Assad’s fall shows Russian military limited by Ukraine offensive

Vladyslav Tsukurov, judge and spokesperson of Bila Tserkva district court, observes the sky during a combat shift of his air defence volunteer unit, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv region, Ukraine November 30, 2024. (REUTERS)
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Updated 10 December 2024
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Assad’s fall shows Russian military limited by Ukraine offensive

  • Moscow’s inability to keep Assad in power suggests it is consumed with the Ukraine conflict, it said, “taxing Russia’s resources and capabilities, raising questions about the sustainability of its ongoing offensive in Ukraine”

MOSCOW: The collapse of Moscow ally Bashar Assad’s Syrian government has dealt a major blow to Russia’s image of global strength and laid bare the limits of its military reach as its Ukraine offensive drags on.
Moscow helped keep Assad in power when it intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015, but with its troops and firepower now concentrated on Ukraine, its ability to protect the iron-fisted ruler this time was limited.
Rebels swept into the capital Damascus after a lightning offensive that took less than two weeks to topple the regime and send Assad fleeing, with Russian news agencies reporting he had been granted asylum in Moscow.




In this file pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) meets with Syria's President Bashar al-Assad at the Kremlin in Moscow on July 24, 2024. (AFP)

It is now unclear if Russia can maintain control of its Mediterranean naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus or its air base in Hmeimim, threatening to dislodge Moscow’s strategic military presence in the region.
“Moscow does not have sufficient military forces, resources, influence and authority to intervene effectively by force outside the former Soviet Union,” analyst Ruslan Pukhov said in an opinion piece for the Russian daily Kommersant.
This became even more evident after 2022, with the outbreak of Moscow’s “protracted” offensive in Ukraine depleting Russia’s military capabilities, he said.
Days after rebel groups launched their offensive against Assad in late November, Russia announced it was responding with air strikes, helping the Syrian army in three northern provinces.
But it was clear that the intervention was limited.
“Attempts to maintain (Assad) would have ended in failure anyway. Russia has other priorities now, and resources are not infinite,” political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov told AFP.
The Kremlin said it was “surprised” by the sheer speed of the rebel attack.
Russia had invested huge financial resources in the country after helping Assad ward off rebel forces with deadly air strikes and devastating bombing campaigns in the latter half of the war.
It is now having to conduct “negotiations” with the same rebel groups it was targeting to secure the safety of its citizens and embassy staff, according to Russian spy chief Sergei Naryshkin.
“This is now the main goal — to ensure the safety of our people,” he told reporters on Monday.

Further aggravating matters, Russia faces the “most likely” prospect of having to withdraw from its military bases in the country, Lukyanov said.
The Russian naval base at Tartus allows it to sail warships directly into the Mediterranean Sea, while its air base at Hmeimim gives it quick access to skies above swathes of the Middle East.
These bases in Syria “play a role in Russia’s efforts to project power not only inside Syria but in the broader region, including in Libya, Sudan, and other parts of Africa,” the New York-based Soufan Center global security analysts said in a note.
If Russia loses this warm-water naval base and air base, it loses its military capabilities in the region and potentially further afield, analysts said.
“The damage to Moscow’s ability to manouevre in Africa and the Mediterranean may have a strategic impact on Russian influence across the world,” said R. Clarke Cooper, research fellow at the Atlantic Council tink tank.
After Assad was ousted, military bloggers in Moscow reacted with shock and dismay.
“I will not grieve for Syria any more than I would grieve for Izyum, Kherson or Kyiv,” Russian war correspondent Alexander Kots wrote on Telegram, referring to Ukrainian cities that Moscow retreated from during its nearly three-year offensive.
“The image of our country will depend entirely on the results of the Special Military Operation, (which is) more important than anything else at the moment,” he said, using the Kremlin’s term for the offensive.
But the fall of Assad, one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest allies, could weaken Moscow’s hand in any future negotiations on the Ukraine conflict, according to the Soufan Center.
Moscow’s inability to keep Assad in power suggests it is consumed with the Ukraine conflict, it said, “taxing Russia’s resources and capabilities, raising questions about the sustainability of its ongoing offensive in Ukraine.”

