UAE’s non-oil activity sees PMI hit 9-month high; Egypt’s output declines: S&P Global

Buoyant market conditions helped non-oil business owners secure new clients and larger order books. Shutterstock
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Updated 06 January 2025
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UAE’s non-oil activity sees PMI hit 9-month high; Egypt’s output declines: S&P Global

  • S&P Global said Kuwait’s PMI stood at 54.1 in December, marginally down from 55.9 in November

RIYADH: Non-oil business activity in the UAE surged in December, with the Emirates’ Purchasing Managers’ Index jumping to a nine-month high of 55.4, up from 54.2 in November, an economy tracker showed. 

According to S&P Global, the robust expansion was driven by strong demand conditions, underscoring continued growth in the non-oil private sector. 

The performance aligns with the UAE’s broader diversification strategy under its Vision 2031, which focuses on expanding the non-oil sector and promoting industries such as manufacturing, tourism, and technology to ensure sustainable economic growth. 

“The UAE saw its best expansion in non-oil business conditions for nine months in December, with the latest PMI data closing out another year of continuous growth and putting the sector in a strong position for 2025,” said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Any PMI readings above 50 indicate growth in the non-oil sector, while readings below 50 signal contraction, S&P Global noted. 

Non-oil business owners surveyed said buoyant market conditions helped them secure new clients and larger order books. However, staffing levels rose at one of the slowest rates in more than two-and-a-half years.

“Capacity levels remain under considerable stress, however, illustrated by another marked increase in backlogs of work. Recruitment appears to be the limiting factor — the pace of employment growth was barely changed from November’s 31-month low,” said Owen. 

He added that rising costs and margin pressures discouraged firms from ramping up staffing levels despite growing workloads. 

Input costs increased during December, although inflation eased to its softest pace since March. Meanwhile, optimism among non-oil firms about future growth ticked down for the second consecutive month. 

Dubai’s PMI also reached a nine-month high of 55.5 in December, up from 53.9 in the previous month. 

The emirate saw faster expansions in output and new orders, reflecting stronger client demand and busy market conditions. 

“In both cases, rates of growth were stronger than those observed at the UAE level,” said S&P Global. 

However, the report highlighted weaker optimism among non-oil business firms in Dubai regarding the coming year, with confidence falling to its lowest level since May 2021. Only 6 percent of surveyed companies anticipated output growth in 2025. 

The UAE’s performance highlights the success of economic diversification strategies across Gulf Cooperation Council nations, which continue to reduce reliance on oil revenues. 

The region’s positive trend extended to Saudi Arabia, where the December PMI hit 58.4, driven by a sharp increase in new orders. The Kingdom’s PMI has remained above the neutral 50 mark since September 2020, underlining sustained expansion in the non-oil private sector. 

Egypt’s PMI falls below 50 

In contrast, Egypt’s PMI dropped to 48.1 in December from 49.2 in November, signaling a sharper contraction in private sector activity. Subdued client demand led to the steepest decline in output in eight months, particularly in the construction, wholesale, and retail sectors. 

The analysis noted that activity in the services sector remained relatively stable, benefiting from a steadier level of new business compared to other monitored sectors. 

“The latest Egypt PMI data showed that the non-oil private sector’s anticipated recovery is unlikely to be without its setbacks in 2025. With the Egyptian pound deteriorating against the US dollar, breaching the 50-per-dollar mark in early December, businesses reported higher prices and a slump in demand, leading to the fastest decline in operating conditions since last April,” said Owen. 

He added: “The downturn meant that firms were less keen to raise their own charges in the face of accelerating cost burdens, instead tightening their margins in a bid to salvage orders.” 

Egyptian businesses expressed improved optimism toward the end of 2024, anticipating better domestic and geopolitical conditions in 2025. However, inflationary concerns remained a significant headwind for many firms. 

Kuwait’s non-oil sector continues growth momentum 

In another report, S&P Global said Kuwait’s PMI stood at 54.1 in December, marginally down from 55.9 in November but still above the neutral 50 mark. 

The survey suggested that the PMI reading signaled a solid improvement in business conditions and the third-strongest since September 2018. 

The analysis added that companies operating in Kuwait’s non-energy sector posted a further rapid increase in new orders in December. 

“Kuwait’s private sector backed up November’s strong performance with further rapid growth in the final month of 2024. Rates of increase in new orders and output were only slightly slower than those seen in the previous month,” said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

He added: “Alongside advertising and competitive pricing — the twin engines of growth we have seen for some time now — firms also highlighted the positive impact of visitors arriving for the Arabian Gulf Cup.” 

