Pakistan’s fateful vote and regional implications
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Five minutes past midnight on April 10 2022, Pakistan’s National Assembly voted out Prime Minister Imran Khan. The PTI did its best to frame the vote as a choice between independent foreign policy or reverting to the orbit of the west. The theme of a foreign conspiracy and regime change seems farfetched. Domestic factors particularly the nature of Pakistan’s constitutional dispensation and political culture were played out in full view of the public.
All political parties are patriotic and dedicated to the welfare of the nation. There were many domestic issues such as inflation, debt and a precarious economy together with mis-governance that contributed to the political upheaval. Khan’s downfall was the result of a motley alliance of the diverse forces cobbled together by circumstances and for the sole purpose of the ousting of his government.
However, viewed in the kaleidoscopic context of the global strategic chess board, the outcome of the vote cannot but be construed as Pakistan traversing back its tentative steps at creating a strategic space for itself by forging equidistant relations in an east-west polarized world.
The political parties arrayed against Khan are all known pro-west entities that for good reasons believe that with its economic vulnerabilities Pakistan can ill afford an antagonistic posture towards the west. The ‘beggars cannot be choosers’ comment by Shehbaz Sharif aptly summed up the dilemma.
Opting for a safe corner is understandable but whether turbulent forces unleashed around will allow Pakistan to prosper in peace is difficult to surmise.
Salman Bashir
Pakistan has opted to once again be in the comfort zone of the west. This has historically been the case. Multiplying dependencies and a dysfunctional governance spread over several decades perhaps left it no choice. In the present circumstances, Pakistan also seems to have opted to give up on its strategic competition with India. All political parties generally and especially the ones now voted in, have favored good relations with India.
This means that Pakistan gets out of the way of the west’s plans to make India the ‘net security provider’ for the region. The Pakistan military’s focus is on economic development. With a pro-India political dispensation, it should be possible to work out the specifics to get Pakistan breathing space to fix its domestic ills. Pakistan will maintain its special relations with China but will not be in the front on contesting the US Indo-Pacific strategy.
The ball is now in India’s court and chances are that the Hindutva prone Modi administration may not reciprocate the new openings for healthy relations with Pakistan and opt for a hardline approach that will roil public opinion in Pakistan and make it difficult for the government to realize the prospects of genuine rapprochement, even on largely Indian terms.
But definitely, a stream of measures seems to be on the card. Restoration of diplomatic relations at the level of high commissioners to begin with, followed by a normalization of trade relations, the easing of visas and resumption of people-to-people contacts. If India is smart, it may also now favor resumption of the SAARC process of regional cooperation.
Resumption of a high-level dialogue with no fixed agenda should be possible. The Kashmir issue is likely to be relegated to the back burner with Pakistan maintaining its position of token support for Kashmiri self-determination.
It is questionable whether the US and UK will be prepared to invest political capital in persuading India to pursue normalization measures with Pakistan with a degree of fairness. Pakistan’s geo-strategic location does not permit missteps in a volatile and extremely charged global environment. Opting for a safe corner is understandable but whether turbulent forces unleashed around will allow Pakistan to prosper in peace is difficult to surmise.
The fateful vote thus will bring little reprieve if it is to trigger greater political upheavals within and if the new coalition fails to hold ground.
- Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.
Twitter: @Salman_B_PK
