Unfolding conflicts add to fears of a major confrontation
https://arab.news/vqaxx
In the 1980s, there was a renowned trio of French comedians known as Les Inconnus. Among their sketches was one in which a member of the group portrayed a solemn and seemingly erudite geopolitical TV expert analyzing Middle East affairs, particularly the situation in Lebanon. In a short clip, he would delve into the complexities of Lebanon’s political landscape, describing an intricate web of never-ending militias and alliances that rendered the situation impossible to comprehend. The sketch provided a symbolic and comedic commentary on the bewildering nature of the conflict in Lebanon at the time.
Fast forward to today, and the situation in Syria, or northern Syria to be precise, is even more complicated. Indeed, in early October, Turkish forces conducted overnight attacks in northern Syria, killing 58 Kurdish militants, according to the defense ministry. This escalation in conflict followed a bomb attack in Ankara, for which the Kurdistan Workers Party claimed responsibility, leading Turkiye to declare both the PKK and the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia as “legitimate targets.”
Turkiye has been conducting airstrikes and ground-based attacks against militant targets in northern Syria and Iraq, while increasing security operations domestically. These actions, as well as a recent incident in which a Turkish drone was shot down by US forces near its troops in Syria, have raised tensions with Washington. The PKK is recognized as a terrorist organization by both Turkiye and the US. However, the status of the YPG remains a point of contention between Ankara and its Western allies.
Amid this turmoil, the Assad regime, backed by Russia, conducted attacks in opposition-held areas of northwest Syria, killing at least 11 people and injuring 78 others. These attacks, involving bombing and shelling, affected several areas, with most of the casualties reported in and around Idlib city. The regime’s actions were seen as a violent response to an earlier attack on the Homs Military Academy, which led to the killing of troops and bystanders shortly after the defense minister had left a graduation ceremony.
While the US government is cautious about escalating tensions, the situation is seen as precarious
Khaled Abou Zahr
Simultaneously, militias backed by Iran also intensified their attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq, raising concerns of a potential regional conflict, especially when taking into account the situation in Gaza. These attacks, directly controlled by Tehran, have resulted in injuries to US soldiers and civilian casualties, prompting Washington to deploy anti-missile systems to protect its bases and allies in the region. While the US government is cautious about escalating tensions, the situation is seen as precarious, and Iran appears to be testing the boundaries. In response, President Joe Biden deployed aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean and urged Israel to delay a ground invasion of Gaza.
The Israel-Hamas conflict, along with Iranian-supported groups threatening US bases and the presence of Iran-backed militias near the Golan Heights, adds to the growing regional instability. It is interesting to note that Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad leaders convened in Beirut to express solidarity in achieving “a real victory for the resistance in Gaza and Palestine.” The situation carries a high risk of further escalation and underscores the volatile dynamics in the region.
In response to these attacks and adding to this complex web of events, the US military has conducted airstrikes on two locations in eastern Syria connected to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, marking a new American willingness to engage directly in the Middle East crisis. These strikes, targeting weapons and ammunition storage facilities used by the IRGC and its supported militias, were in response to recent attacks on US facilities in Iraq and Syria by Iran-backed groups, which resulted in injuries to US servicemen and civilian casualties. The US is clearly looking to deter further attacks, even though there is a risk of escalation. Tensions in the region have increased as Iran’s proxies have become more active, potentially leading to a broader regional conflict. The US is trying to strike a balance between responding to aggression and avoiding inflaming the situation further.
The US and Turkiye, both long-standing allies, find themselves at odds in their approach to northern Syria
Khaled Abou Zahr
Against this backdrop of escalating conflicts, earlier this week, the UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, warned that the lack of a meaningful political process in Syria has led to growing instability and violence, making the situation highly dangerous. He mentioned that Syria faces the alarming possibility of a wider escalation in violence, especially since the Oct. 7 terror attacks by Hamas, which has already led to spillover into Syria. The country has experienced an upsurge in violence, resulting in civilian casualties, injuries, and infrastructure damage, with various groups and foreign armies remaining active in the conflict.
One strange, but revealing, aspect of today’s world is the fact that the US and Turkiye, both long-standing allies and NATO members, find themselves at odds in their approach to northern Syria. Despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s anti-Israeli speech, there is no doubt that if the situation spirals out of control, these differences will be set aside.
This, however, contributes to the unfolding events in Gaza, Syria, Iraq, and beyond, reaching a point where a true expert, rather than a comedian, will deliver a tragi-comedic narrative. The risk of all these conflicts converging into a single confrontation are real. Yet, for now, most belligerents are focusing on measured actions and looking to distract or take advantage of their enemies’ focus on more immediate concerns. Testing the red lines of rules of engagements in never-ending confrontations has become an art in this region.
• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
