Hostilities between India and Pakistan continue after 20 years of nuclearization
India and Pakistan carried out a series of nuclear tests in May 1998, ushering in the dawn of the nuclear age which descended upon more than a billion people in this densely populated region.
In classic Cold War East-West style, both countries fashioned their respective nuclear doctrines and embarked on technological quests to ensure the perception of deterrence remained intact. But the Cold War scripts of the nuclear age were hardly applicable to South Asian realities.
Geographic contiguity has made it impossible to prevent the political rhetoric from heating up. The Line of Control in Kashmir has remained by and large a hot front. The insecurities at the heart of the bedeviled relations between Pakistan and India had engendered three major wars. The nuclearization of the region, it was hoped, would make war unimaginable.
India had first carried out a supposedly “peaceful” nuclear explosion termed “the smiling Buddha” in May 1974. For India, possessing nuclear weapons was about status, a ticket to join the elite club of global powers.
But Pakistan could never allow India a nuclear walkover. Capability and intent cannot be taken at face value. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s response was diplomatic. It tried for 24 years to get South Asia declared as a nuclear-weapon-free-zone. But each year, India voted against adopting the resolutions at the UN General Assembly.
Pakistan also proposed a zero-missile zone for South Asia and sought negative security assurances at the UN. All these moves were also opposed by India.
India’s nuclear weapons tests on May 11, 1998 were a clear provocation. Pakistan had no other option but to respond in kind. It carried out its own nuclear tests on May 28 and 30 that year, removing any ambiguities about its capabilities and resolve. In a simple but clear statement, Islamabad announced that the devices tested conformed to weapon configuration capable of delivery. Pakistan had established strategic equilibrium and neutralized India’s conventional preponderance.
At the heart of their adversarial relations is India’s refusal to allow Pakistan to co-exist as an “equal.”
Salman Bashir
Nuclear weapons, together with an effective missile program, were henceforth guarantors of the state’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Twenty years on, Pakistan’s strategic weapons capability is still robust. In all these years, the doctrine of minimum credible deterrence has guided the development of Pakistan’s strategic capabilities on land, air and sea, including second strike options.
At the heart of the intensely adversarial relationship between the two protagonists is India’s refusal to allow Pakistan to co-exist as an “equal.” The nature of this adversarial relation has not changed. India has sought to reassert its conventional superiority by trying dangerous concepts such as the “cold start”, that is to fight a swift war under the nuclear overhang.
Pakistan has frustrated these designs by developing battle field response. In the meantime, India has attempted to field nuclear weapons at sea obliging Pakistan to develop sea-based deterrence.
The Pakistan-India rivalry has now taken the form of sub-conventional or hybrid war carried out across a broad range of domains. This includes fomenting subversion, insurgencies, terrorism with propaganda and cyber components.
The Cold-War mindset of Indian rulers has dictated pursuit of hegemonic agendas by military means in the region. Unless this changes, South Asia would remain relegated to the periphery of Asia’s march to progress and prosperity. The dream of durable peace would continue to elude the peoples of Pakistan and India.
The Pakistani state has no option but to continue developing effective capabilities to deal with the cross-domain security challenges posed by India. On the other hand, it is evident that India remains tied to Pakistan in a strategic equation and cannot escape South Asia’s gravitational pull, therefore blocking its ambition to be rated as a global power.
As a nuclear weapon state, Pakistan should now confidently prioritize economic development and pursue the pathways for profitable commerce and economic cooperation with adjoining resource-rich regions. This is a natural advantage conferred by Pakistan’s unique geography, as a pivot in the Eurasian heartland.
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which promotes connectivity, provides the avenue for building a bright future for the peoples of the region.
− Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as the Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and Ambassador to China and India. Twitter: @SalmanB_Isb
