Uncertainty over prisoner swap program leaves intra-Afghan talks in limbo

While both the Afghan government and Taliban continue to maintain that they are ready to start the crucial intra-Afghan negotiations, just a week after the completion of a promised prisoners’ exchange program, the two groups are yet to take the steps required to complete the process.

President Ashraf Ghani’s government has objected to the release of certain Taliban prisoners which it believes were involved in heinous incidents or are important field commanders capable of posing a threat to peace in Afghanistan and the rest of the world. 

Afghan Senate chairman Fazal Hadi Muslimyar, a hard-liner opposed to peace talks with the Taliban, even claimed recently that some of the freed Taliban prisoners had already returned to the battlefield.

This was an undertaking sought by the government before releasing the Taliban prisoners as it was worried that they would resume fighting sooner or later.

Though it appears to be true that many Taliban prisoners had returned to the battlefield soon after their release, there are unverified reports of some being killed or captured. At the same time, the fact remains that rejoining the battlefield shortly after being released from imprisonment isn’t possible in practical terms.

A vast majority of prisoners would want to spend time with their families, while the sick and injured would require treatment. Others might study the situation before making their next move, while some could even be persuaded by their families to stop fighting. 

Both sides have differed over the identities and number of prisoners freed, but this hasn’t blocked the release of more prisoners even if the process is slow and is holding up the much-anticipated intra-Afghan dialogue.

Rahimullah Yusufzai

However, some among the freed Taliban prisoners are highly motivated fighters willing to join battle anytime.

It seems Kabul is making the argument –about not releasing certain Taliban prisoners – to seek concessions, including a reduction in violence and continued engagement before or during the talks. 

A permanent cease-fire is the desired objective of not only the Afghan government but also the US That is something the Taliban leadership may concede after hardcore bargaining once they make headway in the talks and achieve core objectives.

Earlier, the Taliban had dismissed all conditions set by Kabul for the release of the remaining prisoners and have persistently demanded that all 5,000 inmates must be freed as agreed upon prior to the signing of a historic peace deal in Doha, Qatar in February this year.

The Taliban had also made it clear that the talks won’t happen until all the inmates were freed and had committed to releasing 1,000 government prisoners as part of the swap.

They seem determined to do so as, otherwise, all Taliban inmates won’t be able to gain freedom. 

Until now, however, both sides have differed over the identities and number of prisoners freed, but this hasn’t blocked the release of more prisoners even if the process is slow and is holding up the much-anticipated intra-Afghan dialogue.

The prisoners’ issue will be eventually resolved as President Ghani could step back – as he has done so often in the past – more so if the US applies real pressure. 

As his government wasn’t part of the US-Taliban peace deal and the Taliban prisoners to be released were in its custody, he tried to use this issue as leverage to strengthen his beleaguered administration’s position in the upcoming and challenging negotiations with the Taliban.

The US, for its part, pointed out recently that it had reduced its troops in Afghanistan to 8,600 within 135 days, as per the Doha agreement, and removed its forces from five military bases in Helmand, Urozgan, Paktika, and Laghman provinces. 

The major bases, such as Bagram, however, would be the last to be vacated if the agreement is fully implemented. 

Meanwhile, Zalmay Khalilzad, the US’ special envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation, termed it as a ‘key milestone’ which would open the way for the next phase of the implementation of the agreement. 

However, he reminded the Taliban to reduce violence so that the Afghan peace talks could begin. 

Khalilzad did mention though that the US would continue to press for the prisoners’ releases – key criteria for initiating the dialogue between the stakeholders.

The US has repeatedly pointed out that the Doha deal is conditions-based and that the Taliban would have to meet commitments made on counter-terrorism actions and reduced violence. 

It means dissociating from terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda and disallowing them from using Afghanistan’s soil for attacks against the US and its allies. 

Despite the Taliban’s denials, a recent Pentagon report claimed that Al-Qaeda’s regional affiliate in Afghanistan continues to maintain close ties with the Taliban and has an enduring interest in attacking US troops.

Under the Doha agreement, the Taliban can no longer attack US-led foreign forces, a fact acknowledged by Khalilzad recently when he said that American soldiers hadn’t been attacked since then.

Afghan troops, however, aren’t being spared with Kabul claiming a spike in such assaults. 

The Taliban’s justification for the attacks is lack of a cease-fire agreement with the Afghan government, which could be discussed once the intra-Afghan negotiations begin and after the completion of the prisoner exchange program.

While the deadlines listed in the Doha agreement have been missed and the delay in exchanging prisoners and starting the dialogue – which was set to begin on March 10 – has caused frustration, the deal is intact, and neither side has indicated pulling out of it yet. 

All sides want to move ahead without compromising their positions as they are accountable to their supporters.

*Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst in Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998. Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1