According to the report, companies in Kuwait increased employment for the third consecutive month in response to rising workloads. However, the hiring in December was only marginal, having weakened slightly from November. 

Survey participants expressed strong optimism for business conditions for the next year, driven by expected improvements in economic conditions. 

“One slight setback in the non-oil private sector in December was that employment rose only marginally, thereby contributing to a further accumulation of outstanding business. Firms will hopefully find it easier to hire additional staff in 2025 to help them take advantage of the growth opportunities on offer,” added Harker. 


What MENA’s wild 2025 funding cycle really revealed  

Updated 26 December 2025
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What MENA’s wild 2025 funding cycle really revealed  

RIYADH: The Middle East and North Africa startup funding story in 2025 was less a smooth arc than a sequence of sharp gears: debt-led surges, equity-led recoveries, and periodic quiet spells that revealed what investors were really underwriting.   

By November, the region had logged repeated bursts of activity — culminating in September’s $3.5 billion spike across 74 deals — yet the year’s defining feature was not just the size of the peaks, but the way capital repeatedly clustered around a handful of markets, instruments, and business models.  

Across the year’s first eleven months, funding totals swung dramatically: January opened at $863 million across 63 rounds but was overwhelmingly debt-driven; June fell to just $52 million across 37 deals; and September reset expectations entirely with a record month powered by Saudi fintech mega facilities.   

The net result was a market that looked expansive in headline value while behaving conservatively in underlying risk posture — often choosing structured financing, revenue-linked models, and geographic familiarity over broad-based, late-stage equity appetite.  

Debt becomes the ecosystem’s shock absorber  

If 2024 was about proving demand, 2025 was about choosing capital structure. Debt financing repeatedly dictated monthly outcomes and, in practice, became the mechanism that let large platforms keep scaling while equity investors stayed selective.  

Founded in 2019 by Osama Alraee and Mohamed Jawabri, Lendo is a crowdlending marketplace that connects qualified businesses seeking financing with investors looking for short-term returns. Supplied

January’s apparent boom was the clearest example: $863 million raised, but $768 million came through debt financing, making the equity picture almost similar to January 2024.   

The same pattern returned at larger scale in September, when $3.5 billion was recorded, but $2.6 billion of that total was debt financing — dominated by Tamara’s $2.4 billion debt facility alongside Lendo’s $50 million debt and Erad’s $33 million debt financing.    

October then reinforced the playbook: four debt deals accounted for 72 percent of the month’s $784.9 million, led by Property Finder’s $525 million debt round.    

By November, more than half the month’s $227.8 million total again hinged on a single debt-backed transaction from Erad.   

Tamara was founded in 2020 by Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah, and Abdulmohsen Albabtain, and offers buy-now-pay-later services. Supplied

This isn’t simply ‘debt replacing equity.’ It is debt acting as a stabilizer in a valuation-reset environment: late-stage businesses with predictable cash flows or asset-heavy models can keep expanding without reopening price discovery through equity rounds.  

A two-speed geography consolidates around the Gulf  

The regional map of venture capital in 2025 narrowed, widened, then narrowed again — but the center of gravity stayed stubbornly Gulf-led.    

Saudi Arabia and the UAE alternated at the top depending on where mega deals landed, while Egypt’s position fluctuated between brief rebounds and extended softness.  

In the first half alone, total investment reached $2.1 billion across 334 deals, with Saudi Arabia accounting for roughly 64 percent of capital deployed.   

Saudi Arabia’s rise was described as ‘policy-driven,’ supported by sovereign wealth fund-backed VC activity and government incentives, with domestic firms such as STV, Wa’ed Ventures, and Raed Ventures repeatedly cited as drivers.   

Erad co-founders (left to right): Faris Yaghmour, Youssef Said, Salem Abu Hammour, and Abdulmalik Almeheini. Supplied

The UAE still posted steady growth in the first half — $541 million across 114 startups, up 18 percent year-on-year — but it increasingly competed in a market where the largest single cheques were landing elsewhere unless the Emirates hosted the region’s next debt mega round.  

The concentration became stark in late-year snapshots. In November, funding was ‘tightly concentrated in just five countries,’ with Saudi Arabia taking $176.3 million across 14 deals and the UAE $49 million across 14 deals, while Egypt and Morocco each sat near $1 million and Oman had one undisclosed deal.    

