US and China: Still on a rocky course
https://arab.news/n3mhw
US-China relations continue on a volatile course. Hopes that the world’s most consequential relationship will be more stable under the Biden Administration have not materialized. President Donald Trump’s policies had plunged ties to such a low that it gave rise to widespread fears that the standoff between the global powers would lead to a new ‘cold war’. His constant demonizing of China, trade restrictions as well as the tech war he unleashed kept escalating tensions between the two countries. The outbreak of the pandemic prompted Trump to heap blame on China for being the cause of the global health crisis. More recently, President Joe Biden ordered US intelligence agencies to probe the origins of Covid-19. Predictably, Beijing reacted sharply. Rejecting the need for any investigation it accused the US of politicizing the pandemic.
The stance taken by President Biden is different only in tone and not substance from his predecessor’s antagonistic policy toward Beijing. It reflects and reinforces the political and Congressional consensus in the US – fueled by Trump’s actions and rhetoric – which sees China as an adversary and a manipulative economic competitor who poses a strategic challenge to be countered and contained. Biden is apparently also sensitive to the charge by the Republican Party that he is ‘soft’ on China.
This explains why America’s top diplomat, Secretary of State Tony Blinken has described relations with China as having three aspects – adversarial, competitive and cooperative. Recently the White House’s top official for Asia declared that “the period that was broadly described as engagement has come to an end.” Kurt Campbell, coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs also said that US policy toward China will now be pursued within a “new set of strategic parameters” in which “the dominant paradigm is going to be competition.”
China has been reacting coolly though firmly to such US assertions while emphasizing that cooperative ties are in the mutual interest of both countries. Beijing wants to steady the rocky relationship but there are obviously limits to its patience in the face of hostile US actions. American efforts to mobilize European and other allies into taking a harder line toward Beijing has brought forth a strong reaction from Chinese officials. After the G7 summit in London in early May the communique issued accused China of grave human rights abuses and ‘coercive economic policies’ while declaring support for Taiwan. China condemned this statement as “gross interference” in its internal affairs.
China, as a rising power needs to credibly reassure Washington that “it is neither pursuing a sphere of influence by pushing the US out of East Asia” nor “aiming to replace the existing international order.” The US should “resist pursuing a containment strategy and seeking to mobilise the US public and its allies for a new cold war.”
Maleeha Lodhi
Growing nationalist sentiment in China is urging Beijing to push back more strongly against western criticism. This sentiment is already driving a more assertive Chinese policy globally. In China more and more voices are advocating that Beijing toughen its policy in the face of America’s efforts to contain China. Nevertheless, top Chinese officials continue to call for calm in relations with Washington. In April while addressing the Boao forum, President Xi Jinping warned that any economic decoupling between the two global powers would be to the world’s detriment. Although he did not name the US, he directed sharp criticism at American efforts to de-link supply chains and ban the sale of high-tech products to Chinese companies. This once again brought into focus the intense tech war between the two countries.
Present indications suggest that the turbulence in ties will persist as competition intensifies but ways will also be sought to cooperate in limited areas of common interest – for example on climate change. The problem of course is how stable relations can be when there is unmanaged competition and an ‘adversarial’ dimension in play.
Much is being written by Western commenters on how the Biden administration should conduct relations with Beijing. This ranges from hawkish views to those such as Henry Kissinger, the leading proponent and architect of an engagement policy toward China, who urged a more balanced approach. On the other hand, one of the most thoughtful suggestions have come from a Chinese academic worth citing for his prudent advice.
In an article in Foreign Affairs titled ‘New engagement consensus’ Professor Wang Dong argues that a new Cold War is neither inevitable nor desirable. He calls for a new approach to engagement predicated on “G2RS’’ – a vision of the two countries as responsible stakeholders. In this China and the US “would continue to hedge against each other, but manage their differences in a calibrated, constructive manner.” They would lead the world together rather than engage in a rivalry that divides the world.
This new consensus could emerge if the two countries tried to better understand each other’s perspectives. According to Dong this would require strategic reassurance to address the trust deficit. China, as a rising power needs to credibly reassure Washington that “it is neither pursuing a sphere of influence by pushing the US out of East Asia” nor “aiming to replace the existing international order.” The US should “resist pursuing a containment strategy and seeking to mobilize the US public and its allies for a new cold war.”
Wise counsel for how to stabilize a relationship whose future course will have far reaching consequences for the global economy and international stability as well as for addressing a range of challenges.
- Maleeha Lodhi is a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UK & UN. Twitter @LodhiMaleeha
