Oxford study: Return of US shale could derail oil market rebalancing

A drilling rig operates in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas producing area in New Mexico. (Reuters)
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Updated 16 May 2021
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Oxford study: Return of US shale could derail oil market rebalancing

  • With global crude prices heading back toward $70 a barrel, the financial pressures on US shale have eased

DUBAI: The rising oil price could allow for a significant return of US shale to the market in 2022, potentially threatening the rebalancing of the global oil market, according to an analysis by the authoritative Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

In its latest monthly report, Institute Director Bassam Fattouh and analyst Andreas Economou wrote: “As we enter 2022, the US shale response becomes a major source of uncertainty amid an uneven recovery across shale plays and players alike. As in previous cycles, US shale will remain a key factor shaping market outcomes.”

With global crude prices heading back toward $70 a barrel, the financial pressures on US shale have eased, and producers have adapted to the constraints of lower demand. “There has been a shift in perceptions about this sector’s behavior. There is a widely held belief that US shale producers have endorsed the principle of capital discipline,” the authors said.

The key “rig count” — the number of drilling operations in progress on shale fields — is set to rise to 602 by the end of the year, a big jump from the 13-year low of 222 rigs last summer. While the direct relationship between rigs and production is complex, the authors concluded that rising shale output could affect the careful calculations of OPEC+, the producers’ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to balance the global market.

“Unless demand underperforms relative to current expectations, an increase in US shale output of 0.95 million barrels per day could be absorbed, though this would reduce the overall supply deficit to 0.66 million. If the US shale growth hits the upper bound of 1.22 million barrels per day and demand recovery turns out to be slower than expected, then US shale could disturb the rebalancing, flipping the market into a surplus in Q4 2022,” the report added.


First EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials reflects shared policy commitment

Updated 16 January 2026
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First EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials reflects shared policy commitment

RIYADH: The EU–Saudi Arabia Business and Investment Dialogue on Advancing Critical Raw Materials Value Chains, held in Riyadh as part of the Future Minerals Forum, brought together senior policymakers, industry leaders, and investors to advance strategic cooperation across critical raw materials value chains.

Organized under a Team Europe approach by the EU–GCC Cooperation on Green Transition Project, in coordination with the EU Delegation to Saudi Arabia, the European Chamber of Commerce in the Kingdom and in close cooperation with FMF, the dialogue provided a high-level platform to explore European actions under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and ResourceEU alongside the Kingdom’s aspirations for minerals, industrial, and investment priorities.

This is in line with Saudi Vision 2030 and broader regional ambitions across the GCC, MENA, and Africa.

ResourceEU is the EU’s new strategic action plan, launched in late 2025, to secure a reliable supply of critical raw materials like lithium, rare earths, and cobalt, reducing dependency on single suppliers, such as China, by boosting domestic extraction, processing, recycling, stockpiling, and strategic partnerships with resource-rich nations.

The first ever EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials was opened by the bloc’s Ambassador to the Kingdom, Christophe Farnaud, together with Saudi Deputy Minister for Mining Development Turki Al-Babtain, turning policy alignment into concrete cooperation.

Farnaud underlined the central role of international cooperation in the implementation of the EU’s critical raw materials policy framework.

“As the European Union advances the implementation of its Critical Raw Materials policy, international cooperation is indispensable to building secure, diversified, and sustainable value chains. Saudi Arabia is a key partner in this effort. This dialogue reflects our shared commitment to translate policy alignment into concrete business and investment cooperation that supports the green and digital transitions,” said the ambassador.

Discussions focused on strengthening resilient, diversified, and responsible CRM supply chains that are essential to the green and digital transitions.

Participants explored concrete opportunities for EU–Saudi cooperation across the full value chain, including exploration, mining, and processing and refining, as well as recycling, downstream manufacturing, and the mobilization of private investment and sustainable finance, underpinned by high environmental, social, and governance standards.

From the Saudi side, the dialogue was framed as a key contribution to the Kingdom’s industrial transformation and long-term economic diversification agenda under Vision 2030, with a strong focus on responsible resource development and global market integration.

“Developing globally competitive mineral hubs and sustainable value chains is a central pillar of Saudi Vision 2030 and the Kingdom’s industrial transformation. Our engagement with the European Union through this dialogue to strengthen upstream and downstream integration, attract high-quality investment, and advance responsible mining and processing. Enhanced cooperation with the EU, capitalizing on the demand dynamics of the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, will be key to delivering long-term value for both sides,” said Al-Babtain.

Valere Moutarlier, deputy director-general for European industry decarbonization, and directorate-general for the internal market, industry, entrepreneurship and SMEs at European Commission, said the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and ResourceEU provided a clear framework to strengthen Europe’s resilience while deepening its cooperation with international partners.

“Cooperation with Saudi Arabia is essential to advancing secure, sustainable, and diversified critical raw materials value chains. Dialogues such as this play a key role in translating policy ambitions into concrete industrial and investment cooperation,” she added.