ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s central bank is expected to deliver a sixth consecutive policy rate cut this month, a poll found on Tuesday, ahead of a meeting of the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Jan. 27.
The State Bank of Pakistan cut its key policy rate by 200 basis points to 13 percent on Dec. 16. This was the fifth straight reduction since June as Pakistan keeps up efforts to revive a sluggish economy with inflation easing.
The move made last year’s cuts one of the most aggressive among emerging market central banks in the current easing cycle. Cumulatively, the SBP cut rates by 900 basis points in the last year.
In a poll conducted by Karachi-based Topline Securities, 61 percent of the participants expected that the central bank will announce a rate cut of 100 basis points.
“Participants are expecting rate cut due to high real rates of 950bps in Jan. 2025, compared to historic average of 200-300bps, despite 900bps cut in total interest rates in last five consecutive meetings since Jun 2024,” Topline Securities said on Tuesday.
“We also hold the view that the SBP will announce a rate cut of 100bps, taking total cut to 1000bps. This will be 6th consecutive cut of this cycle.”
In Dec. the MPC assessed that its approach of measured policy rate cuts was keeping inflationary and external account pressures in check, while supporting economic growth on a sustainable basis.
The central bank noted that it expected inflation to average “substantially below” its earlier forecast range of 11.5 percent to 13.5 percent in 2025.
On the inflation side, 56 percent of the participants expected inflation to remain below 8 percent this fiscal year (July 2024-June 2025), according to Topline Securities.
The South Asian country is navigating a challenging economic recovery path and has been buttressed by a $7 billion facility from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September.
The central bank has said that “considerable efforts and additional measures” will be required for Pakistan to meet its annual revenue target, a key focus of the IMF agreement.