The crisis in Punjab puts Pakistan in peril
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Punjab province is half of Pakistan – by population, share in national revenue and resources and influence over how the country fares. Which is why if a near-bankrupt Pakistan is a political mess right now, its largest province of 110 million people is the kinetic chaos at the heart of this trouble. It is not just the poor state of the economy but also gross mismanagement fundamentals such as politics and governance that has thrown up the worst constitutional crisis Punjab has seen in decades.
Punjab has had its youngest chief minister – Hamza Shahbaz, the son of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif – for a month now but no full cabinet because coalition allies propping his government that do not even have a majority in the provincial legislature want their cut, as do competing factions within his own party. He can’t satisfy them all without losing his grip on power.
And that’s not even half of it. Hamza’s election was controversial and is being contested in court as he was not even sworn in for a whole month as the provincial governor, a member of rival Imran Khan’s party, refused to deem him elected and swear him into office. He had to be elected by the speaker of the National Assembly on court orders which are now being challenged in another court.
On top of that, Hamza had to present the legally mandatory annual provincial budget that the speaker of Punjab Assembly, Pervaiz Elahi, a vociferous rival of Hamza who he contested against for the slot of chief minister and whose party has just five legislators but seeks to rule Punjab, refuses to allow the government to do so. Resultantly, last week the governor issued a temporary law temporarily taking powers away from Elahi to convene the assembly session in a private property to present the budget. This is unprecedented and has been promptly challenged in the high court as well.
Political polarization is at its peak and worsening political confrontation between the ruling PML-N party of Sharif-Hamza father-son duo and PTI, the party of angry Imran Khan, ousted from power after high drama two months ago, has crippled governance.
Technically, Punjab has a government but functionally it does not.
Adnan Rehmat
The party of Khan, ousted from the federal government, remains in play in Punjab even though no longer in office. PTI has successfully thwarted attempts by Hamza to fully form his cabinet – including representation for rebel members of PTI. This is because the 25 members who rebelled against Khan’s aide Usman Buzdar as chief minister and voted for Hamza to take his place, have been de-seated from Punjab Assembly by the Election Commission for floor crossing.
This effectively means Hamza may be able to pass the budget by available razor-thin simple majority of only two votes, but he can be asked by a critical mass of PTI’s remaining members to take a vote of no-confidence which he will fail because in the absence of 25 de-seated members, he does not have a simple majority of total membership of the legislature.
To muster a majority, Hamza’s PML-N will have to win at least half the seats in the by-elections for the 25 seats vacated by the disqualified PTI members. The fact that the by-elections are scheduled for July 17 means that until then Hamza is in limbo – open to disqualification himself by the courts under a slew of legal contestations. And until then his cabinet is incomplete and he is ruling merely through executive fiats which are themselves open to challenge in courts.
Technically, Punjab has a government but functionally it does not. If the courts rule against the legality of Hamza’s government, he and his dispensation will have to go, and fresh elections called. Holding elections for the 371 seats of Punjab Assembly will trigger the irrelevancy of National Assembly and in all probability national and provincial elections will have to be called all over the country. This will be the end of the federal government also.
In effect, there is a constitutional crisis of sorts that threatens not just Punjab but also the country in a crippling political and governance shutdown when Pakistan is hovering close to technical bankruptcy. This hurts not just the Pakistani political federation but also prospects of participatory democracy, thereby leaving the military to be tempted to step in.
As a non-political neutral actor independent of the executive and guardian of constitutional supremacy, the superior judiciary may step into the fray and warn of adverse action against anyone not allowing the Punjab Assembly and government to operate normally or crippling governance into dysfunction. For now, the jury is out.
— Adnan Rehmat is a Pakistan-based journalist, researcher and analyst with interests in politics, media, development and science.
Twitter: @adnanrehmat1
