MILAN: Italy passed a tough market test yesterday as its three-year borrowing costs fell well below 5 percent at an auction hours after Moody's cut the country's rating to two notches above junk status.
The US rating agency surprised markets yesterday by lowering Italy's sovereign debt rating to Baa2 amid persistent worries about Spain's ability to sort out its banking problems, concerns about a Greek exit from the euro and doubts over Italy's long-term resolve to push through much-needed reforms.
Moody's lauded Prime Minister Mario Monti's commitment to fiscal reforms and structural consolidation. But warned it could again cut the country's marks if the next Italian government failed to push through necessary changes.
"The negative outlook reflects our view that risks to implementing these reforms remain substantial. Adding to them is the deteriorating macroeconomic environment, which increases austerity and reform fatigue among the population," it said.
"The political climate, particularly as the spring 2013 elections draw near, is also a source of implementation risk."
Analysts say political uncertainty ahead of elections is the main risk for Italy, where frustration with austerity measures and the country's weak and fragmented party system is stoking anti-European sentiment and has helped the meteoric rise of the populist Five Star Movement, led by comedian Beppe Grillo. Respected technocrat Monti, who was called in last November to pull back Italy from the edge of the cliff and avoid a Greek-style debt crisis, has said he will stand down next year.
Three-times Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who has kept a low profile since being forced out to leave room for Monti, announced this week he will return to frontline politics as the center-right candidate, further muddling the political outlook.
He has taken an increasingly anti-European tone in recent public comments, criticizing Monti's austerity policies and openly questioning the value of remaining in the euro.
"Berlusconi seems to have picked up on the increased sense of frustration within the Italian society that the sacrifices being made by the country are not being sufficiently recognized by the markets and that part of the blame lies in the slow EU policy response," said BNP Paribas analyst Luigi Speranza.
Opinion polls suggest that a center-left bloc would win the elections and it is not yet clear whether Berlusconi's return to front line politics may alter the picture.
The stark warning from Moody's, which comes as investors are already fretting about Spain's ability to mend its banking sector, knocked the euro down about a quarter of a cent overnight and initially sunk Italian bond futures.
The downgrade prompted angry reactions in Italian political and economic circles, with Italian Industry Minister Corrado Passera calling it "altogether unjustified and misleading."
Italian magistrates are currently investigating overall downgrade actions by the three main international rating agencies, which deny vigorously any wrongdoing.
The Italian bond market however recovered some ground as Italy managed to sell 5.25 billion euros in medium and long-term bonds, its top targeted amount, fetching the lowest yield since May on a new three-year issue.
Yet, the yield difference between 10-year Italian government bonds and their German equivalent remained at around 480 basis points, a high level that is frustrating the government in Rome and that Federico Ghizzoni, who heads of Italy's biggest bank by assets UniCredit, has called 'unsustainable'.
Monti this week did not rule out tapping euro zone bailout funds through a new bond-buying system to help ease Italy's borrowing costs, a move that Moody's says could trigger a further downgrade.
Three-year bond yields had risen to a six-month peak of 5.3 percent in June, ahead of a cliffhanger Greek election that some feared may have forced the country out the euro zone and after an unconvincing initial attempt to bail out Spanish banks.
In its comments, Moody's said the probability of Greece leaving the single currency had increased in recent months as well as the likelihood Spain may require external aid.
"In this environment, Italy's high debt and significant annual funding needs of 415 billion euros, 25 percent of GDP, in 2012-13, as well as its diminished overseas investor base, generate increased liquidity risk," Moody's said.
The country's economy is projected to contract by as much as 2 percent, dimming the prospect of implementing reforms.
Moody's took its ratings for Italy below those from agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch, potentially triggering further investment outflows from Italy.
Analysts estimate that foreigners hold about one third of Italy's public debt, down from 40 percent a year ago. Data from Italy's banking association ABI also showed that foreign deposits at Italian banks were down 20 percent year on year.
"This is just Moody's opinion. I think our country, and our manufacturing system, is much stronger than the Moody's evaluation suggests," Italian business association head Giorgio Squinzi said.
