FOCUS: VACCINES AND CENTRAL BANKERS

A researcher at the Institute of Molecular Biology and Genetics (IBGM) of the University of Valladolid (UVa) works on searching for a vaccine against COVID-19 at a laboratory in Valladolid on November 10, 2020. (AFP)
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Updated 13 November 2020
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FOCUS: VACCINES AND CENTRAL BANKERS

The week that was:
Markets displayed the usual coronavirus disease (COVID-19) yoyo, rallying on news that a vaccine was 90 percent effective and losing some of their gains once the reality of manufacturing and distribution set in.
The Eurozone economy grew 12.7 percent in Q3 according to Eurostat. This is hindsight; the new restrictions and lockdowns across the continent will adversely affect GDP numbers going forward.
India’s GDP contracted 8.6 percent during 3Q, compared to 24 percent during 2Q, putting the economy into recession.
Estimates by the General Authority of Statistics say Saudi Arabia’s GDP contracted 4.2 percent during Q2. While this is the fifth consecutive decline in GDP, it is considerably less than in Q2, which stood at 7 percent. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the Saudi economy to contract by 5.2 percent this year; the Kingdom was hard hit by falling oil prices and production cuts under OPEC+ arrangements, necessitated by historic demand declines due to the pandemic.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman released a statement delineating Saudi Vision 2030, which is geared to ween the economy off dependence on the oil sector. According to the Saudi Press Agency oil income is expected to decline by SR 410 billion ($109.3 billion), but non-oil revenue will rise to SR 360 billion, up 14 percent thanks to the reorientation of the economy.
Ratings agency Fitch left the Kingdom’s credit rating at A, but gave it a negative outlook on account of an expected budget deficit for 2020 of 12.8 percent this year, compared to 4.5 percent in 2019.
Oman plans to transfer 60 percent of its largest oilfield (Block 6) which has a production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Petroleum Development Oman to a separate company. The company should raise $3 billion from the international bond markets. This is a creative solution to Oman’s debt raising woes, as the bonds would be secured by a separate revenue stream avoiding stretching the county’s balance sheet.
Alibaba’s “Singles Day” broke records, achieving sales worth $75 billion on Nov. 11, compared to $38 billion last year.
The China tech sector encountered headwinds from Beijing’s new policy to curb “monopoliztic tendencies” in Big Tech. This hurt Alibaba Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi & co by slashing $270 billion of their valuations. Shanghai’s Index lost 6 percent on Wednesday. Over a 48-hour period these shares shed 11 percent on the Hang Sen.

US President Donald Trump issued an executive order banning US investors from owning shares of Chinese companies with links to China’s People’s Liberation Army, which knocked high single digits off telecom shares in Hong Kong on Friday. US investors have until Nov. 2021 to divest the shares.
Tik-Tok got some reprieve (a de facto postponement) from its ban by the US government. The Commerce Department announced that the ban would not go into effect until legal challenges are resolved.
The earnings season continued:
Disney shares rose 6 percent after it released stronger than expected 3Q results and reaching 73 million subscribers on Disney+ (It took Netflix 8 years to achieve a comparable number). The loss per share came in at $0.20 compared to an estimated loss of $0.71 per share according to Refinitiv. Revenues were $14.71 billion, also higher than expected.
Lyft shares similarly rose 6 percent on better than expected results. The company reported a 3Q loss of $460 compared to 463 in 3Q 2019. Revenue and ridership increased considerably compared to Q2. Management expects Lyft to turn profitable by the end of 2021.
Rosneft reported sales of $78 billion and a net income of $409 million for the first 9 months of the year. The company did however not manage to post a profit in Q3.
Focus:
News of the 90 percent efficacy of Pfizer BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine was welcome as global cases neared 52 million, and worldwide deaths exceeded 1.2 million.
Markets reacted exuberantly. Value stocks rose and the main beneficiaries of the pandemic, Big Tech, lost. One rout does not make a rotation, and tech shares made good on their losses later in the week.

