Hezbollah has no place in the future of Lebanon

The world is holding its breath about the possibility of a US military attack on Iran. As the US builds up the largest military force of warships and aircraft in the Middle East in decades while it sits and negotiates with the Iranian regime, the Lebanese are once again building a multitude of scenarios regarding what might happen. But there is one certainty: Hezbollah will not be able to participate meaningfully, if at all.

If there were any doubts, Israel is erasing them. It has intensified its airstrikes, particularly against the Iranian proxy’s missile capacity. One attack last week killed eight Hezbollah members, including senior commander Hussein Mohammed Yaghi. These operations are aimed at degrading Hezbollah’s rocket and missile capabilities. Since the ceasefire came into effect in November 2024, Israel says it has destroyed 70 percent to 80 percent of Hezbollah’s rocket fire capacity and more than 400 Hezbollah and allied operatives have been killed. The group is still believed to be storing thousands of missiles with various range capabilities. Tel Aviv has also targeted Hamas command centers in the Ain El-Hilweh refugee camp.

I doubt that relations between Hezbollah and its masters in Tehran are peachy today. Beyond precision strikes built on credible intelligence, there is no doubt that Israel has induced doubt on both sides of the relationship. The absolute, blind obedience and alignment that led Hezbollah fighters to Syria and to launch attacks that destroyed Lebanon are in disarray. Just as drops of water break the rock over time, Israel has broken this iron-clad commitment.

Just as drops of water break the rock over time, Israel has broken this iron-clad commitment

Khaled Abou Zahr

There is a double resentment. Hezbollah can easily claim that its master did not come to its aid when Israel hit it with deadly strikes. Even by ordering other proxies, such as the Iraqi ones, to intervene to alleviate their own front. And in the same way, Tehran can accuse Hezbollah of not intervening when Israel struck it last year. In reality, both sides knew that it was useless to do so, but it brings into question, for the first time, Hezbollah’s usefulness.

The raison d’etre of Hezbollah is to defend the Iranian regime until it can build nuclear military capacity. Once this is done, then a new “Iron Dome” will protect all of Tehran’s interests and aggressive, expansionist policies. Lately, however, it has been incapable of fulfilling its designated role.

In brief, Hezbollah is expected to fight when the mullahs are attacked, but the reciprocity does not stand. This is the role of a proxy. For many years, I have described Hezbollah as an artificial power and have been mocked for it quite often. Today, this has been confirmed. It has survived and thrived through the acceptance by the US and the West of a geopolitical order in the region and of a status quo toward Iran. This has allowed it to take control of Lebanon and kill at its own leisure. Truth be told, this artificial power has been fueled not by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ billions and arsenal, but by Lebanese blood and the destruction of a country.

Ultimately, Hezbollah, which is an integral part of the Iranian regime’s military apparatus, needs to think wisely. Let me rephrase this: the new Hezbollah leadership, following the persistent wave of targeted eliminations, should stop for a minute and think. All the signs point to the end of its role. If we look at it from the Iranian side, it has become obsolete due to Israel’s technological advances. And if we look at it from the US or Western side, whether Iran complies with the US’ nonnegotiables or not, Hezbollah will no longer be granted the “right to resistance” it gained in the 1990s.

It is high time Hezbollah read this major geopolitical change and realized that its days are numbered

Khaled Abou Zahr

This means that being the only legally permitted armed group in Lebanon has become “caduque” (obsolete). It is high time Hezbollah read this major geopolitical change and realized that its days are numbered. Its members whose hands are not yet soaked in blood face a clear choice. They can either push the group to surrender its arsenal and shift toward a new political formation, one that would need to be described as “postreligious,” meaning it would represent the Shiite community while not pushing a religious agenda for the entire state. If they do not, it will face complete destruction. In both outcomes, Hezbollah will not exist. Not in name and not in political representation.

A new Shiite political leadership needs to emerge. Hezbollah has no place in the future of Lebanon. It can follow the example of European political parties post-Second World War. While staying rooted in Christian values, parties in Italy and Germany, for example, gradually evolved toward governance and economic policy rather than explicitly religious goals. Moreover, we can no longer have a group that follows transnational goals and whose loyalty and guidance originate from outside Lebanon’s borders.

The clock is ticking. Hezbollah should free itself from the Iranian regime. There is a very slight chance of this happening and one would imagine that the IRGC would want to make sure, in case US President Donald Trump decides on military action, that the proxy it created and invested in pays up, even if this means it will be the last thing it does. On the other hand, there is no doubt it will be on the menu if an agreement is reached between Washington and Tehran.

This is why fully complying with the Lebanese plan to disarm Hezbollah is now in the group’s interest, as many see its justification for existing as being destroyed in most of the possible scenarios facing the country. If it chooses the hard way, it is a certainty that this would be the last time it causes destruction and death in Lebanon.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.