Sudan’s Arab Spring?
Cynics have asserted that if the Arab Spring is to be characterized by forces of political Islam taking over power and mismanaging it, then Sudan had its Arab Spring more than two decades ago.
However, in reality, Sudan seems to be at a crossroads, poised either for a soft landing through political reconciliation that will usher in stability and an agreement on how to tackle its multiple challenges in a more reconciliatory manner, or move into more disputes, wars and possible splits.
Recent developments have indicated that something may be in the offing. High on this is the announcement by President Omar Bashir that he does not want to run again for the presidency because he has “had enough.”
Technically speaking, the president’s current term comes under the 2005 adopted constitution following the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
Because of this arrangement, the 2010 elections that brought Bashir to power could be seen as his first term and as such he is eligible for a second one. However, that is an issue of constitutional debate for those interested.
Given the need for change, his announcement was given additional weight, especially within his ruling National Congress Party (NPC), which sees Bashir as an asset given his long service at the top and his military background, which ensures the backing of the army, a powerful political force in the country.
Addressing the issue, his first Vice President Ali Osman Taha opted to do what politicians call “constructive ambiguity” given the sensitivity of his position as the strongest candidate to replace Bashir, and said that it is up to various NPC bodies to decide on the future of the president.
Taha’s statement is significant as he rarely speaks to the media. This is seen as a deliberate move, as he called for a press conference to convey this message, as well as providing his own version of his meeting while in Germany with Dr. Ali El-Hag, a key figure in the opposition. More importantly, he conceded that it is high time for Sudan to go for comprehensive solutions to its problems instead of the piecemeal approach that has not brought peace to the country nor kept its unity, with South Sudan opting for separation, a development that could be replicated down the road with the Darfur crisis still ongoing 10 years later.
However, given the complexity of the Sudanese political scene and the presence of an international dimension, there is a need to look for a more holistic approach. One of the key issues that needs to be addressed is that of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has indicted Bashir because of Darfur. Because of this indictment, some observers think Bashir will be sticking to his presidential post since it will be his best guarantee against the possibility of landing in The Hague.
This ICC case brings to the fore the debate whether to pursue peace, political settlement or justice. The 2009 indictment against a sitting president has proved to be quite sensational but has failed to achieve anything so far and Bashir was able to move freely more or less, even visiting countries that are signatories to the Rome Statute that established the ICC.
It was interesting to note that last November, the International Crisis Group (ICG) released a report by a Western think-tank on Sudan suggesting for the first time that one way of dealing with Sudan’s mounting problems is to look at both Bashir and NCP as part of the solution. Such a solution depends on taking specific measures to ensure political inclusiveness and democratic transformation. If that is to be carried out, the UN Security Council, which referred the Darfur case to the ICC in the first place, should consider impacting article 16 that allows for the deferral of the indictment.
Putting the pieces together for an all-out, inclusive approach to Sudan’s problems seems to be a possibility with reasonable potential. All it needs is more coordination, more seriousness and above all, a political will that can make breakthrough a real possibility.
If that is to happen, Sudan will present the region with a new version of the Arab Spring. After all, it was the first country to topple two military regimes through peaceful uprisings back in 1964 and 1985.
— This article is exclusive to Arab News
[email protected]
