Moody’s affirms Egypt’s Caa1 rating with positive outlook

The positive outlook grading reflects the measures taken by the government to control inflation and interest rates. Shutterstock
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Updated 20 February 2025
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Moody’s affirms Egypt’s Caa1 rating with positive outlook

RIYADH: Global credit rating agency Moody’s has affirmed Egypt’s Caa1 long-term foreign and local currency rating with a positive outlook, citing improved debt service prospects.

A report from the organization said the move was driven by the country’s stronger foreign exchange reserves and lower borrowing costs following the currency’s devaluation and flotation.

Moody’s awards a Caa1 rating to countries with poor quality and very high credit risks, but the positive outlook reflects the measures taken by the government to control inflation and interest rates.

According to the agency, some factors negatively affecting the credit profile include Egypt’s high, albeit declining debt ratio, very weak debt affordability compared to peers, and persistently large domestic and external financing needs. 

Egypt’s credit rating is much lower than that of its Middle East and North African neighbors, such as Saudi Arabia, which was ranked Aa3 with a stable outlook in November, and the UAE, which was rated Aa2 in the same month. 

Explaining its decision regarding Egypt, the Moody's report said: “Monetary policy credibility and effectiveness is increasing as the central bank maintains a policy stance consistent with inflation targeting and a floating exchange rate regime. This should allow policy rates to decline, bringing further relief on the cost of debt, while maintaining an environment favorable to steady foreign-currency inflows.” 

It added: “However, credit vulnerabilities reflected in the Caa1 ratings continue to pose risk to Egypt achieving durable improvements in fiscal and external positions.” 

According to Moody’s, some of the additional factors that played a crucial role in maintaining the positive outlook include the implementation of measures by the central bank to tighten the money supply as outlined in the International Monetary Fund program parameters. 

Some of those measures include suppression and repayment of direct central bank loans to public entities and a tightening in reserve money growth. 

The positive outlook also reflects prospects of an improvement in foreign direct investments in the country. 

“Significant foreign direct investment inflows and future project development commitments, together with the shift to a market-based exchange rate regime, have boosted capital inflows and replenished Egypt’s liquid foreign exchange reserve buffers to $36 billion in January 2025,” said Moody’s. 

In December, the IMF announced that it reached an agreement with Egyptian authorities, allowing the North African nation to access about $1.2 billion to strengthen its troubled finances. 

The IMF added that the funding access is subject to executive board approval. 

The high inflation rate and low revenue from the Suez Canal have drastically affected Egypt’s economy over the last few months. 

Speaking at the Rome MED — Mediterranean Dialogues conference in November, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty said that the country had incurred losses amounting to $8 billion due to a significant drop in the Suez Canal revenues. 

The US-based agency added that the constraints faced by Egypt’s economy could raise its susceptibility to capital outflows in times of external shocks. 

“This vulnerability is further compounded by ongoing risks to fiscal consolidation and sustained improvements in debt and debt affordability, taking into account large contingent liabilities in the public sector and very limited fiscal room to meet social spending needs while maintaining primary surpluses,” the report added. 

Moody’s also highlighted some possible scenarios that could lead to an upgrade of the country’s ratings, including the prospect of a significant and durable improvement in debt affordability through a sustained increase in revenue. 

The analysis added that sustained foreign direct investment inflows in the country could also boost confidence in Egypt’s growth prospects and macroeconomic rebalancing potential, supporting a higher rating.

Regarding the factors that could lead to a downgrade, Moody’s said: “A rising likelihood of renewed capital outflows or diminished inflows which reduce the prospect of a durable improvement in Egypt’s macroeconomic and external position would be credit negative.” 


World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience.
Updated 23 January 2026
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World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

  • Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
  • Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience

DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.

Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.

“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.

Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.

“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.

His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.

“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.

Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.

Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.

Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”

Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.

Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.

She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.

Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.

Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.

Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.

Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”

In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.

“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.

American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”

Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.

“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.

Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.

Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.

“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.

Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier. 

“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.

Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.

“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.

The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.

“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.

“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.

Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.

“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.

WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.