As Iran’s nuclear imbroglio heightens, the world seems not to care
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Iran has progressively advanced its nuclear program without exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Moreover, Tehran's turning off the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) cameras until a 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is restored, has alarmed the anti-proliferation community, who have been struggling to prevent a nuclear arms race in the region.
Instead of satisfying IAEA- the UN nuclear watchdog- over the uranium traces found at three undeclared sites, Iran announced the commencement of enriching uranium up to 20% purity using sophisticated centrifuges at its underground Fordow nuclear plant on July 10. As a result, senior Iranian official Kamal Kharrazi claimed that Iran had "the technical capability to build a nuclear bomb." Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA, authenticated Kharrazi's claim by proclaiming that Iran's nuclear program is "galloping ahead," and the Agency had minimal visibility of what was happening.
The most challenging part of producing nuclear weapons is making the fissile material—highly enriched uranium or plutonium- to fuel them. Over two decades, the Iranian nuclear imbroglio reveals that Iran has struggled to produce weapons-grade uranium.
Scientifically speaking, having the infrastructure and know-how to enrich uranium up to 20% underscores that Iran is technically skilled in producing nuclear fissile material or weapon-grade enriched uranium most desirable for nuclear weapons. The production of high enriched uranium and noncompliance with the IAEA testifies that the country is engaged in the process of nuclear weapons development. Another factor that exposes Iran's nuclear weapons ambition is Tehran's steady upgrading and testing of long-range ballistic missiles.
Weapon-grade uranium production is not permitted to non-nuclear weapon states party to the NPT. Iran is shielding its noncompliance with the IAEA under the pretext of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, which was signed by the United States, Iran, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany to prevent Tehran from acquiring weapons-grade fissile material capability in 2015. The agreement placed significant restrictions on Iran's nuclear program to relieve many international sanctions. For instance, for 15 years, Iran refrained from enrichment at Fordow and limited its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to 300 kg at a maximum enrichment level of 3.67%.
Last month’s revelations about Iran’s uranium enrichment and non-cooperation with the IAEA vindicate the Trump administration's mistrust over the Iranians' commitment to the JCPOA, resulting in the United States' withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018 and the reimposition of sanctions against Tehran.
The American exit from JCPOA and the Iranians' refusal to continue adhering to the agreement, despite other members' desperate efforts to keep the deal viable, did not free Iran from its NPT’s legal obligations. Being a member of the NPT, it is Tehran's responsibility to keep nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards. Besides, it is only permitted to produce low-enriched Uranium for power generation, agricultural and medical treatment.
Nuclear weapons added to Iran’s military arsenal could trigger neighboring states to also exit the NPT and develop their own weapons. This is why the Middle East and North Africa are at the threshold of a devastating atomic arms race.
Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Iran's latent nuclear capacity to build its nuclear deterrent has encouraged other regional states to develop nuclear weapons. These predictable responses by Iran’s neighbors reinforce its neighbors' fears and make them feel less secure all over again, tightening the spiral further and heightening the risk of war.
Nuclear weapons added to Iran’s military arsenal could trigger neighboring states to also exit the NPT and develop their own weapons. This is why the Middle East and North Africa are at the threshold of a devastating atomic arms race.
The probability of the nuclear arms race in the MENA persuades the international community to pressgang Tehran to honor NPT’s obligations. However, Iran’s nuclear program is encountering ineffective international opposition due to the changed global geopolitics in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Iran is the primary beneficiary of these changes because Russia and China are cajoling it for their diplomatic, economic, and military interests. Tehran appears a key node in a Eurasian transport corridor that would help Russia and China evade US and European sanctions. Besides, Russians expressed interest in purchasing Iranian Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 combat drones, also known as UAVs or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, capable of carrying precision-guided missiles. Therefore, any move in the United Nations Security Council against Iran on the violation of NPT will be vetoed by China and Russia.
In summary, a condemnation by the UN Security Council regarding Iran's noncompliance with NPT is not expected. And fully aware of this absence of a strong international reaction, Tehran has restarted the high enrichment of uranium, causing great frustration among nuclear non-proliferationists-- and for good reason.
- Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University. E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: @zafar_jaspal