Italy passes market test after Moody's downgrade
Italy passes market test after Moody's downgrade
How lifestyle-led real estate is reshaping Saudi Arabia’s urban future
- Government spending, regulatory changes, and incentives for foreign investors are fueling development
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector is entering a new phase, one defined by lifestyle, experience, and quality of life rather than sheer housing volume.
Driven by Vision 2030, lifestyle-focused developments are set to outperform traditional residential projects, reshaping how people live, work, and connect across the Kingdom.
Government spending, regulatory changes, and incentives for foreign investors are also fueling development. Rising demand across residential, commercial, and logistics sectors, along with the push for smart cities and sustainability, is reshaping the market.
Saudi Arabia’s real estate market was valued at $77.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $137.8 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.7 percent from 2026 to 2034, according to IMARC Group.
Lifestyle-focused real estate market
Saudi Arabia’s real estate landscape has evolved beyond conventional housing. Guided by Vision 2030, it now plays a key role in enhancing quality of life, boosting tourism, and driving economic diversification.
According to Sally Menassa, partner at Arthur D. Little, what stands out today is a clear shift from volume-driven residential supply to lifestyle-led, experience-based development.
“As a result, the lifestyle-focused segment is expected to outperform conventional residential real estate, growing at around 8 percent annually over the next five years. This growth is being driven by changing consumer expectations, population growth, rising incomes, and the scale of public investment shaping new urban environments,” Menassa said.
She added that demand in the Kingdom’s real estate is rising across four key segments: mixed-use districts near urban hubs such as King Salman Park; wellness-focused communities prioritizing walkability and services; coastal living along the Red Sea with branded residences; and heritage-driven districts like Diriyah and Al Balad that blend culture, hospitality, and long-term value.
“Overall, this marks a fundamental shift in the Kingdom. Real estate is no longer an end in itself and about delivering buildings; it is becoming a platform for place-making, economic diversification, and sustained value creation,” the ADL partner explained.
From another perspective, Houssem Jemili, senior partner at Bain and Co. Middle East said: “Saudi’s real estate market is forecast at roughly 7–8 percent CAGR to 2030; ‘lifestyle’ demand is being pulled most by amenity-led mixed-use communities plus higher-spec, greener and wellness-leaning homes.”
A report from PwC Middle East released in 2025 focused on the future of sustainable real estate in Saudi Arabia, and showed that the sector is shifting toward livability-focused, high-quality urban developments. Giga-projects are driving demand for mixed-use, wellness-focused, and socially connected communities that enhance quality of life.
Imad Shahrouri, cities sector lead partner, consulting, in Riyadh at PwC Middle East said: “By placing livability and human experience at the foundation of its urban agenda, Saudi Arabia is shaping a market where lifestyle-led developments will play an increasingly influential role in driving demand and investment.”
Core lifestyle elements developers are prioritizing
Saudi developers are shifting from the traditional “build and sell” model to creating integrated lifestyle communities focused on long-term value and everyday living.
Menassa from ADL highlighted that the shift centers on enhancing public spaces — with walkable areas, parks, and wellness facilities — to promote healthier, more social lifestyles, especially for a younger, health-focused population.
“Convenience is also playing a bigger role in shaping residential districts. Schools, childcare centers, clinics, co-working spaces and a wide range of food and beverage options are increasingly located within walking distance of homes, reducing commuting time and making everyday life more efficient and connected,” she said.
The partner added: “Equally important is the role of culture and social activity. Many developments now incorporate cultural venues, entertainment spaces and destination dining, ensuring that neighborhoods remain active throughout the day and week rather than becoming dormant outside working hours.”
Menassa went on to stress that real estate in Saudi Arabia is evolving into a strategic tool for quality of life, tourism, and talent attraction. Driven by Vision 2030, developments now integrate smart infrastructure and global lifestyle standards, while staying rooted in local culture to meet the needs of a young, urban population.
FASTFACT
Driven by Vision 2030, lifestyle-focused developments are set to outperform traditional residential projects, reshaping how people live, work, and connect across the Kingdom.
From Bain’s lens, Jemili said: “Developers are prioritizing livable neighborhoods. Walkability, parks and sport, culture and entertainment access, and everyday convenience, shaped by Vision 2030’s Quality of Life agenda and the 70 percent homeownership-by-2030 push.”
