KARACHI: Nadeem Shah, 62, desperately wants to sell his farming business on the outskirts of the southern city of Hyderabad.
After nearly four and a half decades of growing rice and cotton, Shah is struggling to make ends meet. “Our cost of input is constantly rising in this country and we don’t get the right price at the end of long and consistent hard work,” he told Arab News.
“Most importantly, the shortage of water is driving people out of the farming business … Ironically there is no government support.”
Shah is not the only farmer in the country facing these challenges.
The annual report released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday says growth in the agriculture sector may fall below last year’s level of 3.8 percent during the current fiscal year FY19.
“Decline in the area under sugarcane crop, water shortages at the time of sowing of kharif crops, especially cotton, and weak trends in the off-take of fertilizer indicate that the agriculture sector may not repeat last year’s extraordinary performance. Recent rains and improved water availability, as well as the increased area under rice and cotton crops, however, may provide some support,” the central bank said.
For an agricultural economy such as Pakistan, these are troubling trends. Agriculture contributes 18.9 percent to GDP and absorbs 42.3 percent of the labor force.
But with the population growing at 2.4 percent per year, shouldn’t there be a rising demand for agricultural products?
Farmers feel that the sector is neglected by the government. “No doubt there is a water shortage and impacts of global warming, but we have no support for research and development and supply of improved seeds. Besides, we do not get the prices of our product, even those fixed by the government,” Ijaz Ahmed Rao, a cotton grower from Punjab province, told Arab News.
Rao believes cotton is the strategic crop of Pakistan but the lack of improved seeds and technological advancement are making this sector unviable compared with other competitor countries including India.
“I have no words to express the condition of farmers in the country who are struggling to cope up with the situation,” Khalid Mehmood Khokhar, President of Pakistan Kissan Ittehad, said. “They are struggling to survive amid the high cost of inputs including electricity, fertilizers, water availability and lack of marketing support.” 
As the government expects inflation during the current fiscal year to be between 6.5 to 7.5 percent, the impact will be more devastating for the country’s agriculture sector, and beyond.
“Slower growth in both the industrial and agriculture sectors will also affect the performance of the services sector. The real GDP growth is projected in the range of 4.7 to 5.2 percent during FY19, the central bank’s annual report said, calling the GDP growth target of 6.2 percent ambitious.
The SBP added: “The industrial sector, in particular, may witness a slowdown due to an expected reduction in consumer demand. More specifically, construction-allied and consumer durable industries may see slower growth in production.”
Dr. Amir Irshad, Chief of Food and Agriculture at the Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms, agrees that the impact of the agriculture sector’s decline would be borne by the economy as a whole but stresses the need for a long-term solution to the existing problem.
“The government takes measures for the quick fixes in the agriculture sector by subsidizing fertilizers and pesticides, etc, but we need a solution for the long term that is the technological advancement, supply of improved seeds,” Irshad told Arab News.
“The required technology costs around PKR1.5-1.7 million per acre yield but the common farmers are not in a position to afford this price… For the moment, I have no alternative in sight but to sell my business,” Shah added.