Taliban refusal to attend Istanbul conference has made Afghan endgame trickier
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The Afghan endgame remains tricky with the postponement of the peace conference in Istanbul after Taliban’s refusal to attend it. The militia has now linked its participation in peace talks with the complete withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan and has accused the US of violating the February 2020 peace agreement by extending the May 1 deadline for the complete withdrawal of foreign troops.
This has put the possibility of the Afghan government and the insurgent group reaching an agreement on the future political set-up in Afghanistan before the American withdrawal in jeopardy. The situation has become more complicated with the insurgents continuing their military offensive as residual American forces have started packing up to leave.
President Joe Biden earlier this month declared the end of what is described as America’s ‘forever war’ in Afghanistan. The announcement came nearly two decades after president George W. Bush had initiated hostilities. Declaring that the US had long ago accomplished its mission, Biden said all the troops would be withdrawn from Afghanistan by Sept 11. There are 2500-3000 American troops in Afghanistan at the moment and their departure will begin May 1.
Last month, the American Secretary of State presented an eight-page peace plan for the Afghan government and the Taliban in order to break the stalemate in intra Afghan talks. The two sides were supposed to meet in Istanbul in April to cobble together an agreement on the basis of the proposed framework. The peace draft laid out an ambitious roadmap for a future political set-up. It proposed a phased plan for reduction of violence followed by a permanent ceasefire between the warring Afghan sides.
But both the Afghan government and the Taliban are skeptical of the American peace plan. The major sticking point is the formation of an interim government. While President Ghani has presented his own three-phased peace plan, the Taliban have not commented on either of the two plans.
The two Afghan warring sides began negotiations in Doha last September, but they have failed to even agree on a framework for a structured dialogue. The Istanbul meeting was meant to fast track the peace process. But efforts by US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Pakistani officials have failed to persuade the Taliban leadership to attend the meeting. While no fresh date for the meeting has been announced, some reports suggest that it could be convened by the end of May.
There have been reports of an increasing number of desertions in the Afghan government forces hit by low morale and casualty rate. In some areas the Afghan security forces have abandoned checkpoints on several major highways, allowing the insurgents to establish their rule.
Zahid Hussain
Taliban’s refusal to attend the Istanbul talks has increased the uncertainty over the situation in Afghanistan after America’s withdrawal. However, there is some indication that the insurgents could agree to join the talks if their demands are met for removing some Taliban leaders from the UN terrorist list and lifting the travel ban on them. The group also wants the release of all Taliban prisoners held by the Afghan government before the talks.
However, there are some other problems that could obstruct progress in the peace process. There is no indication of the insurgent group agreeing to a ceasefire as envisaged in the peace draft. Both sides have stuck to their rigid positions, making it hard to move forward. It’s not just the Taliban but also the Afghan government which is responsible for the prevailing uncertainty in the country.
Another worrying matter is that there has not been a cessation in hostilities with the Taliban trying to expand territorial control. According to international media reports, in recent months Afghan security forces have abandoned dozens of checkpoints in the face of the Taliban offensive.
There have been reports of an increasing number of desertions in the Afghan government forces hit by low morale and casualty rate. In some areas the Afghan security forces have abandoned checkpoints on several major highways, allowing the insurgents to establish their rule.
This has led to the growing fear that the situation could worsen after the departure of foreign forces. Some observers believe that the Taliban seek to expand their military gains before agreeing to talk to the Afghan government in a position of strength. The struggling Afghan government is not in a position to stop the Taliban assault without the support of foreign forces.
A report recently published in American media quoting a classified intelligence assessment presented to the Biden administration said Afghanistan could fall largely under Taliban control within two to three years after the departure of international forces.
With no political settlement in place, the prospect for the restoration of peace in Afghanistan is bleak. There may be an end to America’s “forever war” in Afghanistan after September, but peace will remain elusive for Afghans who have only seen conflict for the past many generations.
– Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholar, USA, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with militant Islam (Columbia university press) and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan (Simon and Schuster, NY). Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ.
Twitter: @hidhussain