 


DR Congo city residents forced to adapt during year of M23 rule

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DR Congo city residents forced to adapt during year of M23 rule

  • Around one million Goma residents were holed up in their homes on Jan. 26, 2025, when the Congolese army and its allies were forced to pull out of the provincial capital
GOMA, DR Congo: They were caught under a barrage of fire and became trapped with “nowhere to go” after their city in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo fell under the M23 armed group’s control a year ago.
Around one million Goma residents were holed up in their homes on January 26, 2025, when the Congolese army and its allies were forced to pull out of the provincial capital.
Hundreds of Rwandan soldiers had just poured across the border to fight alongside the M23 in a lightning offensive to seize the lakeside city.
Thousands of people were killed in the intense clashes.
Janvier Kamundu, whose name has been changed for security reasons, was sheltering from the fighting at home with his wife and children.
“Suddenly I heard my wife cry out. She fell, hit by a stray bullet,” he recalled.
Neighbors braved the gunfire to come and help, and a vehicle was found to transport his wife to hospital, ultimately saving her life.
Hospitals were overwhelmed with the wounded and bodies covered in white bags piled up at the morgues.
“She is slowly recovering, but it isn’t easy — she has a lot of wounds around her stomach,” Kamundu said.
Oppressive quiet
A year on, Goma residents endure “constant oppression” by the M23 group, government spokesman Patrick Muyaya said.
In the weeks that followed its capture, the streets emptied out at nightfall and the buzz evaporated from the bars that had once offered some respite in a region scarred by three decades of conflict.
Escaped prisoners, militia fighters and soldiers who had evaded capture roamed the city after dark, breaking into homes and threatening residents.
With the police and court system no longer functioning, the M23 eventually began to systematically cordon off neighborhoods in search of criminals.
By late May, several hundred men were sitting on the dark volcanic gravel covering the streets of Murambi village on Goma’s northern outskirts, watched over by members of the M23.
Local leaders and families are ordered to identify those they recognize as upstanding citizens. The others are detained.
Rough justice
But on the street, anyone deemed suspicious looking drew the M23’s ire.
People spoke of those who had been hauled off to the city sports stadium serving as an open-air prison for wearing dirty clothes or having an untidy beard.
An M23 spokesman invited reporters on several occasions to view the results of the operation — detainees separated into categories.
Desperate families crowded at the entrance, pleading to get their relatives released.
Those not cleared by testimony deemed reliable ended up at secret detention sites. NGO reports denounced torture and summary executions.
But, in time, residents and observers agreed that Goma’s streets were returning to relative safety.
With no independent justice system in place, opponents of the M23 faced repression, some accused of being in cahoots with the pro-government militia.
In October, the armed group — whose declared aim is to overthrow the government and end corruption — began appointing magistrates, but observers indicated there was little impartiality.
Despite parallel peace efforts backed by the United States and Qatar, the M23 launched a new offensive on the strategic town of Uvira near the Burundi border in December.
“These events have shown that the Rwandan president is not at all comfortable with peace processes,” Muyaya, the government spokesman, said.
‘Ideological training’
Most civil society representatives and rights campaigners had fled Goma before the M23 entered.
Civilians and former government combatants were forcibly recruited by the M23, which announced it had 7,000 new members in its ranks in September.
At the same time, the group began to impose taxes to finance its war effort but the city, already on its knees, has had no functioning banks for a year after the government ordered their closure to cut off the rebellion’s funding.
The airport remains inaccessible and trade between Goma and areas under government control has dwindled.
Civil servants were among the first to feel the blow of such cuts.
“There were about 200 agents here; around 20 left to work” in government-held areas, urban planning officer Claude Mumbere said.
“The others are here doing nothing,” added the officer, whose name has also been modified for security reasons.
Some had to undergo “ideological training” provided by the M23.
Mother-of-three Madeleine Mubuto’s husband lost his job.
“We had set aside a small amount of money at home that helped us at first, but after a year almost all of it is used up,” she said.
In the absence of cash, Rwanda’s currency is now used at Goma’s markets.
“Many are wondering how long this situation is going to last,” Kamundu said, adding: “We adapt because we have nowhere to go.”