This can be explained by the fact that manufacturing a vaccine at scale will pose its own sets of challenges. Logistics and distribution are also not straightforward because the vaccine in question has to be stored at temperatures below 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Quite apart from the difficulties and expense this poses to transport, most medical institutions do not have adequate refrigeration capacity.
Three of the world’s top central bankers, the Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell, the European Central Bank’s Christine Lagarde and the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, all stressed that while progress on vaccines was positive, it was not the be all and end all.
They argued that quite apart from wider availability of the vaccine being months away, the economy still needed significant stimulus to get over the recession caused by the pandemic. They reiterated concerns over growing inequality and the need for fiscal stimulus, and stressed that their institutions stood ready to address the issue within the parameters of monetary policy.
Powell, Lagarde and Bailey have a point: Monetary policy alone will not be sufficient to address the structural difficulties arising from the worst recession since the Second World War. The world economy is reeling. Nothing depicts this better than air traffic: Global aviation lost one third of its scheduled routes between January and October 2020  according to OAG Aviation Worldwide.
People will only be willing to venture out, consume and travel at pre-pandemic levels once they feel secure. According to different estimates, that will take until between the end of 2022 and 2024.
Where we go from here:
US President-elect Joe Biden, has appointed his 12-member pandemic task force and is working on his transition plans.
Brexit negotiations are dragging on with ever less runway left for a trade deal by Dec. 31. Meanwhile Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s closest adviser, and the mastermind of the Brexit campaign, Dominic Cummings, will leave 10 Downing Street by the end of the year.
China is expected to sign the world’s largest trade deal this weekend during the ASEAN summit. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which is Beijing’s brainchild, includes 15 Asian countries, 2.2 billion people and a combined GDP of $22.6 trillion. It notably excludes the US, Canada and other countries of the Western Pacific.

It stands in contrast to the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), which includes many of the same countries plus the US, Canada and Mexico and others, but excludes China. Exiting the TPP was Trump’s first action when he entered the White House in 2017. Thereafter, Japan and Canada put together the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the TPP’s successor, without the US. It will be interesting to see what the Biden administration will do about the TPP.

— Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources. Twitter: @MeyerResources


China’s Shenzhou-18 mission docks with space station

Updated 26 April 2024
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China’s Shenzhou-18 mission docks with space station

  • The astronauts took off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in China’s northwest at 8:59 p.m. local time Thursday
  • The astronauts will stay at the Tiangong space station for six months, carrying out experiments

JIUQUAN, China: A spaceship carrying three astronauts from China’s Shenzhou-18 mission safely docked at Tiangong space station Friday, state-run media reported, the latest step in Beijing’s space program that aims to send astronauts to the Moon by 2030.

The crew took off in a capsule atop a Long March-2F rocket from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in China’s northwest at 8:59 p.m. local time 1259 GMT) Thursday.
By early Friday the spacecraft had “successfully docked” with the space station, state-run news agency Xinhua reported, citing the China Manned Space Agency.
The mission is led by Ye Guangfu, a fighter pilot and astronaut who was previously part of the Shenzhou-13 crew in 2021.
He is joined by astronauts Li Cong and Li Guangsu, who are heading into space for the first time.

Onlookers cheered as the rocket blasted off into the night sky, an AFP journalist at the scene said.
Xinhua said the launch had been declared a “complete success.”
The astronauts will stay at the Tiangong space station for six months.

There they plan to carry out experiments “in the fields of basic physics in microgravity, space material science, space life science, space medicine and space technology,” the China Manned Space Agency has said.
They will also try and create an aquarium onboard and seek to raise fish in zero gravity, according to Xinhua.
“Not only will the taikonauts find joy in the space ‘aquarium,’ but it may also pave the way for their future counterparts to enjoy nutritious fish from their own in-orbit harvests,” it added.

They will also conduct experiments on “fruit flies and mice,” a researcher quoted by the agency said.
The new crew will replace the Shenzhou-17 team, who were sent to the station in October.
Plans for China’s “space dream” have been put into overdrive under President Xi Jinping.
The world’s second-largest economy has pumped billions of dollars into its military-run space program in an effort to catch up with the United States and Russia.
Beijing also aims to send a crewed mission to the Moon by 2030, and plans to build a base on the lunar surface.
China has been effectively excluded from the International Space Station since 2011, when the United States banned NASA from engaging with the country — pushing Beijing to develop its own orbital outpost.
That station is the Tiangong, which means “heavenly palace” — the crown jewel of a space program that has landed robotic rovers on Mars and the Moon, and made China the third country to independently put humans in orbit.
It is constantly crewed by rotating teams of three astronauts, with construction completed in 2022.
The Tiangong is expected to remain in low Earth orbit at between 400 and 450 kilometers (250 and 280 miles) above the planet for at least 10 years.
 


Wave of pro-Palestinian campus protests in US meets forceful response

Updated 26 April 2024
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Wave of pro-Palestinian campus protests in US meets forceful response

  • Students protesters tasered and teargassed in Atlanta and "swept away" in Austin, Texas
  • More than 530 arrests have been made in the last week across major US universities in relation to protests over Gaza

NEW YORK: Fresh clashes between police and students opposed to Israel’s war in Gaza broke out on Thursday, raising questions about forceful methods being used to shut down protests that have intensified since mass arrests at Columbia University last week.

