COP26 may mark a turning point in history

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon attends a ceremonial gathering with Mapuche leader and Minga Indigena Lead Coordinator Claflin Lafkenche and other indigenous delegates ahead of the COP26, in Glasgow, on Saturday. (Reuters)
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Updated 31 October 2021
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COP26 may mark a turning point in history

  • 120 world leaders gather in Glasgow to discuss plans to cut emissions

LONDON: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called this week’s UN climate change summit, COP26, which kicks off in Glasgow today, a “turning point for humanity.”

Unfortunately, in the last few days, the normally Tiggerish Johnson has also warned that getting the world’s governments to agree on binding commitments to radically reset Earth’s climate trajectory, is “touch and go.”

COP26 is essentially the five-year report card on the world’s progress since the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change — the treaty that committed most of the world’s governments to stop the globe’s average temperature rising more than 2 degrees Celsius and ideally, keeping it at 1.5 degrees.

It is against this backdrop that the 120 leaders who will gather in Glasgow are expected to produce detailed plans for reducing emissions.

However, the UN has conceded that the emissions cuts offered by national governments will fall short of those needed to meet the 1.5 degrees.

Its most recent report on climate change warned the Earth is set to warm 2.7 degrees by the end of this century, almost double the target.

Instead of binding agreements on climate change, COP26 will simply see governments stressing their ambitions to further green their economies and agree on deals in other areas, such as coal investment, forest protection and other less economically sensitive sectors.

If you wanted an idea of why COP26 looks set to fall so woefully short of its Paris Agreement expectations, look no further than the announcement by the Australian government on Tuesday.

Australia, one of the world’s top producers of coal and gas, announced that it intends to target net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. However, like all but a handful of governments around the world, it has no intention of putting that aspiration into legally binding legislation.

Instead, Australia will rely on consumers and companies to drive emission reductions, although the government will invest around $15 billion to help funding for new greener technologies.

China, whose leader Xi Jinping is unlikely to attend COP26, is the world’s biggest producer of greenhouse gas, accounting for 28 percent of global emissions, compared with about 15 percent for the US in second place.

While China has invested heavily in renewables — it has a third of the world’s photovoltaic capacity, almost three times that of its closest solar rival, the US — it is also sharply increasing its domestic coal production to maintain its economic expansion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose country accounts for 5 percent of CO2 emissions, the fourth largest in the world, has also decided not to attend COP26. On the plus side, it does appear that India, No. 3 on the list at 7 percent and the world’s second-largest consumer of coal, will be represented in Glasgow by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

But the absence of those two key leaders will clearly impede the potential for any sort of meaningful progress on climate change, particularly in the current geopolitical climate of increased competing interests.

Even an agreement to get Western governments to make good the $20 billion a year shortfall in helping emerging nations transition to greener energy looks to be a forlorn hope now.

Developed nations had agreed as far back as 2009 during COP in Copenhagen to provide $100 billion per year to pay for the decarbonization of emerging nations by 2020, but have so far only paid $80 billion. It emerged this week that the $100-billion goal will not now be reached until 2023, partly because the US rejected making up the shortfall any sooner. COP26 President and UK government official Alok Sharma said that the delay was “a source of deep frustration.”

So what will emerge from COP26? It is likely that world leaders will agree to stop investing in overseas coal mining. The G7 has already signed up to this, and China recently announced that it would do the same. That looks attainable, though it will not impact domestic production amid the current energy crisis.

There will also be a commitment to reduce global deforestation. The destruction of forests, for the production of palm oil, timber and for grazing, has major implications for climate change, as trees absorb more than one-third of global carbon emissions.

However, earlier this year, Frances Seymour, an expert at the US-based World Resources Institute, said that several countries had previously made deforestation pledges they failed to meet.

Humanity may be at a turning point, but global governments, it seems, are still failing to turn.


World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience.
Updated 23 January 2026
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World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

  • Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
  • Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience

DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.

Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.

“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.

Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.

“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.

His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.

“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.

Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.

Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.

Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”

Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.

Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.

She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.

Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.

Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.

Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.

Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”

In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.

“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.

American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”

Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.

“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.

Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.

Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.

“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.

Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier. 

“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.

Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.

“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.

The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.

“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.

“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.

Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.

“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.

WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.