US-Iran deal is a unique opportunity for Lebanon

A current theme among Levantine geopolitical analysts is that the US negotiations with Iran will lead to Lebanon falling deeper under the control of the Iranian regime.

I disagree with these views and believe Lebanon has a unique opportunity to break free from the Iranian occupation. The process has indeed already started. Moreover, there are several conditions in place that would make it unlikely for the regime in Iran to regain control of Hezbollah.

The first major change is the neighborhood. The Syrian territory under Bashar Assad gave Iran a logistics corridor for the transfer of weapons, missiles, drones, and ammunition to Hezbollah in Lebanon. While Hezbollah developed a local production capacity, it was dependent on this corridor for resupply. Syria played a pivotal strategic role in supporting Hezbollah, and complemented the financial and military assistance provided by Iran.

The Assad regime also allowed Hezbollah to use its territory for weapons storage and fighter training, the movement of its commanders, and the establishment of military facilities in coordination with the Revolutionary Guards. Politically, the Syrian regime provided Hezbollah with protection and support, too. This is also why Hezbollah deployed thousands of fighters to support the Assad regime during the civil war.

This close partnership is now gone. Hezbollah can no longer count on a friendly backyard to support its operations, especially during times of confrontation with Israel.

Hezbollah can no longer count on a friendly backyard to support its operations, especially during times of confrontation with Israel.

Khaled Abou Zahr

And this is the second point: will a US-Iran agreement, even if it includes Lebanon, stop future confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel? Let us answer this question with a question. Did the 2006 agreement stop new strikes? The answer is clearly no.

Another element, symbolic but important, is the domestic situation in Lebanon. After decades of occupation, the Lebanese government has, for the first time, announced a plan to disarm Hezbollah. It has also loudly condemned Iranian interference in its affairs. This comes after the political change in Syria, as well as Israeli attacks that crippled Hezbollah’s operations.

The pager attack of 2024 and the targeted assassinations of Hezbollah’s leaders have broken the might of this Iranian military wing. This has allowed, in turn, the Lebanese government to increase the severity of its tone toward Hezbollah and its master in Tehran. While actions have not been at the level of the declarations, we can nevertheless be assured that, for now, even the Rafic Hariri airport, another supply point from Iran, can no longer be used with the same impunity as in the past. Moreover, flights are observed with scrutiny when they take off from Iran.

Lebanon will not fall back into the control of Iran or, more appropriately, stay under Iranian occupation.

Khaled Abou Zahr

Now, without the change in Syria and the decapitation of Hezbollah executed by Israel, the government would have stayed silent. The current government and its declared plan to disarm Hezbollah are signs and a consequence of this change in power. And this new wave will not stop. Hezbollah has lost its image of might, and the first consequence is the fact that tongues are loosening. What was impossible to say in the past is now common conversation. Lebanon will not fall back into the control of Iran or, more appropriately, stay under Iranian occupation, but is on its way to free itself from it. No agreement will change it.

This does not mean that Hezbollah and Iran do not have cards in their hands. They have the capacity to disrupt and bring chaos to the domestic situation, but this play will lead to civil war. Hezbollah still has the capacity to control or influence the military directly or indirectly. However, Hezbollah’s capacity will continue eroding, so the only change possible for Iran to regain control of Lebanon is to order Hezbollah to organize a coup and take over the country. This is also a possibility, and the consequences would be catastrophic.

Going back to the neighborhood, the new Damascus will not allow this to happen. It would clearly be a threat to its own national security. So the negotiations with Iran are in fact a historic opportunity for Lebanon and all its communities. It is a time for optimism and for a new path for the country.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is the CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.