Can new military tech be a magic wand to victory?

Throughout history, those who wage war have sought a decisive weapon, one that would grant them an unassailable advantage, deter their enemies or deliver victory on the battlefield, ideally quickly and at low cost. In modern times, warfare and the ways in which strategic objectives are pursued have been repeatedly reshaped by the introduction of gunpowder, artillery, machine guns and, later, warplanes, missiles, nuclear weapons and now digitization and artificial intelligence.

In recent years, unmanned aerial vehicles, more commonly known as drones, have come to the fore, marking the latest phase in the evolution of military technology. Their extensive use is evident in Ukraine and, more recently, in the war involving Iran. These systems are transforming warfare not only technically but also psychologically, as unmanned flying machines are increasingly used to kill, destroy and instill fear in civilian populations.

Drones possess several distinctive characteristics that set them apart from earlier military technologies. They offer low-cost yet highly effective real-time surveillance and, more frighteningly, precise strike capabilities. Some argue that their combination of affordability and efficiency has “democratized” firepower — albeit with the troubling consequence of prolonging conflicts while inflicting widespread suffering. Their proliferation is also increasingly likely to spread to other areas of conflict.

Drones possess several distinctive characteristics that set them apart from earlier military technologies

Yossi Mekelberg

Alongside these technical impacts, there is a significant psychological dimension. For civilians especially, the constant buzzing of swarms of small aircraft, familiar now for their potential lethal consequences, creates a persistent sense of fear and vulnerability.

Despite the evolving technology, one crucial aspect remains unchanged: the decision to deploy drones and select targets still rests with human decision-makers and operators. Fully autonomous systems capable of independently navigating and choosing targets have not yet been realized, though continued advances in AI may bring this closer, adding another deeply concerning dimension to warfare.

The war in Ukraine, now stretching over several years, and the war in Iran demonstrate how relatively inexpensive weapons can reshape the battlefield. Even when many drones are intercepted, their low cost, long-range reach and precision make them highly effective tools for translating military action into political leverage. As a result, they are becoming a weapon of choice not only for well-resourced militaries but also for those with limited means.

After more than four weeks of conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel appear to have significantly degraded Iran’s military capabilities, though they remain far from achieving their broader objectives — whatever those may ultimately be. One reason for this, beyond the ruthless nature of Iran’s political system, is its extensive use of drones. Iran operates a wide range of UAVs, with ranges varying from 100 km to 3,000 km. Among them are loitering munitions, often referred to as “kamikaze drones,” which are equipped with explosives and designed to hover over a target area until a suitable objective is identified, before striking by crashing into it.

In Ukraine, the now familiar, if deeply unwelcome, sight of waves of Iranian-designed Shahed-136 drones (and now Russian-manufactured versions too) has become a defining feature of the conflict. These single-use drones, relatively slow at about 185 km per hour, can travel up to 2,500 km and cost between $20,000 and $50,000 each. Despite their simplicity, they have played a major role in sustaining the war.

Iran is now using similar systems to project power across the Middle East, including threats to maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. While they lack the sophistication of cruise missiles, they are far cheaper. For comparison, a Tomahawk missile can cost about $3.6 million and take up to two years to produce, yet may not always be more effective in terms of disruption.

As the war has turned out to be longer and more costly than expected — and also because of the spiraling cost of sophisticated military platforms and munitions — drones that can be manufactured with at least some parts from off-the-shelf components are becoming more attractive.

Much of the rapid development and deployment of drones has been shaped by lessons learned in Ukraine

Yossi Mekelberg

Much of the rapid development and deployment of drones has been shaped by lessons learned in Ukraine, further influencing other arenas, as seen with Iran. Last year, Ukraine reportedly produced 4 million drones, with plans to increase that number to 7 million. Russia, meanwhile, has produced thousands of its own versions of the Shahed-136 and uses them extensively in nightly attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Although drones had been used in previous conflicts, Ukraine is widely regarded as the first war in which they have played such a decisive and sustained role. It has been demonstrated that in prolonged and asymmetric conflicts, the widespread use of drones becomes almost inevitable. The conflict involving Iran further illustrates how these technologies can disrupt an entire region of global strategic importance.

Iran appears to be employing tactics similar to those used by Russia and it remains capable of launching dozens of drones daily, even if this represents a decline from earlier phases of the conflict. Although Gulf states have not formally joined the war, their cities, energy infrastructure and economic assets have been targeted, raising serious concerns about the broader impact of a prolonged conflict. In the Strait of Hormuz, the combination of sea mines and drones, exploiting the region’s geography, has enabled Iran to threaten maritime navigation and disrupt both regional and global economic activity.

Despite high interception rates, defending against drones presents a serious challenge. Interceptors are expensive and often in limited supply. As David Petraeus and Clara Kaluderovic recently noted in Foreign Policy, “you cannot solve a cheap problem with expensive solutions and expect to remain solvent.”

Consequently, the next phase of drone warfare is already emerging, focused on developing cost-effective countermeasures. These include radio jamming systems that disrupt communication between drones and their operators, acoustic sensors that detect their distinctive sound, high-resolution optical systems and advanced radar capable of distinguishing drones from other objects such as birds. Laser-based air defense systems are also under development and may offer a more affordable and efficient means of interception.

As with all new military technologies, early adopters gain an advantage, at least temporarily, by integrating them effectively into their strategies. However, this is invariably followed by the rapid development of countermeasures. The wars in Ukraine and involving Iran confirm that we have entered the age of drones. Given their relative affordability and ease of production, drones are likely to proliferate, reshaping future conflicts and challenging current norms of warfare. This suggests that the quest for a single magic wand in warfare may be illusory and only causes an arms race and more conflict.

• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.

X: @YMekelberg