Could China succeed where the US and Israel have failed?

The latest military confrontation between Iran and the United States has once again demonstrated an uncomfortable truth about the Middle East. Wars can alter military balances, but they rarely resolve political disputes. Instead, they deepen mistrust, damage economies and create new security dilemmas that reverberate far beyond the region. This conflict has disrupted global energy markets, heightened concerns over the security of maritime trade and reminded the international community that instability in the Arabian Gulf is a global challenge, not merely a regional one. 

At such moments, diplomacy can play a vital role. This is where China’s potential as a stabilizing force becomes relevant. Rather than relying on military alliances or coercive diplomacy, Beijing has consistently advocated dialogue, political settlement and respect for sovereignty. President Xi Jinping’s Global Security Initiative (GSI), introduced in 2022, offers no immediate solution, but its principles speak directly to the root causes of recurring crises. 

The Iran-US confrontation has exposed the limits of traditional security approaches. Decades of sanctions, military deployments and cycles of deterrence have failed to produce lasting stability. Instead, the region has experienced repeated crises, from Iraq and Syria to Yemen and Lebanon, and now renewed tensions involving Iran. This pattern suggests that security cannot be achieved through military superiority alone. Sustainable peace requires inclusive political arrangements in which all regional stakeholders have a voice. 

China has managed a careful balance in the region: forging strategic ties with Iran, maintaining substantive economic partnerships with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, and preserving channels of communication with the United States, even as Washington treats Beijing as a competitor. 

This posture affords China a credibility few major powers currently possess. Where external actors are often viewed through the lens of military intervention or alliance politics, China is generally perceived as a partner focused on economic development, connectivity and mutually beneficial cooperation. 

Its successful mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, and its continued encouragement of regional states to exercise restraint, have strengthened that credibility. Regional actors are increasingly willing to explore diplomatic alternatives when credible mediation is on offer, which is precisely why China’s role matters now. 

Wars can alter military balances, but they rarely resolve political disputes. 

-Asif Durrani

The GSI’s principles are particularly relevant in the aftermath of this conflict. It emphasizes common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, and calls for respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, adherence to the UN Charter, peaceful settlement of disputes, and regard for the legitimate security concerns of all countries. 

One of its most important contributions is its rejection of the notion that one state’s security can be achieved at the expense of another’s. In regions marked by longstanding rivalries and competing strategic interests, this principle points toward dialogue that balances security interests rather than excluding some at the expense of others, an approach especially relevant in the Gulf, where competing threat perceptions have long fueled cycles of escalation. 

For the Middle East, the central challenge remains the security and sovereignty of states. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Türkiye and the UAE, among others, are pursuing more independent foreign policies while diversifying their international partnerships. This emerging multipolar environment creates space for new diplomatic mechanisms less dependent on traditional military alliances. 

As one of the world’s largest energy importers, with Iran and the Gulf states among its major suppliers, China has a direct stake in the uninterrupted flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb. More broadly, stability in West Asia is essential to the success of the Belt and Road Initiative and to sustaining stable global supply chains. China’s interest in regional peace, then, is not simply normative. It is rooted in long-term economic interdependence. 

Expectations should nonetheless remain realistic. The GSI is not a ready-made peace plan, nor can China alone resolve the political and ideological divisions that run through the Middle East. Disputes over regional influence, nuclear issues, proxy conflicts and mutual distrust will continue to test any mediator. Beijing has also consistently preferred facilitation over direct intervention, on the principle that durable solutions must ultimately emerge from the parties themselves, an approach that should reassure states that engaging with a hostile interlocutor need not be a one-sided affair, since a neutral facilitator protects each side’s interests in the process. 

Rather than prescribing detailed measures, the GSI offers guiding principles that favor dialogue over confrontation, cooperation over bloc politics, and development over conflict. In a region where security has long been viewed mainly through a military lens, that is a meaningful conceptual shift. 

For the initiative to translate into practical outcomes, however, regional countries must assume greater ownership of their collective security. A comprehensive Gulf security dialogue, involving Iran, the GCC states, Iraq and other regional stakeholders, could gradually build confidence-building measures, strengthen crisis communication, and deepen cooperation on maritime security, counterterrorism, disaster relief and energy infrastructure protection. China, working alongside the United Nations and other international partners, could help facilitate such a process without imposing predetermined outcomes. 

Pakistan, given its longstanding relations with Iran, the Arab world and China, could likewise contribute constructively to this diplomacy. Countries with balanced relationships across competing blocs are increasingly well placed to support confidence-building efforts and defuse misunderstandings before they escalate into crises. 

The Iran-US conflict has underscored, again, that military victories alone cannot produce lasting peace. Global politics is moving toward a more multipolar order, whether or not major powers welcome it, and international security will depend increasingly on inclusive diplomacy, respect for sovereignty and shared responsibility. Xi Jinping’s Global Security Initiative offers one framework for that evolving landscape. It is now up to regional actors to replace confrontation with dialogue, on the principle that genuine security is indivisible. 

The search for lasting peace in the Middle East has often been frustrated by recurring cycles of conflict. But the lessons of recent events suggest that peace cannot be imposed through force. It must be built through trust, dialogue and cooperative security. In that endeavour, China’s Global Security Initiative deserves serious consideration, not as a panacea, but as a timely and pragmatic contribution to a region still searching for a durable peace. 

-Asif Durrani is Pakistan’s former Special Representative for Afghanistan. He has also been an ambassador to Iran and the UAE and is a Senior Research Fellow at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute.