A critical milestone in Pakistan’s rocky democratic journey
Despite the political turmoil plaguing Pakistan, transition from one elected government to another now appears a reality. Defying the skeptics, the National Assembly has completed its five-year term and an interim prime minister has finally been nominated. The polls are to be held on July 25. The banners are up and the political parties are already at the hustings, unfolding their election pledges.
It will indeed be a critical milestone in the country’s rocky democratic journey. But a major question is whether the much-touted transition could change the existing power dynamics and bring political stability to the country, or would it result in further weakening of the elected bodies, with non-elected institutions filling the void?
Even though Pakistan has entered the longest uninterrupted period of elected civilian rule in its history, democracy remains fragile. While elected governments and political leadership ceded space in policy spheres, the military has increased its overreach into areas outside its professional domain.
With parliament and the civilian law-enforcement agencies rendered ineffective by the elected leadership, weak governance has allowed the judiciary to extend its role. In fact the country is already experiencing a creeping phenomenon of a hybrid political system with the military and the judiciary becoming informal partners in the power structure, along with the elected civilian government.
Lack of crucially required reforms has intensified the challenge to democracy in Pakistan. There has not been any substantive improvement in the fundamental functioning of key democratic institutions. These are the vital issues plaguing the country’s political process. The coming elections are critical to the future of democracy in the country.
It is extremely hard to predict the outcome of any elections, but it is much more difficult in Pakistan given the volatility of the political situation. It is apparent that the ouster of Nawaz Sharif and probable conviction of him and his family will cast a heavy shadow over the elections.
It is evident that the PML (N) will go into the elections playing the victim card and, of course, flaunting its impressive performance in Pakistan’s biggest province of Punjab. The province will also be the main battlegrounds determining who will rule the country. Despite the exodus of some lawmakers and some senior party members and growing division within its ranks, the PML (N) still seems to be leading the opinion polls.
Already barred from the electoral process for life, Nawaz Sharif may be facing the end of his long yet chequered political career, though it is not the end of the Sharif political dynasty. His brother Shahbaz Sharif is likely to be put at the helm if the PML (N) wins the elections. The party will, however, face a tough challenge from the PTI, led by Imran Khan.
It is extremely hard to predict the outcome of any elections, but it is much more difficult in Pakistan given the volatility of the political situation.
Zahid Hussain
Last week, the PTI launched its program for the first 100 days if it comes to power. The 11-point charter of reform pledges to give greater emphasis on human infrastructure such as education, health and environment in sharp contrast to the PML-N’s obsession with motorways and other grand infrastructural projects.
But it remains to be seen whether with this program the PTI will make significant inroads into the PML-N’s bastion of power in Punjab. The party is also going into the polls with a new slogan of “one Pakistan” replacing the old one of “naya (new) Pakistan.”
It is uncertain whether this rather ambiguous slogan could become a rallying point for the electorate. The change of slogan also signifies the changing complexion of the party. Previously a movement for change that inspired voters — particularly the youth — in 2013, the PTI seems to have lost momentum with the mass induction of defectors from other parties, many of them with dubious records.
This transformation has affected the PTI’s image as a party of change. Nevertheless, with a large number of so-called electables in its ranks, the party leadership appears confident it has a better chance of winning the elections. It is a bargain Imran Khan perhaps struck to reach the highest pedestal of power.
Of course, the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) is not out of the contest, despite its minimal presence in Punjab. Its power base in Sindh has remained unchallenged. In the event of a hung parliament, it can emerge as a power broker. Unlike the two other parties, the PPP does not seem to have any new election message. It still seeks to appeal to the voters on the Bhutto legacy; that will surely not work in any other province. So it’s back to the voters to decide.
• Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC. Twitter: @hidhussain
