Covid-19: Prevention, not cure, is unprepared Pakistan’s safest bet
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From a relatively aloof position as a curious bystander of its expansion across the globe, Pakistan has transitioned to an alarmed state on Covid-19 within a fortnight – during which it went from zero to 20 confirmed cases by the second week of March 2020. A sense of panic is now setting in among the public even as the government remains relatively casual in its public articulation of the situation and guiding the people on protection and restricting risky social behaviors.
With Covid-19 on an uptick outside of China – nearly a hundred countries are affected now with thousands dead and hundreds of thousands testing positive and millions in quarantine – Pakistan has also confirmed the spread of cases over large swathes of the country. Cases have been identified in Karachi, Quetta, Islamabad, Hyderabad and Gilgit. At least one of the persons testing positive has recovered while the first death of a Pakistani by coronavirus has been in Italy, the most affected country on the planet along with Iran, other than China.
While the numbers of identified cases currently remain relatively low, this can change fast. Is Pakistan prepared to deal with an outbreak and the potentially debilitating consequences of its fallout? Considering potential consequences, the official response on the issue so far does not inspire much confidence.
The otherwise vocal and critical Prime Minister Imran Khan, who frequently uses his Twitter account to articulate his position on issues, is conspicuous by his deafening silence on Covid-19 in Pakistan. The media is starting to question the low-key response of the state and the conspicuously absent leadership on the issue.
While the prime minister’s special adviser on health is one government functionary speaking about the issue, four of the country’s five regions where the ruling party enjoys a sway remain alarmingly quiet, including Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan. Only Sindh, ruled by an opposition party, has key functionaries issuing daily information about the state of Covid-19 in the province.
Whatever information is available and any countermeasures and prevention actions in place so far also do not inspire much trust. Sindh closed schools for a while in Karachi, where the bulk of the cases have emerged, but ministers say these will re-open shortly even as the Chinese consul general in the city broke diplomatic norms and publicly opposed the move, asking for extension in the closure.
Bordering Iran from where at least two positive cases have originated in Quetta, Balochistan has organized the largest quarantine zone in Pakistan but is severely under-resourced. Airport screenings for passengers have begun but remain questionably inadequate. Little or no information or guideline is available, even on health ministry websites or public sector health centers, on assistance or treatment facilities or procedures at hospitals.
Perhaps the biggest sin of the government right now is the palpably inadequate public communication on the issue and inadequate handling of what is set to become one of the most potentially devastating national security challenges in recent decades
Adnan Rehmat
Considering the lack of public awareness programs and vocal federal and provincial leadership on countering Covid-19, what are the worst-case scenarios for Pakistan and what consequences will flow from them? If there is a worst-case scenario, the government hasn’t said what it is albeit some media reports say an assessment by the government, not made public, admits severely limited capacity to treat only a limited number of extreme patients while any remaining suspects will be forced to quarantine at home.
What will a full outbreak cost Pakistan in economic terms? The Asian Development Bank puts a nearly $5 billion tag and over 1.5 percent in GDP losses. This would cripple Pakistan as it is already struggling to stay afloat underpinned by its worst economic performance in decades. The government says that the $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), on which Pakistan has premised its mid-term economic development, will not be affected but IMF begs to differ. The UN concurs, listing Pakistan in the 20 countries most negatively impacted economically by a coronavirus-impacted China.
But arguably the biggest sin of the government right now is the palpably inadequate public communication on the issue and inadequate handling of what is set to become one of the most potentially devastating national security challenges in recent decades. The government is simply too casual and far from adequately positioned in sensitizing public, optimizing viral prevention, and rapidly escalating response strategies and capacities.
Piecemeal, incremental steps will not do. The prime minister should lead from the front, announce a national health emergency, enlist the help of provincial chief ministers and launch a major awareness drive to help people become better disaster-prepared. Entry of foreign nationals must be minimized, all returning Pakistanis must be quarantine for 15 days, major public gatherings such as concerts and spectator sports banned for a few months, educational institutions closed for some months and enhanced hygiene and social distancing encouraged. Since it does not have the full required resources and capacities, the cure is too costly for Pakistan – only prevention offers adequate salvation.
- Adnan Rehmat is a Pakistan-based journalist, researcher and analyst with interests in politics, media, development and science.
Twitter: @adnanrehmat1