Even in September’s record month, the top two markets — Saudi with $2.7 billion across 25 startups and the UAE with $704.3 million across 26 startups — absorbed the overwhelming majority of capital.  

A smaller but notable subplot was the emergence of ‘surprise’ markets when a single deal was large enough to change rank order.   

Iraq briefly climbed to third place in July on InstaBank’s $15 million deal, while Tunisia entered the top three in June entirely via Kumulus’ $3.5 million seed round.   

These moments mattered less for the totals than for what they suggested: capital can travel, but it still needs an anchor deal to justify attention.  

Events, narrative cycles, and the ‘conference effect’  

2025 also showed how regional deal flow can bunch around events that create permission structures for announcements.   

February’s surge — $494 million across 58 deals — was explicitly linked to LEAP 2025, where ‘many startups announced their closed deals,’ helping push Saudi Arabia to $250.3 million across 25 deals.  

September’s leap similarly leaned on Money20/20, where 15 deals were announced and Saudi fintechs dominated the headlines.  

This ‘conference effect’ does not mean deals are created at conferences, but it does change the timing and visibility of closes.   

Sector leadership rotates, but utility wins  

Fintech retained structural dominance even when it temporarily lost the top spot by value.   

It led January on the back of Saudi debt deals; dominated February with $274 million across 15 deals; remained first in March with $82.5 million across 10 deals; topped the second quarter by capital raised; and reclaimed leadership in November with $142.9 million across nine deals — again driven by a debt-heavy transaction.   

Even when fintech fell to ninth place by value in October with $12.5 million across seven rounds, it still remained ‘the most active sector by deal count,’ a sign of persistent baseline demand.  

Proptech was the year’s other headline sector, but its peaks were deal-specific. Nawy’s $75 million round in May helped propel Egypt to the top that month and pushed proptech up the rankings.   

Property Finder’s debt round in October made proptech the month’s top-funded sector at $526 million. In August, proptech led with $96 million across four deals, suggesting sustained investor appetite for real-estate innovation even beyond the megadeal.   

Outside fintech and proptech, the year offered signals rather than dominance. July saw deeptech top the sector charts with $250.3 million across four deals, reflecting a moment of investor appetite for IP-heavy ventures.   

AI repeatedly appeared as a strategic narrative — especially after a high-profile visit by US President Donald Trump alongside Silicon Valley investors and subsequent GCC AI initiatives — yet funding didn’t fully match the rhetoric in May, when AI secured just $25 million across two deals.   

By late year, however, expectations were already shifting toward mega rounds in AI and the industries built around it, positioning 2025 as a runway-building year rather than a breakout year for AI funding in the region.  

Stage discipline returns as valuations reset  

In 2025, MENA’s funding landscape tried to balance two priorities: sustaining early-stage momentum while selectively backing proven scale. Early-stage rounds dominated deal flow. October saw 32 early-stage deals worth $95.2 million, with just one series B at $50 million. November recorded no later-stage rounds at all, while even September’s record month relied on 55 early-stage startups raising $129.4 million.  

When investors did commit to later stages, the cheques were decisive. February featured Tabby’s $160 million series E alongside two $28 million series B rounds, while August leaned toward scale with $112 million across three series B deals. Late-stage equity was not absent — it was episodic, appearing only when scale economics were defensible. 

Hosam Arab, CEO of Tabby. File

B2B models remained the default. In the first half, B2B startups raised $1.5 billion, or 70 percent of total funding, driven by clearer monetisation and revenue visibility.  

The gender gap remained structural. Despite isolated spikes, capital allocation continued to overwhelmingly favour male-led startups.  

What 2025 actually said about 2026  

Taken together, 2025 looked like a year of capital market pragmatism. The region demonstrated capacity for outsized rounds, but much of that capacity ran through debt, a handful of megadeals, and a narrow set of markets — primarily Saudi Arabia and the UAE.   

Early-stage deal flow stayed active enough to keep the pipeline moving, even as growth-stage equity became intermittent and increasingly selective.   

By year-end, the slowdown seen in November read less like a breakdown than a deliberate pause: a market in consolidation mode preserving firepower, waiting for clearer valuation anchors and the next wave of platform-scale opportunities.   

If 2025 was about proving the region can absorb large cheques, 2026 is shaping up to test where those cheques will go — especially as expectations build around AI-led mega rounds and the industries that will form around them.