The looming threat of civil war in Afghanistan
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The Ghani-Biden meeting failed to produce any outcome-- as expected. But the Afghan President wanted to make one last ditch attempt to persuade the US leadership to come to his government’s rescue. The Americans however have made up their minds. They have come to the conclusion that continuation of the conflict just does not serve their interests.
Ghani has returned to Kabul without any gains and will now have to confront harsh ground realities. For the Afghan government, time is running out. Soon there will be no foreign forces or a formidable array of jets bombing Taliban positions. It will have to rely on the Afghan national army to combat the Taliban and check their momentum of capturing districts one after another, mostly without a fight.
The current scenario is, from the government’s point of view, unsustainable. More than 140 districts out of a total of 421 have fallen to the Taliban. Morale in the Afghan national army is low. Private militias are emerging across the country to stop the Taliban advance. The Hazaras have set up their own militia which, besides offering resistance to Taliban, could also help the Afghan army put up resistance against the Taliban. There are reports that Ahmad Masood, son of the late commander Ahmad shah Masoud, has also begun work on raising an army of volunteers to fight the Taliban. Private armies are being raised by some other former warlords in northern and central Afghanistan.
This is a recipe for factional fighting. If the country descends into a civil war, with no winners and losers, the cost to the country will be enormous. Gen. Austin Miller, commander of the US-led forces warned: “Civil war is certainly a path that can be visualized.”
“That should be a concern for the world.”
The most ominous development is that the Kabul government is encouraging the creation of private armies and militias to confront the Taliban juggernaut. This move is aimed at deliberately creating chaos so that the US might be persuaded to return to Afghanistan and ‘’save the system.’’ But such intervention is not on the cards– for now. The move to encourage the formation of regional militias will cause more misery and more suffering. If it is unchecked, there will be anarchy and human suffering on an unprecedented scale. Private, undisciplined militias with no training and no accountability will be a step towards complete disaster.
How the civilian government handles the next few weeks could direct which way the situation in Afghanistan will go.
Rustam Shah Mohmand
US policy is ambivalent. It is not pursuing the goal of an agreed settlement to bring about a peaceful transition. It is not bringing pressure to bear upon Ghani’s government to show flexibility. On the other hand, his government is making desperate attempts to survive by all possible means including the conditions for civil war.
One plausible and pragmatic way out of this seemingly grave emergency is that the Taliban gain a quick victory and install a government in Kabul that includes leaders of other factions and ethnic groups. That however, does not seem likely because the Afghan National army is not yet broken. Morale is low but they retain the capacity to hold back Taliban advances for some weeks.
The next 6 to 8 weeks will be critical for the future of the war-torn country . Full US withdrawal is only days away. Taliban are poised to take control of more areas in the north. Private militias are assuming the role of law enforcement– a dangerous move, and Afghanistan is on edge.
If a civil war does break out, there will be uncontrollable violence all over the country. Many Afghan families will seek shelter in neighboring countries including Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The Taliban may emerge as victors but the cost of their triumph will be incalculable, with the gigantic task of reconstruction and rehabilitation ahead, and possible only if the group becomes aligned with the international community and promotes values such as tolerance, women’s education, pluralism and democracy.
The Ghani government must stop playing the role of a spoiler. Not its political survival but the survival of the country should guide its philosophy and approach. How the civilian government handles the next few weeks could direct which way the situation in Afghanistan will go.
– Rustam Shah Mohmand is a specialist of Afghanistan and Central Asian Affairs. He has served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan and also held position of Chief Commissioner Refugees for a decade.