Over the past two days, law enforcement at the behest of college administrators have deployed Tasers and tear gas against students protesters at Atlanta’s Emory University, activists say, while officers clad in riot gear and mounted on horseback have swept away demonstrations at the University of Texas in Austin.
At Columbia, the epicenter of the US protest movement, university officials are locked in a stalemate with students over the removal of a tent encampment set up two weeks ago as a protest against the Israeli offensive.
The administration, which has already allowed an initial deadline for an agreement with students to lapse, has given protesters until Friday to strike a deal.
Other universities appear determined to prevent similar, long-running demonstrations to take root, opting to work with police to shut them down quickly and in some cases, with force.
Overall, more than 530 arrests have been made in the last week across major US universities in relation to protests over Gaza, according to a Reuters tally. University authorities have said the demonstrations are often unauthorized and called on police to clear them.

Police officers arrest a demonstrator during a pro-Palestinian protest against the war in Gaza at Emory University on April 25, 2024, in Atlanta, Georgia. (AFP)

At Emory, police detained at least 15 people on its Atlanta campus, according to local media, after protesters began erecting a tent encampment in an attempt to emulate a symbol of vigilance employed by protesters at Columbia and elsewhere.
The local chapter of the activist group Jewish Voice for Peace said officers used tear gas and Tasers to dispense the demonstration and take some protesters into custody.
Video footage aired on FOX 5 Atlanta showed a melee breaking out between officers and some protesters, with officers using what appeared to be a stun gun to subdue a person and others wrestling other protesters to the ground and leading them away.
“Several dozen protesters trespassed into Emory University’s campus early Thursday morning and set up tents,” the school wrote in response to an emailed request for comment. It described the protesters as “activists attempting to disrupt our university,” but did not comment directly on the reports of violence.
Atlanta police did not immediately respond to inquiries about the number of protesters who were detained or about reports over the use of tear gas and stun guns.
Similar scenarios unfolded on the New Jersey campus of Princeton University where officers swarmed a newly-formed encampment, video footage on social media showed.
Boston police earlier forcibly removed a pro-Palestinian encampment set up by Emerson College, arresting more than 100 people, media accounts and police said. The latest clashes came a day after police in riot gear and on horseback descended on hundreds of student protesters at the University of Texas at Austin and arrested dozens of them.

Police arrest a protester at the University of Texas on April 24, 2024, in Austin, Texas. (Austin American-Statesman via AP)

But prosecutors on Thursday dropped charges against most of the 60 people taken into custody, mostly on misdemeanor charges of criminal trespassing and disorderly conduct, and said they would proceed with only 14 of those cases.
In dropping the charges, the Travis County district attorney cited “deficiencies in the probable cause affidavits.”

‘Alarming reports’
Human Rights Watch and the American Civil Liberties Union have condemned the arrest of protesters and urged authorities to respect their free speech rights.
But some Republicans in Congress have accused university administrators of allowing Jewish students to be harassed, putting increasing pressure on schools to tightly control any demonstrations and to block any semi-permanent encampment.
US Education Secretary Miguel Cardona on Thursday said his department was closely monitoring the protests, including what he called “very alarming reports of antisemitism.”
In response, activist groups have strongly denied that the protests are antisemitic. Their aim is to pressure universities from divesting from companies that contribute to the Israeli military actions in Gaza, they say.
Even so, protest leaders have acknowledged that hateful rhetoric has been directed at Jewish students, but insist that people who tried to infiltrate and malign their movement are responsible for any harassment.

Columbia University students participate in an ongoing pro-Palestinian encampment on their campus in New York City on April 25, 2024, following last week's arrest of more than 100 protesters. (Getty Images/AFP)

Friday deadline at Columbia
At Columbia, officials have given protesters until 4 a.m. on Friday to reach an agreement with the university on dismantling dozens of tents set up on the New York City campus in a protest that started a week ago.
An initial deadline of midnight Tuesday came and went without an agreement, but administrators extended it for 48 hours, citing progress in the talks.
The university already tried to shut the protest down by force. On April 18, Columbia President Minouche Shafik took the unusual move of asking police to enter the campus, drawing the ire of many rights groups, students and faculty.
More than 100 people were arrested and the tents were removed from the main lawn. But within a few days, the encampment was back in place, and the university’s options appeared to narrow.
Protesters have vowed to keep the protests going until their universities agree to disclose and divest any financial holdings that might support the war in Gaza, and grant amnesty to students suspended from school during the demonstrations.
Student protesters have also demanded that the US government rein in Israeli strikes on civilians in Gaza, which have killed more than 34,000 people, according to Palestinian health authorities. Israel is retaliating against an Oct. 7 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people and led to 253 taken hostage, according to Israeli tallies.


