NEW YORK: When oil prices rocketed toward $60 a barrel this fall, US shale producers hedged more barrels of oil during the quarter than in at least three years, which could help propel the country to record crude production by next year.
More than 144 million barrels were added to hedges, after global oil markets rallied by as much as $13 in the quarter.
Higher prices help producers lock in profits for future sales.
That should guarantee that total production exceeds 10 million bpd in 2018, which would be an all-time record for US drilling.
Traders say growth next year will likely exceed government forecasts, heralding a record year that could pressure prices in the near term.
For oil traders, hedging data from shale companies serves as a leading indicator of future supplies.
“After a slow start in the first half of 2017, US oil producers sped up hedging activities for their 2018 production in third quarter amid the rebound in crude oil prices,” Citigroup analysts said in a note last week.
According to a Reuters analysis of hedging disclosures by the 30 largest US shale firms, most rushed back into hedging in the three months to September 30.
In total, 17 companies increased outstanding oil options, swaps or other derivatives positions by 144 million barrels between the second and third quarter.
Another 10 companies decreased their hedging positions by 31 million barrels; three others did not hedge at all.
Together, the companies have nearly one-third more barrels hedged, or the equivalent of 129 million barrels, compared to the previous quarter.
Reuters compiled the data through information publicly available in quarterly regulatory filings.
Citigroup analysts said the third-quarter hedge ratio — the percentage of production where shale companies have locked in future sales — for 2018 jumped from 12 percent to 27 percent.
For the same period in 2015 and 2016, producers had locked in 15 and 18 percent of the coming year, they said.
Several firms, including Hess Corp., Newfield Exploration Co. and Marathon Oil Corp. loaded up their hedges, and more than doubled volumes last quarter.
Together, they added 74 million barrels.
Among the companies that rolled off the most include Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and EP Energy .
All 30 firms contacted by Reuters either did not respond to a request for comment or referred to questions about strategy to recent earnings calls.
Shale firms are said to have continued adding to hedges in the fourth quarter.
Swap dealer gross shorts data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission , an indicator of producer hedging activity, touched a record in the most recent week.
Last week, a Texas-based producer was said to have hedged some 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2018 in US crude futures, according to two sources familiar with money flows.
US total oil production is expected to rise by 780,000 bpd to 10.02 million bpd next year, which would be a new annual record, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Traders estimate that growth could be as high as 1.2 million bpd, with at least 500,000 bpd to 600,000 bpd out of Texas’s prolific Permian basin alone.
That could complicate an extension by OPEC to curb global supplies through 2018 to keep prices low.
But forecasts for new output may be optimistic, said John Saucer, vice president of research and analysis at Mobius Risk Group in Houston.
“People have modeled in the absolute perfection when it comes to drilling.
I think we’ll see new growth, but there’s a lot of evidence that getting new fracking and completion crews is tough,” he said.
Surge in US shale hedging to boost drilling in 2018
Surge in US shale hedging to boost drilling in 2018
World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn
- Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
- Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience
DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.
Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.
“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.
Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.
“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.
His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.
“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.
Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.
Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.
Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”
President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”
Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.
Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.
She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.
Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.
Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.
Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.
Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”
In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.
“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.
American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”
Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.
“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.
Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.
Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.
“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.
Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier.
“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.
Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.
“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.
The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.
“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.
“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.
Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.
“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.
WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.









