LONDON: Maher thought he would never set foot in his Damascus neighborhood again after he fled 13 years ago. But when a rebel offensive toppled the Bashar Assad regime a year ago, he seized the opportunity to return to his home in the Yarmouk camp.

Four months ago, the Syrian-Palestinian father of two returned to the capital to see whether he could move his family back to their former home. However, hopes of rebuilding his past life there were quickly dashed when he saw the extent of the damage.

“The neighborhood is now in ruins, and our home is nothing but a pile of gray rubble,” Maher told Arab News. “It was painful, sad, hard to see.”

Thirteen years earlier, Maher — whose name has been changed to protect his identity — was forced to flee when regime forces besieged Yarmouk to root out rebel fighters it claimed were hiding in the Palestinian camp.

As the civil war engulfed the country, Maher decided to leave Syria altogether, joining the millions who paid smugglers to take them on the perilous sea crossing to Europe.

With Assad gone, Maher allowed himself to dream of returning to his city of birth. But that dream was soon deferred. “Is Syria stable? Not yet,” he said. “Is it safe? Too early to tell. Syria’s recovery will need a long, long time, it seems.”

On Dec. 8, 2024, Damascus awoke to news that many once thought impossible — the end of 54 years of Assad family rule. Within nine months, more than 1 million refugees and 1.8 million internally displaced people returned to their hometowns, according to UN figures.

However, a November survey by the International Rescue Committee in Jordan and Lebanon found that 46 percent of respondents cited safety concerns and limited access to services, housing and livelihoods as obstacles to their return.

The World Bank estimates that reconstruction will cost $216 billion, noting that the conflict destroyed nearly one-third of Syria’s prewar capital stock and caused $108 billion in direct physical damage.

Despite stabilization measures put in place by the interim authorities, led by President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, whose group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham spearheaded the 2024 offensive, obstacles to safe and sustainable returns remain.

Security is foremost among them. Violence has flared in multiple regions in recent months, underscoring the fragility of the transition. Humanitarian groups also warn that damaged infrastructure and failing public services remain serious barriers.

“Although a quarter of refugees interviewed recently by the IRC in neighboring countries have expressed a desire to return, the reality on the ground remains deeply challenging,” Juan Gabriel Wells, IRC’s country director for Syria, said on Nov. 17.

“For too many … returning under current conditions is simply not the same as returning safely, with dignity, or with any guarantee of permanence.”

Pressure is rising in many host countries for Syrians to return home.

Harout Ekmanian, a New York-based attorney specializing in public international law at Foley Hoag LLP, told Arab News that a voluntary, safe, dignified and sustainable return must be “free, informed, and uncoerced,” based on “accurate, up to date information on conditions, viable alternatives to return, and no direct or indirect pressure.”

This, he said, is rooted in the non-refoulement obligation of the 1951 Refugee Convention and UNHCR guidelines.

Ekmanian said returns must also be physically, legally and materially safe, with “an effective end to persecution or generalized violence and credible guarantees of non-discrimination, liberty and security of person, and freedom of movement, supported by functioning rule of law institutions, removal of arbitrary detention risks, clearance of mines and unexploded ordnance, and access to civil documentation.”

Sustainability demands long-term access to housing, livelihoods, services, remedies for past violations and safeguards against renewed displacement, he added.

Even with the easing of Western sanctions on Syria, the country’s road to recovery will be long.

Social and economic indicators paint a difficult picture, with 66 percent of the population living in extreme poverty, 89 percent facing food insecurity, youth unemployment standing at 60 percent, and 3.5 million children out of school, according to UN agencies.

These metrics may soon improve, however. The US has significantly shifted its approach to Syria following a historic meeting between Al-Sharaa and President Donald Trump at the White House in early November, opening up new avenues for recovery.

The US Treasury issued a general license to permit previously prohibited transactions with the new Syrian government and its central bank, stepping back from the rigid regime maintained under the Assad era.

This move is intended to encourage reconstruction, attract foreign investment, and facilitate Syria’s reintegration into the international economy.

