Brewing political storm
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Politics in Pakistan has taken a fateful turn with the combined opposition having moved a vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan in the National Assembly. The Prime Minister is unnerved by the no-trust move despite his protestations to the contrary. Repeatedly in public rallies he has lashed out at the opposition, used unrestrained language, ridiculed opponents, vowed to defeat them and threatened to teach them a lesson. His government has also accused unnamed international powers of conspiring against Khan using opposition parties as proxies. This narrative, which lacks any evidence, is aimed at portraying the Prime Minister as a martyr should the no-confidence move succeed. Official spokesmen have been tweeting ‘conspiracy theories’ and claiming this in TV talk shows. All of this reflects panic in the government.
The political battle has also intensified in Punjab, Pakistan’s largest province, where a number of disgruntled ruling party MPAs have gone public with their grievances against the leadership and are believed to be making common cause with a pivotal group of dissident PTI lawmakers led by Jahangir Khan Tareen, who fell out with Khan over two years ago. This endangers PTI’s provincial government headed by a weak and unpopular chief minister. Negotiations among these groups and with the opposition are in progress to replace the chief minister with an agreed candidate.
To save his government at the center, Khan belatedly reached out to some estranged party figures and met with allies of his coalition government, MQM, PML-Q and Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) to secure assurances of support from them. These three parties have 17 members in the National Assembly between them – enough to tilt the balance for or against the government in the no-confidence vote.
The road ahead is unpredictable with more volatility expected.
Maleeha Lodhi
With the political situation fluid and intense bargaining, posturing and wheeling and dealing underway it is hard to predict the outcome of the no-confidence move. If the opposition succeeds in forcing Khan’s constitutional ouster, it will then have to decide whether to elect a new leader until the time general elections are due next year, which will mean all the assemblies will continue. Or will they agree on immediate polls, which under the constitution will have to be held within ninety days. If the opposition opts for the former: the government it forms will have the challenging task of steering the country through tough economic times with inflation skyrocketing, the current account deficit hitting a record high and the heightened risk of higher oil prices due to the fallout of the Ukraine conflict. It is from this tough position that the party or parties that may form the government will have to navigate the road to elections making that outcome more uncertain than ever.
In the other scenario, if Imran Khan manages to defeat the no-trust vote he will emerge stronger and use the remaining year or so in office to consolidate his position ahead of elections. His angry rhetoric against the opposition suggests he may also want to settle scores with them rather than put this episode behind him. He has already said several times that he would “go after” the three opposition leaders after he wins the vote. This could drive him into self-defeating authoritarian actions against political opponents and critics in the media. It would then lead to an even more volatile period with the deteriorating economic situation contributing to political instability. For the opposition its defeat would strike a heavy blow to its credibility and be a setback with indeterminate repercussions for its electoral fortunes down the road.
The outcome politics ahead is likely to be quite messy. An indication of this came in the clash between the police and a so-called volunteer force of JUI-F ( Ansarul Islam) last week, when law enforcement personnel stormed parliament lodges where MPs reside. This led to physical scuffles and many arrests including of members of parliament in present. Meanwhile the Prime Minister has given a call to PTI workers and supporters to descend on Islamabad for a “massive” public rally in front of the National Assembly a day before the Parliamentary vote. If the aim is to stop PTI dissidents from going in to cast their vote in a bid to counter the no-trust move that would spell trouble. Already statements by senior ministers that such dissidents will have to make their way past the PTI crowd have an ominous tone. The opposition alliance for its part has announced that its supporters will march on the capital on March 23 raising fears of clashes between rival groups.
Meanwhile, verbal duels between the government and opposition leaders have turned more vicious and involve abusive exchanges between top leaders. This has also entailed both sides accusing each other of lack of patriotism. The danger is of political tempers boiling over ahead of the Assembly session to make the environment even more charged. The road ahead is unpredictable with more volatility expected. Prolonged political uncertainty can further threaten the country’s stability and spell more trouble for an ailing economy.
- Maleeha Lodhi is a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UK & UN. Twitter @LodhiMaleeha
