ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s central bank is expected to deliver a sixth consecutive policy rate cut this month, a poll found on Tuesday, ahead of a meeting of the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Jan. 27.
The State Bank of Pakistan cut its key policy rate by 200 basis points to 13 percent on Dec. 16. This was the fifth straight reduction since June as Pakistan keeps up efforts to revive a sluggish economy with inflation easing.
The move made last year’s cuts one of the most aggressive among emerging market central banks in the current easing cycle. Cumulatively, the SBP cut rates by 900 basis points in the last year.
In a poll conducted by Karachi-based Topline Securities, 61 percent of the participants expected that the central bank will announce a rate cut of 100 basis points.
“Participants are expecting rate cut due to high real rates of 950bps in Jan. 2025, compared to historic average of 200-300bps, despite 900bps cut in total interest rates in last five consecutive meetings since Jun 2024,” Topline Securities said on Tuesday.
“We also hold the view that the SBP will announce a rate cut of 100bps, taking total cut to 1000bps. This will be 6th consecutive cut of this cycle.”
In Dec. the MPC assessed that its approach of measured policy rate cuts was keeping inflationary and external account pressures in check, while supporting economic growth on a sustainable basis.
The central bank noted that it expected inflation to average “substantially below” its earlier forecast range of 11.5 percent to 13.5 percent in 2025.
On the inflation side, 56 percent of the participants expected inflation to remain below 8 percent this fiscal year (July 2024-June 2025), according to Topline Securities.
The South Asian country is navigating a challenging economic recovery path and has been buttressed by a $7 billion facility from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September.
The central bank has said that “considerable efforts and additional measures” will be required for Pakistan to meet its annual revenue target, a key focus of the IMF agreement.
POLL: Pakistan central bank set to deliver sixth consecutive rate cut to revive economy
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POLL: Pakistan central bank set to deliver sixth consecutive rate cut to revive economy
- On the inflation side, 56 percent participants of the poll expect inflation to remain below 8 percent this fiscal year
- Pakistan requires ‘considerable efforts, additional measures’ to meet revenue target, central bank says
Islamabad says surge in aircraft orders after India standoff could end IMF reliance
- Pakistani jets came into the limelight after Islamabad claimed to have shot down six Indian aircraft during a standoff in May last year
- Many countries have since stepped up engagement with Pakistan, while others have proposed learning from PAF’s multi-domain capabilities
ISLAMABAD: Defense Minister Khawaja Asif on Tuesday said Pakistan has witnessed a surge in aircraft orders after a four-day military standoff with India last year and, if materialized, they could end the country’s reliance on the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The statement came hours after a high-level Bangladeshi defense delegation met Pakistan’s Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu to discuss a potential sale of JF-17 Thunder aircraft, a multi-role fighter jointly developed by China and Pakistan that has become the backbone of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) over the past decade.
Fighter jets used by Pakistan came into the limelight after Islamabad claimed to have shot down six Indian aircraft, including French-made Rafale jets, during the military conflict with India in May last year. India acknowledged losses in the aerial combat but did not specify a number.
Many countries have since stepped up defense engagement with Pakistan, while delegations from multiple other nations have proposed learning from Pakistan Air Force’s multi-domain air warfare capabilities that successfully advanced Chinese military technology performs against Western hardware.
“Right now, the number of orders we are receiving after reaching this point is significant because our aircraft have been tested,” Defense Minister Asif told a Pakistan’s Geo News channel.
“We are receiving those orders, and it is possible that after six months we may not even need the IMF.”
Pakistan markets the Chinese co-developed JF-17 as a lower-cost multi-role fighter and has positioned itself as a supplier able to offer aircraft, training and maintenance outside Western supply chains.
“I am saying this to you with full confidence,” Asif continued. “If, after six months, all these orders materialize, we will not need the IMF.”
Pakistan has repeatedly turned to the IMF for financial assistance to stabilize its economy. These loans come with strict conditions including fiscal reforms, subsidy cuts and measures to increase revenue that Pakistan must implement to secure disbursements.
In Sept. 2024, the IMF approved a $7 billion bailout for Pakistan under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program and a separate $1.4 billion loan under its climate resilience fund in May 2025, aimed at strengthening the country’s economic and climate resilience.
Pakistan has long been striving to expand defense exports by leveraging its decades of counter-insurgency experience and a domestic industry that produces aircraft, armored vehicles, munitions and other equipment.
The South Asian country reached a deal worth over $4 billion to sell military equipment to the Libyan National Army, Reuters report last month, citing Pakistani officials. The deal, one of Pakistan’s largest-ever weapons sales, included the sale of 16 JF-17 fighter jets and 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft for basic pilot training.
