Palm oil analyst Mistry urges Indonesia to resume exports immediately

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Updated 26 May 2022
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Palm oil analyst Mistry urges Indonesia to resume exports immediately

  • Farmers in Indonesia were already burdened with higher levies and taxes of $575 per ton compared to their Malaysian counterparts who pay $125 per ton, Mistry said

KUALA LUMPUR: Leading edible oil analyst Dorab Mistry on Thursday urged Indonesia to immediately resume exports of palm oil, warning that a halt in shipments pending details of a domestic sales rule could spell economic “doom” for farmers.

Mistry, director of Indian consumer goods company Godrej International, is a prominent figure in the palm oil industry and his market-moving outlooks are closely watched by traders.

In an open letter to the Indonesian government shared with some international media outlets, Mistry said the world’s biggest palm oil producer and exporter was heading to a “calamitous situation” as inventories had already reached historical highs surpassing seven million tons.

“If unrestricted exports do not start before the end of May we foresee a situation where all storage tanks will be full and the industry will grind to a halt,” he said, adding that Indonesian farmers would bear the brunt of this.

Indonesia reopened exports of crude palm oil and its derivatives from May 23 after a three-week ban on shipments in a bid to curtail runaway cooking oil prices.

But President Joko Widodo reinstated a policy of mandatory local sales at a certain price level, and exporters have held back on shipments as they await details on the latest rules.

Farmers in Indonesia were already burdened with higher levies and taxes of $575 per ton compared to their Malaysian counterparts who pay $125 per ton, Mistry said.

“But now they face the incredible situation of not being able to harvest their fruit and instead will be forced to watch it rot on the trees,” he said.

The losses are “inevitable” and would be seen in early June even if exports commence immediately, exacerbated by the start of a boom in production due to good rainfall, Mistry said.

“The export ban has also forced countries to look at their reliance on Indonesian palm and find ways of making soft oils available at a cheaper price,” he said, citing India’s decision to allow duty-free imports of crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil.

“The combination of historical record stocks, full storage tanks, boom cycle in production, poor demand, and restricted exports spells almost certain doom for the Indonesian farmer,” Mistry warned.

He said a “complete economic disaster” for farmers could only be avoided if the government adopted an immediate unrestricted export policy, which he described as a win-win solution for both farmers and buyers alike.

Indonesian government officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The administration of President Joko Widodo has been focused on trying to bring down the price of cooking oil derived from palm oil in the domestic market. 


Supply chains reel as carriers halt Gulf routes and impose war risk surcharges in response to Iran-US conflict

Updated 11 min 38 sec ago
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Supply chains reel as carriers halt Gulf routes and impose war risk surcharges in response to Iran-US conflict

RIYADH: Global supply chains were disrupted on March 2 as the US-Iran conflict forced shipping lines and airlines to suspend routes, reroute traffic, and impose emergency surcharges across the Middle East.

As traffic slowed through the Strait of Hormuz and airspace restrictions spread across Gulf hubs, logistics providers halted new container bookings and adjusted operations, driving longer transit times, higher freight costs, and greater uncertainty for cargo owners worldwide.

Ship-tracking data cited by Reuters showed a maritime standstill taking shape near the Hormuz chokepoint, with roughly 150 crude and liquefied natural gas tankers anchored in open waters beyond the strait and additional vessels stationary on both sides, clustered near the coasts of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, as well as the UAE and Qatar.

Industry guidance warned of heightened naval activity, anchorage congestion and potential insurance volatility, even as no formal international suspension of commercial shipping had been declared.

Rising tensions in the Gulf forced operational pullbacks, with Reuters reporting at least three tankers damaged and one seafarer killed, prompting shipowners to reassess their exposure in regional waters.

Container carriers acted to limit risk, with MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co. suspending new bookings for Middle East cargo amid security concerns and network uncertainty.

A.P. Moller–Maersk paused sailings through the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb and suspended vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, attributing the move to the worsening security situation following the start of the US-Israeli attack on Iran.

Rival operators began diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, extending voyage times between Asia and Europe and tightening effective capacity. The longer routings are increasing fuel consumption and disrupting equipment repositioning cycles, adding strain to already stretched container availability in key export markets.

Freight costs rose further after Hapag-Lloyd introduced a formal War Risk Surcharge for cargo moving to and from the Upper Gulf, Arabian Gulf and Persian Gulf, citing what it described as the “dynamic situation around the Strait of Hormuz” and associated operational adjustments across its network.

The surcharge, effective March 2 until further notice, is set at $1,500 per twenty-foot equivalent unit for standard containers and $3,500 per unit for reefer containers and special equipment.  

The surcharge will apply to any booking made on or after March 2 that has not yet shipped, as well as cargo already in transit to or from affected Gulf regions. It will be paid by the booking party and excludes shipments regulated by the Federal Maritime Commission or SSE.

France-based shipping group CMA CGM said March 2 it will introduce an “Emergency Conflict Surcharge,” effective immediately, citing escalating security risks in the region. The surcharge will be set at $2,000 per 20-foot dry container, $3,000 per 40-foot dry container, and $4,000 per reefer or special equipment container.  

The measure applies to cargo moving to and from Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait, as well as Yemen, Qatar, Oman, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. It also covers shipments to Jordan, Egypt via the Port of Ain Sokhna, Djibouti, Sudan, and Eritrea, encompassing trade linked to Gulf and Red Sea countries.

On the port side, DP World said operations had resumed at Jebel Ali Port in the UAE following precautionary disruption. The reopening restored activity at the Gulf’s largest transshipment hub, though the broader impact of rerouted vessels, suspended bookings and insurance constraints continues to limit throughput predictability.

Marine insurers added to the strain by issuing notices canceling war-risk cover for vessels operating in Iranian waters and surrounding areas, with changes taking effect on March 5.

The withdrawal of coverage complicates voyage approvals and introduces further pricing volatility for shipowners and charterers considering calls within the region.

Air freight networks have also been affected. Widespread flight cancellations and airspace restrictions across the Middle East disrupted passenger and cargo flows through key hubs, including Dubai.  

FedEx said it had temporarily suspended services in specific Middle East markets, including Bahrain, Israel, and Qatar, as well as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, and halted pickup and delivery services in several Gulf countries due to escalating tensions and airspace closures, affecting time-sensitive shipments across several nations.

Shipping group NORDEN said it has suspended all new business requiring transit through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the escalating security situation in the region, according to a company statement.

Air cargo disruption appears to be significant. Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, a US multinational corporation that focuses on supply chain management and logistics, wrote on X on March 2 that “18 percent of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend,” highlighting the scale of network dislocation as airspace closures and flight cancellations ripple across Gulf hubs.

While the figure has not been independently verified, it underscores the degree to which capacity constraints are tightening for time-sensitive shipments, including pharmaceuticals, electronics and industrial components.

Data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence underscores the scale of disruption to maritime throughput. Daily deadweight tonnage of tankers and gas carriers transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply by March 1, reflecting what industry sources describe as a de facto halt in normal vessel movements.

The combined effect of halted transits, booking suspensions, war-risk pricing measures and air service interruptions is beginning to ripple through global supply chains. Energy exports remain the most immediately exposed given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, but sectors dependent on just-in-time inventory, from manufacturing to retail, are also facing longer lead times and rising logistics costs.

As of March 2, carriers and freight operators were prioritizing crew safety and asset protection while monitoring military developments. The duration of the conflict will determine whether the current disruption remains a short-term operational shock or develops into a prolonged restructuring of trade routes serving the Middle East.