The transition of leadership will not change US-Afghan withdrawal plan
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With the imminent victory of Joe Biden, America is set to have a new man in the White House. It has indeed been the most momentous election in the country’s history and impacts the world’s most powerful nation-- and beyond. The transition of leadership is likely to bring a profound change in America –from populism to a more institutional functioning of the state.
Trump’s nonconformist style of governance has left the United States more divided and polarised. But the effect of Trump’s presidency has been equally consequential for the world.
Perhaps, the most controversial American president in recent history, Trump has disrupted the existing world order. Rejecting multilateralism, he pursued a policy of unilateralism and American exclusiveness. He pulled America out from various international treaties and multilateral agencies, and intensified international conflicts.
Trump may not have involved America militarily in any new war, but he tried to bully countries into submission. He particularly alienated his Western allies, causing disruption in the existing world order. Victory for his democratic rival will certainly change the course of American foreign policy and its return to multilateralism. The fall of Trump would at least restore some order in America’s relations with other countries and particularly, with its allies.
But the change of leadership in Washington will not affect the US plan to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. This is the only policy area where there is no difference of views between the two rivals. Biden is on record saying he fully supported President Trump’s policy to end US military involvement in Afghanistan.
Joe Biden as Vice President in the Obama administration (2008-2016) had strongly advocated for pulling out of the Afghan war. His views were not very different from the strategy that has been pursued by President Trump. The number of US troops in Afghanistan has already been reduced to 4,800 after the Trump administration signed a historic peace agreement with the Taliban in February this year, raising the prospects for ending America’s longest war.
President Trump has recently announced that all American soldiers would return home by Christmas this year. The announcement was contrary to his administration's plan linking the complete withdrawal of residual forces to an agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government on a political setup.
The change of leadership in Washington will not affect the US plan to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. This is the only policy area where there is no difference of views between the two rivals. Biden is on record saying he fully supported President Trump’s policy to end US military involvement in Afghanistan.
Zahid Hussain
While Joe Biden has publicly supported Trump's Afghan withdrawal plan, he has also called for a clear strategy to deal with Daesh. He also wants to reduce the number of US ground troops in Afghanistan to between 1,500 and 2,000 and focus their mission only on special operations against Daesh, and other militant threats.
In fact, Biden had gone even further than President Trump when in September he declared that America bore “zero responsibility’’ if the Taliban came back to power.
“The responsibility I have is to protect America’s national interest and not put our women and men in harm's way… that’s what I’d do as President,’’ Biden said in an interview with CBS.
Biden’s statement was a note of warning to those Afghan leaders who had put their stake in his victory in the hopes that the former vice president might reverse President Trump’s peace agreement with the Taliban and keep American forces in Afghanistan. There is a concern in Afghanistan that America’s pull out could give the Taliban a huge boost and ease pressure on the insurgents to reach a political settlement with the Afghan government.
Intra-Afghan talks that started in Doha on Sept. 10 have so far failed to make any breakthrough. There is still no agreement even on the framework for structured negotiations. The gap between the two sides is too wide to bridge.
A major hurdle in any progress in the talks that are shrouded in secrecy, is Taliban’s refusal to agree on the reduction of violence, much less a ceasefire. In fact, the fighting has intensified with no sign of the insurgents halting their offensive.
Meanwhile, the surge in Daesh attacks mostly targeting the civilian population has further complicated the situation in Afghanistan. The main objective of the militant group that has its origins in the Middle East seems to be to sabotage the Afghan peace process. The latest attack on Kabul University that has left a number of students dead indicates the increasing capacity of the group to launch a coordinated attack in the capital.
There is a growing worry that a hasty American exit from Afghanistan without an agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government on a transition setup could trigger a new and bloodier civil war in the country. There is a clear indication that the new president will maintain a counter-insurgency presence in Afghanistan to fight militancy.
– Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholar, USA, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC. He is the author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with militant Islam (Columbia university press) and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan (Simon and Schuster, NY). Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ.
Twitter: @hidhussain
