As climate change makes disasters such as cyclones, floods and droughts more intense, more frequent and striking more places, fewer people are dying from those catastrophes globally because of better warning, planning and resilience, a top United Nations official said.
The world hasn’t really noticed how the type of storms that once killed tens or hundreds of thousands of people now only claim handfuls of lives, new United Nations Assistant Secretary-General Kamal Kishore, who heads the UN’s office for disaster risk reduction told The Associated Press. But he said much more needs to be done to keep these disasters from pushing people into abject poverty.
“Fewer people are dying of disasters and if you look at that as a proportion of total population, it’s even fewer,” Kishore said in his first interview since taking office in mid-May. “We often take for granted the progress that we’ve made.”
“Twenty years ago there was no tsunami early warning system except for one small part of the world. Now the whole world is covered by a tsunami warning system” after the 2004 tsunami that killed about 230,000 people in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand, Kishore said.
People are getting better warnings about tropical cyclones — also called hurricanes and typhoons — so now the chances of dying in a tropical cyclone in a place like the Philippines are about one-third of what they were 20 years ago, Kishore said.
As the former disaster chief for India, Kishore points to how his country has cut deaths thanks to better warnings and community preparedness such as hospitals being ready for a surge in births during a cyclone. In 1999, a supercyclone hit eastern India, killing almost 10,000 people. Then a nearly similar sized storm hit in 2013, but killed only a few dozen people. Last year, on Kishore’s watch, Cyclone Biparjoy killed fewer than 10 people.
The same goes for flood deaths, Kishore said.
The data backs up Kishore, said disaster epidemiologist Debarati Guha-Sapir of the Catholic University of Louvain in Brussels, who created a global disaster database. Her database — which she acknowledges has missing pieces — shows that global deaths per storm event has dropped from about a ten-year average of 24 in 2008 to ten-year average of about 8 in 2021. Flood deaths per event have gone from ten-year averages of nearly 72 to about 31, her data indicates.
While there are fewer deaths globally from disasters, there are still pockets in the poorest of countries, especially in Africa, where deaths are worsening or at least staying the same, Guha-Sapir said. It’s much like public health’s efforts to eradicate measles, success in most places, but areas that can least cope are not improving, she said.
India and Bangladesh are poster nations for better dealing with disasters and preventing deaths, especially in cyclones, Guha-Sapir said. In 1970, a cyclone killed more than 300,000 people in Bangladesh in one of the 20th century’s greatest natural disasters and now “Bangladesh has done fantastic work in disaster risk reduction for years and years and years,” she said.
Pointing out wins is important, Guha-Sapir said: “Gloom and doom will never get us anywhere.”
While countries such as India and Bangladesh have created warning systems, strengthened buildings such as hospitals and know what to do to prepare for and then react to disasters, a lot of it is also just because these countries are getting richer and better educated and so they can handle disasters better and protect themselves, Guha-Sapir said. Poorer countries and people can’t.
“Fewer people are dying, but that’s not because climate change is not happening,” Kishore said ”That is despite the climate change. And that is because we have invested in resilience, invested in early warning systems.”
Kishore said climate change is making his job tougher, yet he said doesn’t feel like Sisyphus, the mythical man pushing a giant boulder up a hill.
“You are getting more intense hazards, more frequently and (in) new geographies,” Kishore said, saying places, like Brazil that used to not worry too much about floods now are getting devastated. The same goes for extreme heat, which he said used to be an issue for only certain countries, but now has gone global, pointing to nearly 60,000 heat wave deaths in Europe in 2022.
India, where temperatures have been flirting with 50° Celsius, has reduced heat deaths with specific regional plans, Kishore said.
“However with the new extreme temperatures we are seeing, every country needs to double its efforts to save lives,” he said. And that means looking at the built environment of cities, he added.
Cutting deaths is only part of the battle to reduce risk, Kishore said.
“We are doing a better job of saving lives but not of livelihoods,” Kishore said.
While fewer people are dying “you look at people who are losing their houses, people who are losing their businesses, a small farmer that is running a poultry farm,” Kishore said. When they get flooded or hit by a storm, they may survive but they’ve got nothing, no seeds, no fishing boats.
“On that we’re not doing as well as we should,” Kishore said. “We cannot accept that losses will occur. Of course they will occur, but they could be minimized by an order of magnitude.”

NEW DELHI: Indians began voting Saturday in the last round of a six-week-long national election that is a referendum on Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decade in power.
The election is considered one of the most consequential in India’s history. If Modi wins, he’ll be only the second Indian leader to retain power for a third term after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister.
The seventh round of voting in 57 constituencies across seven states and one union territory will complete polling for all 543 seats in the powerful lower house of parliament. Nearly 970 million voters — more than 10 percent of the world’s population — were eligible to elect a new parliament for five years. More than 8,300 candidates ran for the office.
Most polls show Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party leading over the broad opposition alliance that’s challenging them, led by the Congress party. The votes will be counted Tuesday, with results expected by the end of the day.
Modi’s campaign, vying for a third-straight term, began on a platform of economic progress. He promised to uplift the poor and turn India into a developed nation by 2047. But it has turned increasingly shrill in recent weeks as he escalated polarizing rhetoric in back-to-back incendiary speeches that targeted the country’s Muslim minority, who make up 14 percent of India’s 1.4 billion people.
On Thursday, after finishing his election campaign, Modi went to meditate at a memorial site honoring a famous Hindu saint who is believed to have attained enlightenment there.
When the election kicked off in April, Modi and his BJP were widely expected to clinch another term.
Since first coming to power in 2014, Modi has enjoyed immense popularity. His supporters see him as a self-made, strong leader who has improved India’s standing in the world, and credit his pro-business policies with making the economy the world’s fifth-largest.
At the same time, his rule has seen brazen attacks and hate speech against minorities, particularly Muslims. India’s democracy, his critics say, is faltering and Modi has increasingly blurred the line between religion and state.
But as the campaign ground on, his party has faced stiff resistance from the opposition alliance and its main face, Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party. They have attacked Modi over his Hindu nationalist politics and are hoping to benefit from growing economic discontent.
Pre-poll surveys showed that voters were increasingly worried about unemployment, the rise in food prices and an overall sentiment that only a small portion of Indians have benefitted despite brisk economic growth under Modi, making the contest appear closer than initially anticipated.
In this election, Modi’s BJP — which controls much of India’s Hindi-speaking northern and central parts — sought to expand their influence by making inroads into the country’s eastern and southern states, where regional parties hold greater sway.
The BJP also banked on consolidating votes among the Hindu majority, who make up 80 percent of the population, after Modi opened a long-demanded Hindu temple on the site of a razed mosque in January. Many saw it as the unofficial start of his campaign, but analysts said the excitement over the temple may not be enough to yield votes.
Instead, Modi ramped up anti-Muslim rhetoric after voter turnout dipped slightly below 2019 figures in the first few rounds of the 2024 polls.
This was seen as a tactic to energize his core Hindu voter base. But analysts say it also reflected the lack of any big-ticket national issue to help Modi propel his BJP to electoral victory, as he has done previously.
In 2014, Modi’s status as a political outsider cracking down on deep-rooted corruption won over voters disillusioned with decades of dynastic politics. And in 2019, he swept the polls on a wave of nationalism after his government launched airstrikes into rival Pakistan in response to a suicide bombing in Kashmir that killed 40 Indian soldiers.
But things are different this time, analysts say, giving Modi’s political challengers a potential boost.
“The opposition somehow managed to derail his plan by setting the narrative to local issues, like unemployment and the economy. This election, people are voting keeping various issues in mind,” said Rasheed Kidwai, a political analyst.