,
China has, taking a break from its long-held policy of not going public on
diplomatic messages to India, clearly sounded an unmistakable warning for India
to keep its hands off Pakistan.