The shifting sands of Pakistani politics threaten the government
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Political uncertainty grips the country as the opposition parties gear up to move a no confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan. It could be a very close call for the coalition government riven by internal discord. It may not be an endgame for the beleaguered government but nothing is certain given the ever-shifting sands of Pakistani politics.
It’s now the matter of a numbers’ game. While the opposition seems confident about mustering enough votes in the National Assembly to oust the government, there is no evidence yet of defections from the ruling coalitions. The opposition is yet to move a no confidence motion but a show of strength is expected in the coming parliamentary session. The game of political wheeling and dealing is on.
There has been a major shift in the country’s politics over the last few weeks with the two main opposition parties- the Pakistan Muslim League (N) and Pakistan Peoples’ Party – forming a united front against the government. Some other smaller opposition groups have also joined the alliance. In order to increase the pressure on the administration, the combined opposition also plans to march on Islamabad in the next few weeks.
The government is certainly feeling the heat, as is evident by the prime minister’s move to appease the dissidents within his own party and estranged coalition partners. The PTI government has a very thin majority in the parliament and its survival depends on the support of four other smaller parties.
It is evident that the coalition partners have upped their stakes sensing the government’s vulnerability. But more troubling for the PTI are the growing voices of dissent within the party. The opposition claims to have secured the support of more than two dozen members of the ruling party. But nothing can be sure given the unpredictability of Pakistani politics.
What seems to have given impetus to the opposition’s campaign is the perceived neutrality of the military. There are even some speculations about a possible deal between the security establishment and some opposition leaders. There may not be any truth to such claims but the role of the security establishment remains pivotal in determining the course of politics in the country.
There seems to be little willingness on the part of the prime minister to see where his government has gone wrong.
Zahid Hussain
Matters have become more intriguing following media reports that the PML-N is desperately trying to mend fences with the military leadership. Given our political culture, one cannot rule out the meeting having taken place. Yet one cannot be sure about the outcome of these parleys. The military spokesman too has dismissed the report about a deal with the opposition. But that will not make speculation go away.
While our politics continues to pivot around the security establishment, a political development could determine the future course and shape of our politics in the coming months. The rumours about the establishment stepping back from its support to the Imran Khan government seem to have given the opposition significant political impetus. Interestingly, the entire political discourse revolves around whose side the security establishment is on. Not surprisingly, the military remains the final arbiter of power as squabbling political forces vie with one another to earn its blessings.
It’s evident that the government cannot continue to solely depend on the support of the security establishment to stay in power. Failure to deliver on both the political and economic fronts has already caused a decline in its political support base. Reliance on the military cannot improve governance.
There seems to be little willingness on the part of the prime minister to see where his government has gone wrong. There are always others to be blamed for the problems. It is either the misrule of previous regimes or the mafias that are held responsible for the country’s predicament.
It is evident that the prime minister is under a lot of pressure as public discontent grows over rising costs of living and the government fails to deliver on its promise to bring about change. Blaming mafias and cartels for the problem cannot satisfy the people who are directly affected by galloping food prices. The prime minister’s recent outburst against the opposition, media and judiciary has reinforced the widespread impression about his government’s increasingly untenable situation.
Unfortunately, the opposition too doesn’t have a clear political and democratic programme to mobilize public support and instead looks towards the military help it remove the government.
The prime minister appears to be fighting the toughest battle yet since coming to power. It remains to be seen if the opposition succeeds in its efforts to oust him. It’s dirty politicking with no winner in the game.
— Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson Centre and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with Militant Islam and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan. Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ. His latest book ‘No-Win War’ was published this year.
Twitter: @hidhussain