US Embassy marks 248th Independence Day with shared US-Saudi vision for space exploration 

Updated 25 April 2024
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US Embassy marks 248th Independence Day with shared US-Saudi vision for space exploration 

  • Ambassador Michael Ratney welcomes hundreds of Saudi guests to space-themed Riyadh reception

RIYADH: The US Embassy in Riyadh celebrated the 248th anniversary of Independence Day on Thursday with a reception hosted by US Ambassador Michael Ratney. 

The ambassador welcomed guest of honor Prince Faisal bin Abdulaziz bin Ayyaf, Riyadh Region mayor, along with Saudi officials, and hundreds of Saudi guests, as well as visitors from Washington, including members of the US Congress.  

The space-themed Independence Day reception served as a symbolic celebration of the future of the US-Saudi cooperation in space, highlighting the profound benefits and possibilities of space exploration, research, and commercial development.

Ratney said the theme reflects the “shared ambition of the United States and Saudi Arabia to embrace opportunities in space, positioning both countries as pioneers in this frontier of innovation.” 

The event evoked nostalgia for past achievements, such as the 1969 moon landing, while emphasizing ongoing advancements in space sciences, particularly commercial space exploration. 

Ratney highlighted Saudi pioneers in space travel, such as Prince Sultan bin Salman, and astronauts Rayyanah Barnawi and Ali Al-Qarni. 

An art installation, “Museum of the Moon,” by artist Luke Jerram, featured NASA’s high-definition imagery of the lunar surface. 

According to the US Embassy’s statement, the collaboration between the US and Saudi Arabia continues to advance shared interests in diplomacy, commerce, culture, and more.

The US remains dedicated to enhancing shared US-Saudi shared interests in security and in fostering prosperity in the region, while also exploring new avenues for partnerships in areas such as the arts, education, entertainment, and tourism, it said.

Both countries are poised to explore further cooperation, including potential joint ventures in space, reflecting a vision for an even stronger US-Saudi relationship in the future, the statement added. 


Where We Are Going Today: Mr Chow, a Chinese restaurant in Riyadh

Updated 25 April 2024
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Where We Are Going Today: Mr Chow, a Chinese restaurant in Riyadh

If you are a fan of Chinese cuisine, you must check out Mr Chow’s restaurant, which opened in the King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh.

Specializing in real Chinese food, Mr Chow is located in the district’s upscale neighborhood, close to Zuma Lounge. Valet parking is available for your convenience.   

The smart venue is open daily for dinner and it’s exactly the sort of grand, modern spot you’d expect in the area. The glossy black entrance with neon artwork opens up to two floors of sprawling seats with white tablecloths, a spiral staircase, and staff in immaculate white outfits. 

Entering this establishment, you will be greeted with excellent service and a romantic atmosphere.   

The appetizers are a taste adventure in and of themselves You can begin your culinary journey with an appetizer of pot stickers, chicken satay, or glazed prawns with walnuts.

Following starters, opt for the Ma Mignon, a traditional tender fillet mignon served with fried rice on the side, or the fresh lobster. For dessert, be sure to try the rich chocolate cake. 

The food is presented wonderfully. You will love watching the chef skillfully work the dough live to make noodles. While enjoying your dinner, you can choose to sit outside and take in the stunning view of the financial district’s tall buildings and contemporary architecture.  

Who is Mr Chow? 

Michael Chow, founder and owner of the Mr Chow restaurant chain, is an actor, interior designer, artist, and British-Chinese restaurateur.

On Valentine’s Day 1968, London saw the opening of the first Mr Chow restaurant, where elite chefs served real Beijing cuisine along with novel creations, including Ma Mignon.

For half a century, clients have enjoyed watching the nightly handmade noodle show at all of the locations, and on the menu is one of the best-prepared Beijing ducks in the world. 

For more details, visit @mrchowriyadh.


Saudi, Cypriot foreign ministers discuss relations

Updated 25 April 2024
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Saudi, Cypriot foreign ministers discuss relations

Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Faisal bin Farhan received his Cypriot counterpart, Dr. Konstantinos Kompos, at the ministry’s headquarters in Riyadh on Thursday.

During the meeting, the ministers reviewed the advanced bilateral relations between the Kingdom and the Republic of Cyprus, and ways to promote them in a variety of fields. 

They also discussed ways to increase bilateral coordination on issues of common interest and reviewed international developments.