It marks the most sweeping US sanctions relief for Syria in decades, promising economic revitalization if reforms and cooperation continue. The benefits, however, may not be felt immediately.

“Economically, the country is in a bad condition, and that’s nothing to do with the government — they inherited a bad system,” Fadi Al-Dairi, co-founder and regional director of the Syrian-British charity Hand in Hand for Aid and Development, told Arab News.

“Everyone who speaks to me and to my other colleagues just needs a job to earn a living. However, with the high cost of living in Syria, it just makes it not worth it to work these days.

“For example, if they come to work and earn $200, they would be spending about $100 on transportation if they live in Damascus. That would leave them with just $100 to live on. That’s not enough.

“The cost of living varies from one city to another, and even within the same governorate. For example, the cost of living inside Damascus is different from the suburbs.”

The World Food Programme says food insecurity has deepened since Assad’s fall, with nearly 3 million people projected to face severe hunger.

The UN Development Programme warns that recovery must move beyond rebuilding infrastructure to restoring governance, reconciliation and social cohesion.

“As humanitarians, we’ve tried our best,” Al-Dairi said. “We’ve been providing a life-saving response, and at the same time, we keep demanding from donors and partners that the response becomes more sustainable.”

Meanwhile, the interim government has tried to attract foreign investment. But the impact on daily life has so far been minimal.

“We’re seeing so many businesspeople and companies rushing in, thinking Syria is simply the next place to invest,” Al-Dairi said, warning that the rapid influx is only contributing to the soaring cost of living.

“As an investor myself, of course I want to earn a good living, but things need to happen step by step,” he said.

“Take the electricity issue. They’re rehabilitating the infrastructure and the network, but this has come at a cost — a 900 percent increase in electricity prices — because investors want to get their money back almost immediately.”

Indeed, a projected spike in electricity bills has angered many residents. A recent investigation by the Syrian news website Enab Baladi found that 83 percent of Syrians cannot afford the new bills.

“We don’t want to repeat these problems,” said Al-Dairi.

For example, “if our road networks are in poor condition, we need to fix them responsibly. We shouldn’t immediately privatize the roads and force people to either use expensive motorways or go through B-roads via the countryside.”

Still, some see opportunity in Syria’s vast diaspora. The World Bank says returning refugees could help drive a medium-term economic revival if trade and investment resume.

Of the 7 million Syrians living abroad, Al-Dairi estimates roughly half have the financial capacity to invest. “If Syrians themselves are investing, then others might invest too,” he said. “One of my recommendations to the Syrian government is to look seriously at the diaspora.”

Mohamed Ghazal, managing director of Startup Syria, a community-led initiative supporting Syrian entrepreneurs, says small-scale investments are already emerging from Syrians abroad who understand local risks and conditions.

“These investors possess deep familiarity with the local market, culture, and operational environment, allowing them to accurately assess risks and opportunities,” he told Arab News, adding that “the capital brought in tends to be modest, reflecting the high-risk environment.”

In contrast, medium and large investments “remain largely on hold” until sanctions are fully lifted and regulations stabilize, Ghazal added.

“Major investors are concerned about the current economic and regulatory uncertainty, which is not conducive to establishing sustainable, long-term cash flow,” he said.

“These entities are largely waiting for the full lifting of sanctions to gain a clearer picture of the regulatory landscape and mitigate geopolitical risk before committing large funds.”

Ghazal said the interim government must create incentives that ensure physical and economic security for Syrian investors and provide clear, reliable legal frameworks.

Al-Dairi suggested that Syrians could also support one another through Islamic-inspired “qard hassan,” or benevolent loans, offering culturally acceptable financing for rebuilding without burdening borrowers with high interest.

But despite the many challenges, he remains convinced that Syrians themselves will play a central role in reconstruction.

“I’ll put this diplomatically,” he said. “We’ve seen many warlords and many who benefited from the conflict. But overall, Syrians will have an important part to play.”