Pakistan’s relationship with Russia: Back to square one
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Pakistan’s foreign policy has been determined by a plethora of factors including its ideological foundations, its geopolitical imperatives and the personal demeanor of the country’s civil and military elites. Pakistan’s engagement towards Russia and the ups and downs in the bilateral relationship need to be seen through this rather multi-dimensional prism incorporating both systemic and domestic factors.
Pakistan’s engagement with the Soviet Union started on a positive note as it supported the new state’s ascension to the United Nations. As the United States invited Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru for a state visit and ignored Pakistan, Soviet Union extended a similar invitation to Pakistani Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan. However, once the US officially invited the Pakistani premier for a state visit, Liaquat Ali accepted this invitation and dropped his plans to travel to Moscow. This trip determined very much the future trajectory of Pakistan’s foreign policy and led to Pakistan’s comprehensive alignment with Washington. This political engagement was further institutionalized as Pakistan became a member of two western led security alliances, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) in 1954 and Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) in 1955.
There were brief moments of rapprochement between the two sides, once in 1965 as Pakistani President Ayub Khan visited the Soviet Union on an official visit and later one under the premiership of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto whose emphasis on bilateralism helped broker an engagement with the Soviets. During his premiership, the Soviet Union financed and built Pakistan’s first and only Steel Mills. However, the removal of PM Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in a coup d'état by the military and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 decisively put Pakistan in the American camp. Pakistan emerged as a frontline state in the struggle against communism and became base camp for the Afghan war.
After the cold war, although there was political engagement between the two sides, differences on Afghanistan and Russian proximity with India of whom it was the largest defence partner hampered attempts to normalize the bilateral relationship.
The bilateral relationship started to gradually warm up after 2010 as both countries’ views on regional security started to align and Pakistan’s military initiated a charm offensive towards Russia. The Pakistan Army Chief’s visit to Moscow in 2012, a first in nearly 44 years was a notable development in this regard indeed. In 2014, eventually Russia lifted an arms embargo on Pakistan followed by an agreement in 2015 on the sale of four Mi-35M attack helicopters. This helicopter acquisition highlighted the growing degree of defence engagement between the two sides. On the geopolitical front, after decades of divergence, both sides also started to converge on their views about Afghanistan. A shared willingness to engage with the Taliban and a Russian admission regarding Pakistan’s indispensability for peaceful political settlement of the Afghan conundrum further brought the two sides close. Pakistan-Russia ties in the defence domain reached new heights as both militaries signed a Military Cooperation Pact in 2018 in a first meeting of Pakistan-Russia Joint Military Consultative Committee (JMCC). The military cooperation agreement opened the way for Pakistani troops to receive training in Russian Defence Institutes and for joint military exercises by different military units of both sides. These developments were concomitant with the gradual deterioration of Pak-US ties.
After the cold war, although there was political engagement between the two sides, differences on Afghanistan and Russian proximity with India, of whom it was the largest defense partner, hampered attempts to normalize the bilateral relationship.
Umar Karim
Pakistan’s relationship with the US got further strained after the American departure from Afghanistan. As the US-Pakistan relationship was pushed to breaking point, Russia invited the Pakistani PM for a visit to Moscow. Finally, over a decade of lobbying and engagement by Pakistan’s military and diplomatic circles to woo Russia and to become partners with its defence-military complex, was successful.
Yet the geopolitical calculus was swiftly reversed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The initiation of hostilities right on the eve of Khan’s visit didn’t bode well for Pakistan and put the country in the global limelight. Pakistan also received strong warnings from western nations regarding the political costs of the visit. Furthermore, Pakistan’s military after observing the disastrous performance of the Russian Armed Forces and equipment on the battlefield started to revisit its excitement about Russian defence equipment and if it would be able to put Pakistan at par militarily with India. The condemnation of the Russian invasion by Pakistan’s Army Chief clearly hinted towards this.
With the removal of Imran Khan from the premiership, the new Pakistani government has effectively taken an about turn on its Russia policy. It has participated in a global summit regarding the negative implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has shelved any plans to buy oil or wheat from Russia and clearly has tried to re-engage western partners which have invariably adopted an aggressive stance on Russia. This suggests that the moment of romance between Pakistan and Russia epitomized by Imran Khan’s Moscow visit has effectively ended. Any new attempt at normalization with Russia will now remain conditional to Khan’s return to power.
– Umar Karim is a doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham. His research focuses on the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s strategic outlook, the Saudi-Iran tussle, conflict in Syria, and the geopolitics of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan.
Twitter: @UmarKarim89