Why Saudi‑Turkish convergence matters to the region

I have spent the past 15 years working on Saudi-Turkish ties and have written extensively on their relationship. Regarding the nature of their relationship, I often use the term “occasional partners.”

A combination of regional and international factors pushes the two countries toward cooperation when it comes to developments regarding the balance of power in the region. We saw this in the early 2000s, when the developments were mostly about power distribution and Turkiye and Saudi Arabia approached each other positively, keeping aside their domestic considerations. They were able to manage their differences through different tools of dialogue and cooperation.

However, when the driver of regional developments was mostly ideological or personal in nature, we saw domestic factors restrain their relationship. The case of the post-2010 developments in the Middle East was the best example in this regard.

However, the region has now entered a new era of regional developments, beginning with the war in Gaza and followed by the fall of the Assad regime, Israel’s attacks on several regional states, the situations in Yemen and Somalia, and US policies in the Middle East, bringing Ankara and Riyadh onto the same page once again. This time, the region is far more polarized and increasingly vulnerable to crises that pose serious threats to both countries.

Turkiye and Saudi Arabia are both middle powers with regional ambitions. Their power and influence, however, comes with both strengths and limitations. The past shows that when the interests of these two powers converge, a new regional balance that better serves their interests emerges.

First, both countries face structural challenges along their southern fronts. While Turkiye closely monitors what happens at its border with Syria, Saudi Arabia does the same along its border with Yemen. This parallel security outlook helps explain why Ankara supports Riyadh’s position in Yemen and why the Kingdom understands Turkiye’s stance on Syria. 

Security cooperation is the main locomotive of Turkish-Saudi convergence

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

 

For Saudi Arabia, Yemen is geopolitically and strategically vital and the Houthis pose what it views as an existential threat. For Turkiye, Syria is equally critical, as Kurdish groups there are seen as threatening Turkiye’s stability and security. In addition, Israel’s actions complicate the situation in Syria, while in Yemen multiple actors continue to deepen the challenges facing the Kingdom.

On Sunday, during a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated Ankara’s readiness to contribute to efforts aimed at bringing together the rival parties in Yemen. In 2015, Turkiye also supported the Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen when it launched Operation Decisive Storm against the Houthis. Turkiye sought Saudi backing on Syria in return for its support on Yemen and the two sides worked together closely during that period.

These experiences show that this is not the first instance in which Turkiye and Saudi Arabia have aligned their policies and coordinated efforts to address both immediate crises and longer-term regional challenges.

In addition to Yemen, Erdogan also stated that Turkiye is closely monitoring developments in Somalia, emphasizing the importance of preserving the country’s stability and territorial integrity. Israel’s policies from Gaza to Somalia do not align with the regional vision shared by Turkiye and Saudi Arabia. In response to what they view as Israel’s destabilizing actions, Ankara and Riyadh are working to build a broader regional consensus that includes traditional Arab powers such as Egypt, Iraq and Syria. In my opinion, this consensus is unlikely to remain purely at the political level.

Turkiye has begun deepening its security cooperation with these Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia. On Wednesday, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia held their first naval forces cooperation and coordination meeting in Ankara, following last month’s high-level military talks in Riyadh. In 2024, the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces also participated in a multinational military exercise in Turkiye. Defense and security cooperation is emerging as a key driver of Turkish-Saudi convergence.

I describe the growing Turkish-Saudi partnership using three Cs: convergence, consensus, and cooperation. Turkiye and Saudi Arabia have begun to converge on several regional issues, building consensus and moving toward solid cooperation.

The first and most important pillar of their partnership is Gaza. Both countries seek to curb Israeli aggression and firmly support Palestinian statehood. Saudi Arabia, in particular, wants to see Turkiye’s inclusion in any post-Gaza war framework, despite Israeli objections.

A second pillar of cooperation is Syria. Riyadh and Ankara share a vision of a strong, unified Syrian state, a position that stands in direct contrast to Israel’s approach.

Third, the two countries are aligned on Yemen and Somalia, where various actors are pushing for state fragmentation — an outcome neither Turkiye nor Saudi Arabia is willing to accept.

Finally, Egypt, Iraq and Syria have shown interest in joining an emerging Turkish-Saudi alignment. In this sense, closer cooperation between Ankara and Riyadh could act as a driving force, encouraging broader regional coordination.

It is increasingly clear that there is a serious understanding in both Riyadh and Ankara in favor of a deeper partnership at all levels. Developments at both the regional and bilateral levels suggest that this cooperation could evolve into something even closer.

Today, a new reality is taking shape. Rather than pursuing regional dominance, shared regional ownership better serves their interests, as it involves not only sharing the benefits but also jointly shouldering the burden of regional challenges.

That said, regional structural incentives can change. To sustain this momentum, greater emphasis on personal diplomacy, as well as stronger institutional cooperation in defense and economic frameworks, could help solidify the Turkish-Saudi partnership over the long term.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz