A ‘new era’ in the Eastern Mediterranean — or the ‘new normal’?
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As I write this, the focus of attention of many in Turkey, and neighboring countries, is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was due to make an announcement on Friday that he said would mark the “beginning of a new era” for the country.
Many predicted that this “good news” would relate to the discovery of a new gas field in the Eastern Mediterranean or the Black Sea.
A number of nations and other interested parties are involved in the dispute over control of natural resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, including Turkey, Israel, Russia, the US, the EU and Arab countries. In the past few months, it has been high on the international agenda.
Whether Friday’s announcement will truly mark the beginning of a new era for Turkey remains to be seen but one thing is certain: Despite calls for a new era in the relationship between Turkey and the EU, there seems to be no end in sight to the current era.
Turkey’s relationship with the EU has turned into a protracted courtship with no sign of marriage on the horizon, no sincere commitment but so many expectations. In addition, external forces have applied an increasing amount of pressure on the relationship, making things even harder. The latest statement by Faruk Kaymakci, Turkey’s deputy foreign minister and director of EU affairs, further proved this point.
“There are some accusations coming from the EU: ‘Turkey is drifting apart from the EU, from the EU’s values,’ they say. I think the main problem is that Turkey is being estranged from the EU,” he said, but added that despite this, Turkey is determined to pursue its relationship with the bloc.
Turkey is expected to top the agenda during a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Berlin on Aug. 27-28. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who currently chairs the EU’s rotating presidency, has been trying to persuade Turkey and Greece to enter into negotiations over their conflicting claims to air and sea rights in the region. In fact, Berlin has been working hard to ease tensions in the dispute for a while, but the frequent developments have sabotaged these efforts.
In mid-August, a Greek and a Turkish warship were involved in a minor collision in the Eastern Mediterranean. The incident further raised tensions in the most combustible naval stand-off the region has experienced in 20 years.
For decades, maritime boundary disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean have been internal issues for Turkey, Greece and the Greek-Cypriot administration.
Sinem Cengiz
For decades, maritime boundary disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean have been internal issues for the sides involved: Turkey, Greece and the Greek-Cypriot administration. However, the Arab uprisings did not only create a wave in the Arab world but also in the Eastern Mediterranean, which has become a key strategic arena in which Russia, the US, Israel, Egypt, France, Italy and others have become involved. Far from encouraging a solution to the years-long dispute, this external pressure has only further complicated the issue.
Very recently, the USS Hershel Woody Williams arrived at the Greek island of Crete on a mission to keep an eye on the escalating tensions between NATO allies Greece and Turkey over energy rights in the Eastern Mediterranean. The American warship joined others from the EU and Russia, raising concerns about the implications of the presence of several external forces.
The emergence of these new actors, in primary or secondary roles, in the Eastern Mediterranean transforms what was a years-long local dispute into a new military, economic and even ideological battle, raising the stakes considerably.
From the US perspective, the fact that Turkey, Greece and France are all members of NATO makes it crucial that the dispute is dealt with through diplomacy, by managing conflicting interests. For a similar reason, the EU cannot simply turn its back and ignore the dispute. Stability lover Merkel’s main task is to keep Turkey on track, while at the same time not giving the country the upper hand at the expense of EU members Greece and France. Meanwhile, the presence of Russia, which treats the Eastern Mediterranean as an area of rivalry with the US and the EU, challenges western influence in the region.
For Turkey, as long as its interests harmonize with those of the Russians, Moscow could be considered a port in the storm. Moscow and Ankara have, in the past few years, become experienced in finding common ground despite their differences.
Unilateral action, bilateral deals, increased frequency of state visits, provocative announcements resulting from these visits, EU meetings and their usual outcomes, tit-for-tats, and friction in the Eastern Mediterranean have become the new normal.
Every step taken to counter another has done nothing but lead the dispute down a blind alley. It is likely that it will remain top of the agenda in the states involved for some time, overshadowing the main problems facing those countries and the issues affecting the wider region in general.
Soon, eyes will turn to the EU summit in October, during which Turkey-EU ties will be brought to the table once again.
* Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz
