RIYADH: Global sustainable bond issuance is projected to reach $1 trillion in 2025, driven by a worldwide focus on green development, according to global credit rating agency Moody’s.
In their latest report, the New York-based firm said that increased examination of greenwashing, changes in market norms and regulations, and a more intricate landscape, which includes political challenges in certain nations, are expected to impede growth.
This aligns with the green bond market, which has advanced a decade beyond the international treaty on climate change that was signed in 2016, known as the Paris Agreement. The market provides a boost to the sector as initial issuances are gradually approaching maturity.
The impending maturity wave is set to escalate this year and 2026, signifying additional refinancing requirements alongside regular issuance goals, according to capital market firm AXA Investment Managers.
“We expect global sustainable bond issuance to total $1 trillion in 2025, in line with 2024. Social bonds will be constrained by a lack of benchmark-sized projects, while transition-labeled bonds and sustainability-linked bonds will remain niche segments as they navigate evolving market sentiment,” Moody’s report said.
“A continued focus on climate mitigation financing, as well as growing interest in climate adaptation and nature, will spur green and sustainability bond issuance,” it added. “Meanwhile, the widening gaps between decarbonization ambitions and implementation will be brought into focus by the contrast of fresh pledges and increasingly destructive climate events.”
Regarding the outlook on environmental, social, and governance factors, Moody’s said the risks this year will be influenced by policy decisions and financing.
“Companies will encounter challenges in handling environmental and social risks within their supply chains. Additionally, technological disruptions, climate change, and demographic shifts could exacerbate social risks and pose policy obstacles for governments,” the agency added.
In November, Moody’s said that global issuance of sustainable bonds in the third quarter of last year reached $216 billion, marking a 9 percent annual increase.
It said at the time that the year-on-year increase in green, social, sustainability, and sustainability-linked bonds came despite a quarter-on-quarter drop, with the volume issued down 14 percent in the three months to the end of September compared to the preceding period.
For the first nine months of 2024, sustainable bond volumes reached $769 billion, marking a 3 percent decline compared to the same period last year.
Despite the quarterly dip, Moody’s forecasted that the total sustainable bond volumes will reach $950 billion in 2024 “buoyed by relatively robust volumes in the first half of the year and continued issuer appetite for funding environmental and social projects with labeled bonds.”
