The increasing threat of insurgency in Pakistan
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Once again, Pakistan is facing an upsurge in insurgency and the most affected are the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant group has a significant following running into a few thousand. Its roots are in Afghanistan and it has spread its influence in KP and Balochistan while openly declaring war against Pakistan. Apart from focusing on Pakistani security forces, it is occupying certain areas in Swat and trying to establish its writ in KP in areas that were formerly part of the tribal belt. It also has a footprint in Balochistan. The audacious move of the TTP to occupy parts of Swat and taking several hostages in Bannu was a stark reminder of their advances in 2007. Operation Rah-e-Haq was launched in 2008 led by both the air force and the army against them. Taliban forces led by Faqir Mohammed came close to occupying Bajaur agency. In response, the Pakistan military launched several operations to defeat and dislodge the TTP.
The TTP’s stated objective is the implementation of a strict interpretation of Islamic law throughout Pakistan. It challenges the state and maintains close liaison with militant organizations working against the state. It is TTP that committed the treacherous attack in which seven heavily armed Taliban fighters stormed an army-run primary and secondary school in Peshawar in December 2014 and murdering 150, out of whom 134 were students. It would be naïve to expect that their mindset and intentions are any different now and that they would reconcile to remain peaceful.
For the political government and the military, it is a dilemma to figure out how to deal with them. These organizations have not grown overnight but over years and to an extent, are a product of the policies that Pakistan pursued in conjunction with the US and on its own, not realizing the long-term impact on their own country. In the immediate and ongoing military operation, it is necessary to clear the strongholds of TTP in KP and Balochistan to be followed up with administrative and other measures to strengthen the resolve of the people to resist and push back against the growing influence of these groups.
The Taliban government is creating conditions that have made Afghanistan an international pariah. Their treatment of women, denying girls their fundamental right to education and imposing the strictest code of conduct has shaken the confidence of their own people.
Talat Masood
The danger that is emanating from Afghanistan apart from TTP has several other strands. The Taliban government is creating conditions that have made Afghanistan an international pariah. Their treatment of women, denying girls their fundamental right to education and imposing the strictest code of conduct has shaken the confidence of their own people. The reality is that the mindset of the Taliban is frozen in time. Moreover, they fear that education and emancipation of women are a threat to male dominance.
Now the question that must be addressed by major Muslim states is whether disengagement would further harm the Afghan people, especially the women, and push the Taliban government into further isolation-- or compel it to revise its policies.
Apparently, it is the highly conservative Kandahar leadership that formulates and dominates policies and does not allow dissent. They are prepared to undergo extreme hardship and international isolation but will not give up on their dogmatic and outdated policies. The Taliban government has failed to uphold Afghanistan’s international legal and universally accepted human rights obligations. By creating an environment where safety and freedom of movement is extremely restricted, they have discouraged foreign assistance.
The fallout of these policies poses a serious challenge to Pakistan and also to the central Asian states and adjoining provinces of China. The Taliban victory in Afghanistan has been a source of great encouragement to militant groups especially the TTP and certain Baloch insurgent groups. For Pakistan, the most troubling aspect is the protection and close relationship between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP. Despite Pakistan being one of the countries with the most leverage over Afghanistan, it has until recently been ignoring its demand to exercise strict control over TTP.
It is not surprising that China has imposed strict border control and is wary that there could be a spillover effect in adjoining regions. Pakistan, despite serious efforts, has been unable to effectively establish its control along its western border. It is the close relationship with Afghanistan, the long border and extensive traffic that prevents Pakistan from exercising stricter control.
The government in coordination with the army leadership is taking kinetic measures against the TTP while also exploring prospects for engagement with its leadership. So far, the TTP has been placing inflated demands that compromise the sovereignty of the state, and compelling the government to take sterner measures.
- Talat Masood is a retired Lieutenant General from Pakistan Army and an eminent scholar on national security and political issues.