Shahrouri from PwC shed light on how developers in the Kingdom prioritizing livability, wellbeing, and inclusive, community-focused spaces are, aligning with Vision 2030’s push to enhance daily life and promote social integration while reflecting local identity.
“As a result, lifestyle-led elements such as walkable neighborhoods, activated public spaces and integrated community facilities are becoming central to new destinations, ensuring future developments foster more connected, resilient and experience-rich ways of living,” he said.
Regions, cities key hubs for experiential development
Several Saudi cities are emerging as prominent centers for lifestyle-focused, experiential development, each defined by its unique urban and economic character.
From ADL’s perspective, Riyadh is leading this shift as it positions itself as a global capital. The city is seeing strong demand for integrated, mixed-use districts that support live-work-play lifestyles.
“Developments such as KAFD, Diriyah, and areas surrounding King Salman Park reflect a growing preference for urban living that combines employment, culture, green space, and entertainment in close proximity,” Menassa said.
“Jeddah’s appeal is different, but equally compelling. Its strength lies in its coastal character, historic fabric, and more relaxed urban rhythm. Waterfront regeneration and heritage-led districts, particularly around Al Balad, are driving interest in developments that blend walkability, culture, and sea-facing lifestyles — attracting residents, investors, and tourists alike,” she added.
The partner continued to underline that destination developments along the Red Sea coast focus on sustainable, low-density communities blending hospitality, nature, and residential living, promoting wellness and eco-tourism.
Menassa noted that secondary cities like Abha and AlUla are emerging as hubs for outdoor living, culture, and heritage, supported by government policies and investments.
These lifestyle-driven districts appeal to residents for livability and job access, and to investors for scale and stability, offering resilience through everyday services and cultural experiences.
From Bain’s side, Jemili explained that Riyadh and Jeddah stand out as the main hubs because they combine jobs, population growth, liquidity and are where “integrated community” formats scale fastest.
“We’re seeing the same in Makkah and Madinah; the focus is shifting from delivering more units to delivering higher-quality development and standards,” he said.
From PwC’s perspective, Shahrouri noted that regions across Saudi Arabia are becoming hubs for lifestyle-driven development, with large-scale regeneration creating sustainable, well-designed environments that enhance urban living and attract global investment.
“Flagship projects are reshaping their surroundings by focusing on the character and feel of place, bringing together community elements, environmental responsibility, and integrated urban design.”
Their growing appeal comes from the balance they strike between modern infrastructure and a human-centered approach to planning, creating destinations where daily life feels more seamless and connected,” he said.
Next phase of Saudi real estate evolution
The next phase of Saudi Arabia’s real estate evolution is likely to be defined by integration, intelligence, and regeneration.
From ADL’s lens, Menassa explained that Riyadh is set to feature highly vertical, dense urban environments designed for land efficiency and sustainability, with fully integrated live-work-play ecosystems that reduce commuting, boost productivity, and enhance social cohesion.
“The real shift, however, is toward AI-enabled and data-driven communities, where energy, mobility, and services are actively managed rather than passively consumed. Real estate will increasingly be judged not by how much is sold, but by how well places perform — in terms of livability, productivity, and environmental outcomes,” she said.
The partner noted that Saudi Arabia is boosting private sector involvement, public-private partnerships, and institutional investments to develop public spaces and social infrastructure. The focus is shifting from just constructing cities to designing lifestyles, using real estate as a key driver for economic growth and social transformation.
Jemili from Bain said: “The next phase is more about operating districts like platforms, digital twins, and real-time data to optimize energy, maintenance, mobility, and resident experience, creating tighter live-work-play loops. Rather than ‘building more.’”
From PwC’s side, Saudi Arabia is building a strong foundation for future cities by focusing on resilient, resource-efficient developments and adaptable infrastructure, paving the way for smart, connected urban models like vertical districts and digital neighborhoods.
“These emerging environments are set to respond more naturally to the needs of their communities. As the quality and experience of urban life continue to rise, our cities are poised to become more intelligent, enriching and future ready, evolving with their residents and reflecting the ambition of a nation transforming at pace,” Shahrouri concluded.
