War at the speed of AI

The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has entered a devastating new phase. On Feb. 28, the world witnessed a moment that signaled a clear shift in the dynamics of war and the nature of modern conflict. Artificial intelligence, once a tool of science and digital transformation, is now a weapon of war, deployed in real-time and at an industrial scale against human targets. We are experiencing the first AI war and its implications for humanity are profound.

On the Israeli side, the military is deploying Habsora, an AI-driven targeting system capable of generating airstrike recommendations faster than any human analyst. One Israeli intelligence source described the system as turning military operations into a “mass assassination factory,” where the focus has shifted from precision to sheer volume.

Researcher Antony Loewenstein, who has studied the system extensively, has warned that it represents a fundamental rupture in the ethics of modern warfare, with the logic of efficiency displacing the logic of proportionality. It is the same system that was battle-tested in the rubble of Gaza, which has now been repurposed for strikes against Iran.

Meanwhile, Israel’s cyber operations offer a chilling glimpse into the future of warfare. In the search for Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Israeli warplanes reportedly hacked into Tehran’s vast network of traffic cameras, turning everyday surveillance systems into precise targeting tools.

Iran has not remained passive in this AI war. It has responded with drone strikes across the Gulf and, as former FBI cyber official Cynthia Kaiser warned, may resort to targeting hospital systems in the US and allied countries with ransomware, a tactic Tehran has employed before. Furthermore, Iran’s hypersonic Fattah missiles, which have reportedly breached Israeli air defenses, are equipped with AI systems that enable them to self-correct their trajectory mid-flight, while reaching speeds approaching Mach 5.

In this new age of warfare, it is not just the weapons that have become smarter, the entire theater of conflict has been redefined by the relentless advance of AI.

Perhaps the most revealing aspect of this new era is the political crisis it has sparked within the US. Just one day before the offensive began, the Pentagon blacklisted Anthropic, the AI company behind the Claude model that is embedded in Palantir’s Maven Smart System on classified military networks and which was instrumental in selecting the first 1,000 targets. Anthropic had refused to allow its technology to be deployed for fully autonomous lethal weapons, a decision that sparked a sharp response from the Pentagon, which issued a “supply chain risk” designation against the company.

The dispute is far from settled. Despite the blacklisting, Palantir CEO Alex Karp has confirmed that Claude is still being used in military operations in Iran as the Pentagon has not phased it out. The designation, meanwhile, has turned out to be narrower than initially threatened. According to Anthropic, it applies only to military contracts, not to the company’s broader commercial business. And the tech industry has mobilized in response, with groups representing hundreds of companies filing an amicus brief in court calling for a pause on the designation — a sign of how deeply the confrontation has rattled Silicon Valley.

The episode also exposed fault lines within the industry itself. When Sam Altman of OpenAI publicly volunteered his company’s AI for military use, the backlash was swift and severe, forcing a rapid and embarrassing retreat. The reputational damage has lingered.

What was once a debate confined to ethics committees and tech conferences has now migrated to the front lines, shaping military decisions and straining international relations. This AI ethics dilemma, long treated as a distant hypothetical, is now an urgent and irreversible reality.

For the Middle East, this conflict is not a distant theater. It is happening in the neighborhood. Within days of hostilities beginning, three Amazon data centers in the UAE and Bahrain were damaged in Iranian drone strikes. The attack was not random. It was a message. AI infrastructure, the very foundation upon which the Gulf states have staked their economic future, is a legitimate military target.

However, amid these ambitious technological strides, a stark contrast emerges. The Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar foremost among them — have invested hundreds of billions of dollars to secure their positions as leaders in the global AI race.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, for example, has allocated $40 billion to AI, founding Humain, its national AI company, in partnership with Nvidia, which supplied 18,000 of its cutting-edge Blackwell chips. The UAE, meanwhile, is constructing a 26-sq. km AI campus in Abu Dhabi, the largest in the world outside the US, in collaboration with OpenAI, Oracle, Nvidia and Cisco. As such, the attacks on AI infrastructure are endangering the Middle East’s reputation as a safe place for data storage.

In this new age of warfare, the entire theater of conflict has been redefined by the relentless advance of AI.

Zaid M. Belbagi

Qatar has also launched its own national AI initiative, Qai, backed by the Qatar Investment Authority. With the Middle East and North Africa region’s technology spending projected to hit $169 billion this year, these investments represent a long-term, strategic commitment to shaping the region’s future. Yet, despite these vast ambitions, these nations now find themselves caught in the crossfire of a war they did not initiate.

The lesson the region must draw is that AI is no longer merely an economic opportunity. It is a security imperative and a dangerously unprotected one. The Gulf states must urgently extend their defense doctrines to cover digital and AI infrastructure as critical national assets, equivalent in strategic value to oil fields or desalination plants. This means hardened facilities, redundant connectivity and active air and cyber defense around AI assets. The drone attack on UAE and Bahrain data centers should be a watershed moment.

What is unfolding between Iran and Israel is not simply a Middle Eastern conflict. It is a live demonstration of what warfare and power look like in the age of AI. The first AI war is unfolding in the MENA region and those nations that recognize this shift and act now will shape the future.

• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council. X: @Moulay_Zaid